Sixth Generation Fighter Development

In fairness the M4 evolved over a very long time and it's ancestors weren't trouble free.

Some photos via Reddit of the GCAP mock-up on display at the London DSEI 2025 arms exhibition. It gives some idea of the size of the proposed fighter. Taking the fence panels at 2.3mtrs, it gives a probable length of at least 20mtrs. I can't really make out a frame of reference for the wingspan but the expectation is for 17mtrs.

A big auld beast that will likely have a massive fuel fraction for the range the consortium is after.

It is, there seems to be a growing consensus that GCAP will be a delta rather than the rhomboid wing.
Personally, I dont know which it will be but, I do think given the importance of range to Japan & UK that it will be the delta or a very slight rhomboid.
It offers the most volume for fuel along advantages for wing loading, stealth shaping and altitude performance.
There is a lot of speculation that the fuel fraction for GCAP will be about 0.35 and perhaps as high as 0.40 on a par with the MiG31.

Theres also a growing suggestion that GCAP may not be designed with supercruise in mind, due to the difficulty inherent in masking IR at that speed.
So that fuel fraction would equate to even more range or time on station.
The PIRATE sensor already in use on Eurofighter has demonstrated capability against F22 at range and it would seem that GCAP is focused on broadband and multispectrum LO, so whilst Supersonic is part and parcel of the design and necessary for a lot of missions and launch profiles, supercruise as a normal SOP may well be out.

The UK and Japan certainly need that range for their proposed use case and it would fit more with the platform being a long range strike and SEAD/DEAD asset than a pure Air Superiority fighter.
The potential range on offer should also be of interest to Australia and their use case, esp with the idea floated a few years ago that the B21 would suit their needs better than the AUKUS subs.
It would also give Italy an aircraft capable of covering the entire Med from Italian bases without A2A refuelling.
If they can leverage BAe experience with LO to give a good broadband stealth platform far exceeding F35.

I think it might have been Bill Sweetman who described the potential final layout of GCAP as a modern Vulcan.
The Delta will give good 1 turn performance but that it won't be a pure "fighter", that its a A2A performance will very much rely on 1st look, 1st shot built around sensor performance and fusion as well missile performance (Meteor NG and so on).
Versus the F22 interpretation of that philosophy which also placed manueverability and performance at prime.

In what is a very welcome development as far as the USN and it's position as the tip of the spear in the Pacific is concerned.
It looks increasingly likely that FA-XX will proceed and that down selection will be imminent.

I won't make any predictions as to the "winner" but Northrop Grumman leadership have said...

Airbus CEO making very clear that they and by extension, Germany are at their limit with Dassault and the FCAS bollox acting.

Speaking on the margins of the company’s quarterly financial earnings call, the CEO of the multinational aeroplane manufacturer told media that it is obvious that their French partner is not satisfied and want to renegotiate the agreed work share of the project to build Europe’s sixth-generation fighter jet, networked with a system of drones (FCAS).

“So if they’re not happy with what was decided and they don’t agree to continue in this setup, they are free to decide to move out of FCAS,” Faury said.

Dassault, France’s prime contractor in the €100 billion project, has made clear it clear that it wants a stronger leading role in developing the jet part of the aviation combat system, even mentioning that it would prefer to develop a next-generation fighter on its own instead of continue working together with Germany’s Airbus Defence. Given that France withdrew from two earlier European fighter jet projects – including the Eurofighter – the threat is not an empty one.

Airbus may well seek to tie in with SAAB (Who have recently had Swedish govt funding for 6th Gen design studies)
The German/Swedish tie up makes a lot of sense in the medium term in terms of what they need in terms of spec and in being able to drop the carrier capable variant too.

France/Dassault are rapidly approaching the limit of what they can afford to develop independently.
I mentioned before that I thought France could/would invite India to FCAS as part of a broader strategy to sell Rafale.
If Dassault pull out?
India would IMHO be the ideal replacement in terms of funding and operational need, both land based and naval for FCAS.
Without a partner willing to invest similar funding as Germany?
FCAS can't proceed solely as a French project, it is unaffordable and failure to proceed with a European partner nation?
Is a blow to the veneer of European solidarity.

Not at all mad regarding India.
The development of FCAS in particular, needs capital.
France and Dassault are seeking control of FCAS to an extent Germany in particular aren't happy about.

France have the technical capacity to develop the Airframe, Engines, Materials and Software relatively independently.
What France doesn't have?
Is the capital to do so alone.

India are facing intense pressure from the SIno/Pak adoption and deployment of 5th Gen fighters.
Let alone the collapse in Indian AF squadron numbers.

There is growing speculation that during Macron's visit next month that the Rafale deal for 114 jets will be announced.
Worthy of note in that, is that despite the push for "Make In India" that only 30% of the aircraft will be of Indian origin.
India, may feel that going in with France as a source of capital for FCAS is their quickest path to realistic deployment timeframes.

Especially when the delays of Tejas, Tejas MK2, TEDBF & AMCA are considered.
India does not have the technical capacity to undertake such parallel development, especially as they still have yet to produce an effective engine.

India can probably gain transfer of technology and especially engine tech with sufficient investment in Rafale and subsequently FCAS.
A similar proposition to their FGFA deal with Russia.

The outgoing Eurofighter consortium, has already split.
Germany and Spain are with France in the FCAS camp.
Albeit Germany are becoming more and more disenchanted with the French office politics. (That said, I believe France/Germany will resolve their issues).

Italy, UK & Japan are the 3 programme leads for the GCAP programme.
The Saudis are being courted as are the Swedes.
The Saudis can contribute little except cash, whereas the Swedes really can contribute technical knowledge and experience.
The courting of Saudi Arabia is an example of precisely why both programmes would seek to offer India a seat at their table.

Similarly, both would take South Korea although they are a more attractive partner in terms of technical knowledge and capital.

Japan & indeed should South Korea join either of the Euro 6th gen programmes?
Would both IMHO be happy to have India on board too as an counterbalance to China on their western border.
Japan have already floated the possibility of India joining GCAP.

Don't fall into a trap of believing that without an advanced technology to immediately contribute that India would not be welcomed on board either programme.
All they need is a cheque book.

100% agree regarding Indian procurement.
Which is one of the reasons I believe India will, despite the efforts of DRDO and HAL need to buy foreign.
The Japanese have already made noises for bringing them into GCAP.
France may well feel that if there is a deal to be had with the Indians?
That they are best placed to do it and it will give them huge advantage in bringing Germany to heel if they can offset their % of the costs with a different partner.

The deal mooted for next month includes 90 Rafale F4 and 24 of the Rafale F5 variant that's due post 2030.

Safran have teamed up with DRDO on an Engine development deal for the AMCA that includes a 100% transfer of technology.

France has also given India full transfer of technology including AIP for the P75/Scorpene programme.
The range of technology that the French have already been willing to sell is honestly astounding.

Now I agree with Labre34 that India is playing all sides, buying oil and weapons from Russia and allowing approx 2 million Indians to take working visas inside Russia let alone how ever many Indians have signed on for the Russian army.

Ideally, that alone would see France reconsider offering them anything when it comes to arms deals.

But?

For the same reason that Japan has lobbied for India to be included in GCAP.

France would IMHO quite happily accept India as a partner in FCAS.

That India has little of comparable military tech to contribute apart from perhaps the Uttam radar and it's GaN modules?

Won't matter as long as India can provide either programme sufficient capital.

Both Programme primes in the Euro 6th Gen effort see China as a primary adversary.

They will both carefully balance the risk of technology leak and espionage that including India in their programmes would cause, and both will IMHO see that it's less a risk than allowing China & Pakistan to overpower India.

It's also important to note that Japan has already floated Indian participation in GCAP while acknowledging the risks mentioned earlier.

Of both the Euro 6th gen programmes.
The FCAS and it's potential carrier variant versus the quite large Airframe of the GCAP with no carrier variant.
Means IMHO that the FCAS is the most suitable for India,especially given existing relationships with Dassault & Safran along with long experience of French systems.

I mean…it's not as if the tiny order that our little DF is going to change the world order is it?

In 6th Gen news, the FA-XX has again been reprieved by Congress.
The experienced heads there see the absolute neccessity for the USN to operate aircraft that can guarantee (Or so they hope) a degree of air superiority against China's J20 and J35.
In particular, there is specific prohibition of any further effort to delay or cancel the FA-XX without congressional approval.

“The agreement notes the Full-Year Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2025 provided $453,828,000 to align to the program’s acquisition schedule which assumed a March 2025 award for engineering and manufacturing development (EMD),” the statement adds. “However, rather than proceeding with a Milestone B award, the Department expended nearly all fiscal year 2025 funding on contract extensions with minimal demonstrated value to the program.”

“Further, the Secretary of the Navy is directed, not later than 45 days after the enactment of this Act, to submit a report to the congressional defense committees that details: (1) the current acquisition strategy and updated schedule for awarding the EMD contract; (2) a revised development and fielding, imeline for the F/A-XX program to meet IOC; (3) any programmatic, budgetary, or policy barriers that have delayed execution of prior-year funds; and (4) a spend plan for the active year additional funds that have been appropriated to the Department of Defense for this program,” it continues.

In addition, the text of the draft legislation includes an explicit provision that compels the Secretary of Defense to obligate funding “for the purpose of executing the engineering and manufacturing development contract for the Next Generation Fighter aircraft in a manner that achieves accelerated Initial Operational Capability.” It blocks the use of any funding appropriated for F/A-XX to “pause, cancel, or terminate” the program, as well.

The problem of the United States going rogue is not something this continent can afford to wait to act on.

Future fighters are almost irrelevant to a problem that is clear and present.

Europe, right now, has to begin to divest from American technology.

Which means putting the brakes on F-35 acquisitions and a vast, unprecedented increase in the production in Rafale F4, Typhoon Tranche V and JAS-39 Gripen E/F, with commensurate replacement of everything else that comes from America like avionics and radar and fire control systems across the air forces and navies.

It will pose particular problems for naval airwing operators of the F35 like the UK and Italy, but the Americans showed us the way themselves when they split the roles of the ridiculously fragile and complex F-22 into UAVs and a boat load of simple retro-modded F-15EX fighters.

Europe needs to do the same. Simple, proven, lots of.

Maybe even think about a modern build run of the Sea Harrier

A necessary step but the bare minimum they can do tbh.
As it stands, that funding will upgrade 40 of the Typhoons to ECRS MK2 radar.
Out of a total of 102 Typhoon currently in service.

The UK, even moreso than Ireland TBH, as we are not seeking to impose ourselves via a Gucci air force in ME or elsewhere.
Desperately need to add airframes and squadrons to their combat jet fleet.
It also highlights the absolutely urgent need Ireland has in shifting away from reliance on an overstretched RAF for our Air Policing needs.

102 Typhoons and 39 F35B are barely sufficient for UK Air Defence, let alone overseas deployments.
Especially given Typhoon service rates of 80%+ and F35B fully mission capable rates of less than 40%.

First thing to look for is which of Trumps idiot sons is an investor.