Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring /Summer 2025

Poor outcomes from the models with predicting thunderstorms lately . Certainly got the heavy convective rain but not enough energy to push the clouds that one step further apart from short lived activity .

Tomorrow some of the models, especially the ECM showing potential in the SW especially Kerry, hinting at it the last couple of runs but full on from the latest run especially Kerry in the afternoon. I would have more confidence if it is showing it as such on the next run. Borderline stuff to see how close or over the SW the occluded front comes. Plenty of heat and humidity overland and the topography would aid lift if some convection moved in overland.The ECM shows a lot of energy along the front but it is the kind of subtle set up that could change in the next run, will see.

Edit: spelling.

ECM sticking to its guns showing the potential for Thunderstorms in the SW, mainly over Kerry and some severe storms possible showing up on the indices, got it wrong recently for up around Sligo but been on this now a few runs. AROME showing thunderstorm possibility later this evening. A lot of the activity may be over water and around the coast, but some overland also, will see the next run if it holds its prediction .

Some activity mainly off the coast but some close to the W Cork coast also.

Getting very dark here out by the coast near Tralee and can hear thunder approaching and seen a flash. Looks like very heavy rain on the way.

Was indeed there for a while, can still hear distant thunder, but the storm passed over here fairly quickly, actually have noticed how quick the storms have been moving today. A lot of power outages ,can see the tracks of the different storms.