Advertisement
Help Keep Boards Alive. Support us by going ad free today. See here: https://subscriptions.boards.ie/.
https://www.boards.ie/group/1878-subscribers-forum

Private Group for paid up members of Boards.ie. Join the club.
Hi all, please see this major site announcement: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058427594/boards-ie-2026

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

1926927929931932944

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    I've never seen good evidence that there's a net exodus of rental properties from the market. The evidence, such as it is, shows the opposite. The other thing I think that needs to be questioned is the idea that large and increasing numbers of landlords, such as we have here, are a good thing for the country.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 157 ✭✭cleanfarmer2025


    Landlords are not leaving the market at all.

    All you hear is landlords complain all the time and threatening to leave. What are they going to do with their 300k cash if they sell up? Leave it in the bank and let it depreciate away every year? Not likely.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The whole landlords fleeing the market thing is nonsense and is masking a bigger problem.

    Estate agents report high % of sellers are LLs and use this to lobby govt and influence policy, thus media and talking heads lap it up.

    Hiding in plain sight is the obvious issue that if number of LLs is actually increasing but higher percentages of sales are LLs selling, then it points to the biggest problem being the low total number of properties for sale.

    Not enough private households are selling, turnover in the market is very low compared to long term norms. The market is clogged up and this is the problem thats needs to be addressed. The attention is all focussed in the wrong direction.

    But this is lost in the widespread appetite for panic and doom and gloom. Sadly it's typical of commentary and analysis of the Irish property market at all levels.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 22,120 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    There is no evidence of an increase in LL's. The RTB says there is an increase if new registrations but thre is not an increase in properties available. It's hard to know if LL's are exiting bit there is nothing to indicate an increase in supply.

    You would presume that new supply would appear on daft, but there is little or no supply on Daft.

    However there are many things that can skew RTB figures. Take a situation where an individual has a house or apartment and is using a rent a room, moves in with a partner and then rents his home to his orginal tenant and another individual and registers with the RTB. There has been a certain amount of regularisation by LL's where they were not registered and have registered with the RTB over the last 2-3 years.

    One I have personally come across is where a LL had multiple properties, he transferred 4 of them ( not his total portfolio) to his four adult children 3 of whom had there own homes who continue to rent them and I presume have registered with the RTB. The 4th moved into the property that was transferred to him. The LL has disposed of at least one more which was purchased by an owner occupier. So we have a net decrease in supply of two and a possible increase in RTB registrations of three.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Again this is just anecdotal observations used to cast doubt on CSO and RTB data.

    This is exactly why we cannot solve the current problems.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 22,120 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    I am not sure about CSO figures. Last census was 2022, the RTB has indicated an increase in registrations. However ask anyone looking for a property to rent is there much out there. All we hear about is of evictions which h the RTB has made harder and harder

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Ok, so do you think asking anyone looking for a property if there is much out there contradicts RTB data showing an increase in tenancies and landlords?

    I believe this doesn't have to be contradictory. It is is possible to have shortage of supply on the market and an increase in tenancies and landlords.

    And if that is correct it requires a different approach to solve the problem, than if the number of landlords/tenancies are genuinely falling and the RTB data is unreliable.

    That is why it is such an important distinction, and it is damaging to rush to rubbish the best available data we have.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,993 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    A few years ago there was the LLs stuck at the lower end of the market exiting and that was causing average rents to jump >10% but that cohort will all be long gone by now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 22,120 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    There is always a bottom 10% of any market and rents are rising so fast there is an incentive to leave properties empty for 24 months to reset rents or because of high property prices to sell.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Pretty good argument for a stiff meaningful vacancy tax. And it would also solve the problem of doubt over the RTB figures.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,993 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Remember saying during Covid that I thought a lot of LLs would hold out the extra few months to get over the two year threshold. Never got round to looking at the 2023 stats to see whether this came true as I was long gone by then.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Revenue now getting in on the act with data to disprove the LLs fleeing the market scaremongering.

    It should be obvious to anybody that if Revenue data shows almost 4 out every 5 new homes are being bought by LLs it is not surprising that RTB data shows rental stock is increasing.

    https://www.rte.ie/radio/radio1/clips/22538693/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Not true SF interpretation of Revenue. Lots of things said match what I said with small landlords being pushed out and large companies replacing them. But according to these figures the number of new landlords is only 4% by small landlords not even new landlords. Can you marry these figures up with the increase in landlords and tenancies?

    When the new rules come in where owning 5 or more rentals comes in expect to see an increase in the number of landlords. If first time buyer are buying 2nd house that means some are buying old rentals as no landlord is buying a previous rental. It is a lot more complex than you think



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,789 ✭✭✭tigger123


    Is there any counter argument to the claim that 79% of private homes sold in Dublin were bought by landlords?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Where is the proof other than a claim by SF? Your statement is wrong anyway if you actually listened to what they said



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,085 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    I wouldn't be lecturing people on what is wrong, still waiting for you to admit that you were wrong from last week.

    Post edited by Rocket_GD on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,789 ✭✭✭tigger123


    Didn't they the data as a response to a Parliamentary Question?

    I'm not being difficult, I'm genuinely asking.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,708 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    I'd be interested in hearing this too, just about to give that recording a listen. Absolutely shocking if true.

    I have noticed that a lot of houses selling over the last few years around me in D7 all seem to have AirB&B lock boxes appear out front a few months later. Wouldn't be registering in that 79%, mind you.

    So if the 79% is true it would be even higher if you factored in AirB&B too



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,789 ✭✭✭tigger123


    If it is true, its genuinely shocking.

    Btw, I'm not trolling or on the wind up here, I just know how often these things have claims and counter claims.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,708 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    Good post from Reddit Ireland where someone ran some of the numbers from the stats, don't look to be adding up against SF's 79% claim:

    'No, I can't see where they are getting 79% from.

    The stats on house purchases are in table HPA02 from the CSO, and it splits the types of buyers into:

    • First‑Time Buyers (FTBs): People buying their first home
    • Former Owner‑Occupiers: People moving from one home to another
    • Non‑Occupiers: Buyers purchasing property without living in it, e.g. mostly landlords or buy‑to‑let investors
    • Non‑Household Buyers: Various entities that are not individuals like private companies, charitable organisations, State bodies, pension funds, Approved Housing Bodies (AHBs), Local Authorities etc.

    The breakdown for each (2024) for County Dublin:

    Buyer Category

    Volume of Sales (2024)

    Proportion of Total Sales (%)

    Household Buyer - Former Owner-Occupier

    9,903

    41.7%

    Non-Household Buyer

    6,203

    26.1%

    Household Buyer - First-Time Buyer Owner-Occupier

    6,181

    26.0%

    Household Buyer - Non-Occupier

    1,473

    6.2%

    Total

    23,760

    100.0%

    About 80-90% of dwellings bought by Non‑Occupiers and about 20% of dwellings bought by non‑Household Buyers could be classed as "bought by a landlord". A small proportion of Former Owner-Occupier and First-Time Buyer Owner-Occupier might be landlords too (67.7% of purchases).

    So, I think the proportion of dwellings bought by landlords in County Dublin in 2024 was ~15%.

    I don't see how they got 79% without some massaging of figures.

    They might have restricted their stats to a small geographic area e.g. DCC or part of, or just new homes (rare in DCC), and specifically new apartments in DCC.'



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Your lack of understanding is not my problem. I am not wrong you didn't understand and still don't. The headline quote is a weird reference to new builds not ALL purchases so misleading and you fell for it



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,789 ✭✭✭tigger123


    I've since seen on Reddit that it relates to DCC only.

    It's pretty shocking that RTE wouldnt pull them up on that element of it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    I don't know I only listened to the clip and the headline is misleading as it is not about all sales and doesn't seem to marry up with other information



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,085 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    Are you actually doubling down when multiple posters provided evidence that proved you to be wrong?

    Sorry it's everyone else and the statistics that were wrong, not yourself, carry on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    You never understood and still don't. I don't have to double down as you and others never proved me wrong. You just repeated yourselves and don't understand the argument. I don't need your validation or approval but you seem to want me to give you some. The argument is over



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,085 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    There was never an argument, it was multiple people providing you with evidence that disproved your belief while you put your head in the sand and said "I know people selling" or "I'm in the industry", none of which were in anyway relevant.

    We have clear evidence on side, you have an anecdotal opinion, only ever one winner there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,526 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Its based on property tax figures from Revenue apparently. You can bet by this stage, multiple days later, that if it was wrong the media and other parties would have been delighted to correct SF on such a high profile claim.

    Its a shocking figure, and it does also add further evidence to the whole "landlords are fleeing the market" trope being completely untrue.

    "landlords queing up to enter the market in large numbers" is it in reality I guess.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 419 ✭✭ingo1984


    Wouldn't waste any more breath. Sure there's still people who think the earth is flat despite all evidence to the contrary.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,708 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    It seems to be a figure that applies to a certain subset of data if you whittle it down. However this isn't mentioned in the headline, which is quite sensationlist and misleading.

    Check out the actual figures in this post:



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The RTE report and SF comment relate to new build sales transactions. That was kind of the point being made.

    The data you're referencing in the reddit post to refute this point is all residential transactions, i.e including second hand sales.



Advertisement
Advertisement