US/EU trade talks go down to the wire

RoyalCelt · 28-07-2025 10:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123678588#Comment_123678588

Time to trim the fat as they say and become more efficient.

Tony EH · 28-07-2025 10:44PM

To all of those saying that this is somehow a "win" for the US and a "loss" for the EU, how would you have wanted the EU to react to Trump's tariff bullying?

Frank Bullitt · 28-07-2025 10:54PM

Reposting this for coverage from the other Trump thread, props to @Flex

"With regard the EU-US trade deal, I was very disappointed with the headline summaries. However, I think much of it is just a concession to let Trump look like hes got a great deal

$600b of investment in the US by the EU looks like a huge headline. However,
- none of that money will come from the EU budget, it will only be from private firms.
- Currently EU firms invest $2.5t in the US, so this would be a 20% increase, which was forecasted to increase naturally.
- The EU has been clear they cant and wont compell EU businesses to invest there,
- so its just a nice PR headline for Trump

Similar the $750b of energy purchase from the USA was planned and in motion from the RePower EU plan in 2022 to pivot from Russian energy to Norway/Mid East/USA.
- If anything its just accelerating what was already planned, not new demand.
- Further, the US supplies about $60b of enery to the EU a year now, I amnt familiar with that industry or their infrastructure, but I think the US will struggle to quadruple their output to meet demand,
- so I suspect this is just another headline number

The 15% tariff will include a lot of 'zero-for-zero' industries and sectors,
- Ive read sectors identified account fo around 40% of EU exports.
- Very simple maths here, but if successful, that would leave the other 60% of exports with a 15% tariff,
- so weighted average means a total effective tariff rate of around ~9%.

No public money committed, no structural shift in energy or investment policy, and real tariffs softened through exemptions.

Still unhappy with this as it gives a dangerous and shameless regime a nice PR win, however to me this demonstrates that the EU’s greatest weakness its lack of deep political union. When negotiating with a single, centralised power like the US lead by an unstable dangerous narcessist and his lackeys, the EU’s need to balance the needs and wants of 27 members (some wanting a firm line, others to avoid trade wars at all costs, others to keep the US sweet so they dont abandon NATO yet, and others being stooges of Trumps acting like a Trojan horse to **** up and slow things down), its Parliament, and its Commission, means it need s to spend more time and energy just trying to establish a cohesive stable base and an actual set of concise objectives, unlike Trump and co.

As the EU exists today it will have economic power but lack the political union and integration to be able to effectively stand toe to toe with the likes of the USA, China, BRICS nations soon…. We need deeper union in my view, and sooner rather than later"

So again, this is a framework, not an actual trade deal (details matter in a trade deal). The EU would have known how to deal with Trump from the get go, his tactic of disruptive bargaining just doesn't work in a trade deal.

Underneath it all, Trump has been played yet again, and he has lived up to his TACO reputation, 30% tariffs to 15%…this is a win?

The EU could have played it better, but this is not the home-run that Trump and his ilk think it is.

kippy · 28-07-2025 11:14PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123678723#Comment_123678723

Nobody really knows as there's zero detail. This is just a framework with the detail to be worked out. How much exposure does Irish agriculture have to the US market and are there other markets that can be targeted to mitigate against any negative effects would be two core questions.

Peregrinus · 29-07-2025 02:58AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123676382#Comment_123676382

The UK deal isn't that preferential. It's better than the EU deal, but not by an order of magnitude. Compare the two:

Baseline tariffs on imports into the US: UK 10%; EU 15%.

Baseline tariff on exports from US: UK commits to reduce to 1.8% (average); EU has no commitment. (Current EU average is about 2.3%.)

Steel and aluminium: Exempt from US tariff under UK deal. However UK produces very small amounts of steel and aluminium. Tariffed at 50% under EU deal.

Cars imported to US: Under UK deal 10% tariff only applies to 100,000 units per year, which is about the UK's historic level of car exports to UK; anything above that attracts 27.5% tariff, so UK is effectively prohibited from increasing its auto exports to US. Under EU deal 15% tariff applies without limit.

Cars exported by US: UK is committed to reduce its 10% tariff. (Implication is that it will be reduced to zero, but this is not stated in the agreement. No timescale is stated.) EU has no commitment to reduce its 10% tariff.

Investment and import commitments: Under the EU deal the EU commits to $750 billion in U.S. energy purchases, $600 billion in investments, but these commitments are vague and unlikely to be delivered. There is no sanction for non-delivery. The UK deal contains no similar commitments.

The main reason the UK deal is better is because the baseline tariff is 10%, instead of 15%. But to get that the UK had to commit to reduce its own tariffs, which the EU isn't doing. So we can summarise the UK deal by saying that the UK accepts a substantial increase in US tariffs, and in return commits to reducing its own tariffs.

Does that look like a preferential deal to you?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123676433#Comment_123676433

This cuts both ways — there's no incentive for a future administration to undo any of the deals, but there's equally no incentive for any of the counterparties to stick to them.

Fun fact: none of the Trump trade deals are legally binding — this is expressly stated, in every case. So either side is free to walk away at any time.

And, of course, the less the EU, the UK, Japan, etc get under their respective deals — and none of them get very much — then the lower the cost of walking away. So pretty much the last thing the EU has done here is to lock any kind of permanency to its agreement.

sock.rocker* · 29-07-2025 04:27AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123678880#Comment_123678880

I'm sure they want tariffs but wouldn't want them on anything they personally buy.

eastie17 · 29-07-2025 05:07AM

does anyone know why the Irish media are full on misery mode on this? We’re all gonna die is the general headline.

Ian Guider on the last word on today fm was nearly beside himself with the misery yesterday.

I work for a us mnc with ops in Ireland and this tariff really won’t make any tangible diffference to ops, indeed there is a current plan for more investment and the tariffs aren’t considered an impact. Anyone know why the misery?

Infini · 29-07-2025 06:55AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123679134#Comment_123679134

Pretty good assesment of the agreements IMO, from what I can see so far the stuff that the EU agreed to is essentially stuff that was already agreed to in the first place. Its not new stuff just rehashed stuff like defence spending and such. I think all the negativity is more to do with allowing Trump to gloat and seemingly get his own way despite it being a hollow victory. It also is in the EUs interest at times to kick the can down the road as time does tend to favour them. Remember Tariffs are Import Taxes on Americans not a tax on the EU itself and this can backfire in the long run in terms of inflation on the far side of the Atlantic.

The HorsesMouth · 29-07-2025 07:28AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123679146#Comment_123679146

It's probably because misery seems to be the default point of the Irish media since covid. Even taking the latest conflict between Iran and the US, the headlines from the media here were ridiculous. "THE WORLD ON THE BRINK" and all that. Whereas in real life it was never going to to be anything other than a side show involving both sides show boating for their audience. As for the tariffs, I heard that for eg the likes of Kerrgold already pay 16% customs/tariffs whatever you like to call it and so they won't be affected, as in it won't be 15% on top. And same with many other eu businesses.

So while no one likes a tariffs (apart from one person) and it's not ideal, it certainly isn't the end of the world and anyone who says it is is just looking for clicks and sells.

thatsdaft · 29-07-2025 08:17AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123679134#Comment_123679134

The UK one is a lot more than 10%
Because of one keyword anti EU brigade keep ignoring

let me highlight those keywords from gov UK site

“The US has announced that it will impose an additional 10% tariff on top of existing US duties, fees and taxes on imports from the UK. ”

thatsdaft · 29-07-2025 08:19AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123679194#Comment_123679194

That’s not how tarrifs work tho

That exporters pay for tarrifs as a talking point is an incredible lie that Trumpers somehow managed to push out there

When it’s the US consumers who ultimately pay Trump tax

rock22 · 29-07-2025 10:01AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123679243#Comment_123679243

Which will be a federal tax gain, allowing Mr Trump and the Republicans to lower Federal taxes for the rich, as they have promised. It is the only way the Republicans can tax the poor while at the same time giving tax cuts to the very wealthy.

The HorsesMouth · 29-07-2025 11:11AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123679243#Comment_123679243

I know the story with tariffs but just pointing out that the 15% proposed is the same as what people have to pay for kerry gold for example. And that's not going to change apparently. This is only something I read from an economist who's name I can't remember.

Danzy · 29-07-2025 11:14AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123678880#Comment_123678880

It's a loss for the EU but the loss could have been bigger so they are going with that.

They didn't want this but have to accept it, that's a loss.

They can't do much in retaliation, the EU sells more to America than vice versa and have more to lose, it's also been largely economically stagnant for near 20 years so it doesn't have the ability to engage in a trade war.

It also strategically neutered itself on energy and defence and tech industries over the last 15 years so it made itself dependent on America.

The humiliation by the Chinese of the EU delegation, Trump saying what they will do and they nodding in obedience, this has been decades in the making.

It will get worse, all the modern technology that will define this century, anyone involved in them has to leave for a less hostile environment.

Look at Stripe, a 100bn dollar company, Irish founded, it should be in Ireland but like every tech business if you want to make it big you'll be stopped in Europe by Europe

Deub · 29-07-2025 11:35AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123679667#Comment_123679667

It will get worse, all the modern technology that will define this century, anyone involved in them has to leave for a less hostile environment.
Look at Stripe, a 100bn dollar company, Irish founded, it should be in Ireland but like every tech business if you want to make it big you'll be stopped in Europe by Europe

What do you mean by hostile environment? Can you give us some examples of problems faced by tech companies?

You can take the example of Stripe if you want.

Tony EH · 29-07-2025 02:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123679141#Comment_123679141

Who's "they"?

sock.rocker* · 29-07-2025 05:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123680356#Comment_123680356

Irish people supporting tariffs because of reasons, people who are generally anti-EU, who don't grasp that it's a tax on themselves.

The idea of fighting back is lovely and all, but I don't think consumers want it. The big deal with tariffs in the US right now is not opportunity, it's inflation. It's such a ridiculously crude instrument and it's nonsensical that the US is just applying it willy nilly.

The usual benefits of tariffs, like protecting industry, or taking back production, don't apply here. Europe getting into a trade war with enormous tariffs won't benefit its companies or population at all.

America consumes so much that it has trade deficits with every country in the world. Applying tariffs is just a tax on Americans. The US cannot replace that demand for imports with internal production. It's just a tax.

sock.rocker* · 29-07-2025 05:34PM

Any country or bloc can apply tariffs at any time. If it was a way to prosperity, it would be known. You aren't losing because the other party applies bigger tariffs. It isn't worth getting your own output tariffed even more. If the US wants to tax everything from the rest of the world, they can go ahead. It doesn't matter once they do it to everyone.

sock.rocker* · 29-07-2025 05:36PM

That said, if they do tariff pharma like 200%, it would be awful for Ireland. But Ireland and the EU can't stop that happening. That's just a decision Trump would make by himself. No country in the world has the political influence to stop that.

BP_RS3813 · 29-07-2025 06:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123680896#Comment_123680896

We can stop that happening.

Its called being a bigger bully and fighting fire with fire. Imagine if the US suddenly couldn't buy important supplies like food and medicine because we decided to stop selling them. How about building materials too? See how the general populace supports trump then.

Sure there will be temporary job loss and economic damage but in the long run it'll produce stability.

Bully them into submission and make them learn that applying tariffs willy nilly like Trump simply will not be allowed. That'll put manners on him.

The whole world could unite and do this.

greenfield21 · 29-07-2025 06:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123680998#Comment_123680998

Ah yes, let's unite with China against the United States. Good lord, we're really going there.

BP_RS3813 · 29-07-2025 06:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123681037#Comment_123681037

The alternative is let a madman run wild. Stability matters more then whatever perceived ethical/moral notions you have with regards to the global economy.

And the US isn't exactly a boyscout nowadays is it? Not that it ever was.

sock.rocker* · 29-07-2025 06:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123680998#Comment_123680998

The US, like most countries, has laws that allows internal production of things like medicine if it is too expensive to import. It throws a wrench into the economic system, but the US could simply decide to manufacture something like Ozempic internally and distribute it for free. We don't have actual rights when it comes to this sort of thing. They can do whatever they want.

sock.rocker* · 29-07-2025 06:52PM

I understand why people don't want it to be like this, but this is the US we are dealing with now.

Their leader, and apparent controller of tariffs, has complete and utter disregard for his population. The EU and member states do.

It's like watching a whale go wild in a poker game and you can take your chance, but if you lose, you're fcked, but the other guy doesn't care if he loses.

Danzy · 29-07-2025 06:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123680998#Comment_123680998

The EU and countries within have been desperately mismanaged for years.

In 2015 the Eurozone GDP was about 13 trillion, America about 18, this year the Eurozone will likely be 16.5 and the yanks likely hit 29.

The speed from which America is pulling away is incredible, if one thing that this tariff débâcle leads to is Europe facing up to the immense economic challenges it has made for itself and how at risk it is of falling in to a situation of economic irrelevancy over decades to come.

astrofool · 29-07-2025 08:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123608877#Comment_123608877

I'll quote this again for prescience.

Pharma included from trump:

Donald Trump confirms pharma tariff will be 15pc for EU as White House reveals fact sheet on trade deal | Irish Independent

I still think we'll get more drama from donald as donald realises what he's agreed to. See the sick country of Europe stick out:

At a personal level, 0% tariffs on US imports as long as it meets EU standards would be great, cheaper goods, more competition, would help if the US could start building better things (apart from all the European brand luxury cars they export).

BP_RS3813 · 29-07-2025 08:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123681141#Comment_123681141

"It's like watching a whale go wild in a poker game and you can take your chance, but if you lose, you're fcked, but the other guy doesn't care if he loses."

Then lets have both players lose. Scorched earth tactics - both sides get burned.

In our case the all the other players and the people propping up the whale will realise going wild cannot be allowed and the whale will be consequently removed and left to die.