US/EU trade talks go down to the wire

michael-henry-mcivor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123692500#Comment_123692500

Most countries hold the Trump card against Trump-

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123691927#Comment_123691927

There are early signs of many US Pharma companies accelerating the expansion of production facilities in the US. We should be OK for the next few years but beyond that there is real threat.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/howardlutnick/status/1947634335873380532

I think it's incredulous that these guys are going to leave us alone with a max 15% tariff on Pharma. I'm sure Howard has totally signed up to that deal the EU say they agreed. The investigation underway in to pharma off-shoring from the US is on national security grounds and Ireland will be at the very top of that list. They'll justify what they are going to do for national security reasons.

We'll find out either way soon enough within the next couple of weeks.

Larbre34

As usual Kermit, most of your instincts are way off.

A) Those same US makers require a European base now more than ever, to serve a billion and half people in the EMEA markets from outside of a tariff hungry regime. They will be very strongly agitating the White House not to frustrate their cost bases even further with escalatory actions

B) As you will have seen from a hundred different sources this week, the White House economic policies are beginning to depress the US economy, in the way that so many independent analysts said it was inevitable that they would. Continuing cooling in job creation and falls in stocks, along with tariffs being fed through to consumer prices, and Trump and Congress may find themselves operating under different conditions.

C) The veracity of the deals that have been reached are important to the UK and EU and Japan and other markets, and they aren't simply going to accept the US coming back for another bite outside of a process that took an enormous amount of political capital and consumption of good faith to arrive at, regardless of whatever domestic process is being conducted in Washington.

From my experience of negotiations, I would imagine the Americans are completing the "national security" aspect study for appearances sake, but that the other parties to trade deals will have said "thats your problem, and we don't want to hear another word about it after we conclude our business"

Otherwise they'll be running very short, very quickly, of Ozempic, Rybelsus and Wegovy, and Trump can go and ask Kennedy what that tap being turned off would do to the Medicare and Medicaid budgets within months.

Podge_irl

We'll find out nothing in a few weeks and it takes a ridiculous level of credulity to believe anything coming out of the White House.

Also notable that Switzerland has been hit with a much, much larger tariff.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123686051#Comment_123686051

Potential good news for the drinks industry- Irish spirits to replace US spirits on Canadian shelves?

https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/canadian-state-wholesaler-wants-irish-whiskey-to-replace-us-spirits-in-25000-outlets-agriculture-minister-says/a414689550.html

The potential for a Canadian deal comes as Heydon and his trade officials at the Department of ­Agriculture have grown increasingly confident about the potential for a trade deal between the EU and India that could also provide a crucial new opportunity for the Irish whiskey sector.

Peregrinus

Not many actual deals, just [press statements about] frameworks.

Fixed that for you.

dubrov

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123694543#Comment_123694543

It's too early to tell with a lot of what you say.

And there hasn't been any fall in sticks. The main US indices are pretty close to all time highs

sock.rocker*

Trump says EU could face 35% tariffs if it fails to meet $600bn investment promises, threatens with pharma tariffs

US president Donald Trump also said that if the EU fails to meet its investment promises under the EU-US deal, the bloc will face tariffs of 35%.

He said:

“They bought down their tariffs. They paid $600bn and because of that I reduced their tariffs from thirty percent down to fifteen percent, and a couple of countries came, ‘How come, the EU is paying less than us’, and I said well, because they gave me $600bn.

And that’s a gift, that’s not like, you know, a loan … they gave us $600bn that we can invest in anything we want.”

He added:

“The details are, $600bn to invest in anything I want, anything. I can do anything I want with it.

And the purpose was, they’ve been, you know ripping us to so many years that it’s time that they pay up and they have to pay up.”

He then criticised the Swiss prime minister saying she “didn’t want to listen” to his arguments.

Trump then moved on to pharmaceuticals, saying “they make a fortune with pharmaceuticals, and they make in China and Ireland and everything else,” and that he will be announcing separate tariffs on them “within the next week or so.”

“This is a, you know, this is a separate class than the 15% tariffs on sort of everything. These are excluded classes, I like to call them, like steel, aluminium.”

He added:

“We’ll be putting an initially small tariff on pharmaceuticals, but in one year, one and a half years maximum, it’s going to go to 150%, and then it’s going to go to 250%, because we want pharmaceuticals made in our country.”

sock.rocker*

Absolutely insane. There is basically no point in Ireland supporting any of this. A harder implementation of tariffs on pharma now would be better than a slow drip where the companies have time to move to the US.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2025/0805/1526946-eu-us-tariffs/

Remember, the EU says they secured a max tariff of 15% on pharma after the US investigation concludes. No US official has yet said that.

sock.rocker*

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123698572#Comment_123698572

What do you mean by "remember"? It was like last week.

BP_RS3813

Why anyone still tolerates this clown is beyond me.

US could easily be beaten into submission if the world collectively starved them of resources - China, the EU etc all work together and say no exporting food, medicine etc. See how quickly they fold then.

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123698599#Comment_123698599

Not going to happen. We could not even get that sort of agreement within the EU whatever between blocks around the world.

I think Trump is just threatening the crazy high tariffs on Pharma to 'persuade' them to move manufacturing back to the states. I think it is working already, there are signs that many companies are accelerating construction of manufacturing sites in the states. Once construction starts that will be completed even if Trump completely backs down next year.

This could be the biggest threat to the Irish economy in decades and there is nothing we can do about it.

Qaanaaq

Well US pharma will still need access to the EU market so irleand is the most logical place to serve that.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123698595#Comment_123698595

I mean remember after the impact because my suspicion, as I've articulated before, is that in the next week or so the EU and Irish government officials/politicians may have a lot of explaining to do after touting a success that seems extremely tenuous when juxtaposed against the highly aggressive policies of the Trump administration when it comes to bringing high value manufacturing home especially pharma.

The US administration cannot do what they say and leave Ireland alone with 15% tariffs and thus the EU Commission. That is a circle that cannot be squared with their intent.

I hope I'm wrong because it will have a bad effect on Ireland but I don't think I will be.

On another note I see some government TDs saying it's grand to raise spending/cut taxes in the budget by nearly €10bn. Exact same delusions as in 2007. The danger didn't register then and it's not registering now.

Larbre34

In "one year or one-and-a-half-years maximum" Trump will be a lame duck. Congress will be gone from his grasp, mainly due to the effect on the US economy of what he's doing now, and he'll have far bigger fish to fry, like staying out of prison in 2029.

Or more likely, as an 80+ year old obese man, with a penchant for fast food and circulation problems, he'll be dead.

sock.rocker*

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123698651#Comment_123698651

It wasn't your suspicion. It was widely reported that it was vague and the pharma companies themselves didn't know what was happening. I posted concerns, like others.

The alternative for the EU was a blow up phone call that left Switzerland with 39%. These are simply extraordinary times and the only argument that Ireland would be better off without the EU would rely on a revision of decades of our history where we would still be poor and not have a pharma industry to worry about protecting.

It's just a shlt sandwich. Trump is not reliant on doing the right thing for his country whereas the EU are. It's just incredibly hard to negotiate from that position. And Ireland is simply in one of the worst positions possible.

Geuze

Can somebody explain this to me?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/07/fact-sheet-the-united-states-and-european-union-reach-massive-trade-deal/

MAKING GLOBAL HISTORY: Yesterday, President Donald J. Trump announced a trade deal with the European Union (EU), fundamentally rebalancing the economic relationship between the world’s two largest economies.

• The deal marks a generational modernization of the transatlantic alliance and will provide Americans with unprecedented levels of market access to the European Union.
• The deal bolsters America’s economy and manufacturing capabilities. The EU will purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy and make new investments of $600 billion in the United States, all by 2028.

(1) As the European Commission is not in the business of purchasing gas, oil, petrol or diesel, who will do this spending?

How can the Euro Commission tell Maxol Ireland where to buy their diesel from?

(2) the European Commission is in the charge of the EU budget, which has two large components: the CAP, and grants to poorer regions

How can the Commission invest in the USA?

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123694632#Comment_123694632

That poster is worse than Trump for his "next few weeks".

We have been waiting for the EU to sell us out in the next few weeks for 10 years now. He must be using the same calander as Putin.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123698666#Comment_123698666

The Energy bit is all to do with LPG and crude oil. Considering EU consumption of both is falling, the entire market will be soon less than that value, so both sides knew that provision was total bollocks from the outset.

Its got nothing to do with retailers like Maxol, who only buy refined product in Ireland and Europe anyway.

By EU investment, they don't mean money from the Commission, despite what Trump said today, because he doesn't understand anything important.

What they mean is Mercedes building an engine plant for 200 million dollars, or the Belgian Air Force committing 2 Billion for Lockheed Martin jet fighters etc, or Kerry Group spending 50 million on market development in new areas.

Its basically the sort of thing that already goes on, but the EU side have said, 'yeah, sure we'll try and do a bit more of that over the next few years', which is basically more nebulous bullshit.

If anyone needs reminding of what an imbecile Trump is, its this complete misunderstanding of the whole structure of the deal he came out with today.

Absolutely nobody is handing him 600 billion effing dollars.

sock.rocker*

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123698795#Comment_123698795

His comments make it clear he sees it as a bribe, and then he spouts off saying it's to him and he can invest it where he wants.

Crazy what the US has turned into.

Geuze

Ok, thanks.

But how can the European Commission instruct the European refiners to buy US crude oil? Surely they are free to buy any crude on the open market (except Russian crude oil)?

Or take whoever is responsible for buying wholesale gas in Ireland (actually, who is that?).

Assuming we had an LNG terminal, how can the buyer be made to buy US LNG?

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123698811#Comment_123698811

They can't.

Literally any world leader apart from Trump would know that.

Larbre34

Crude oils and shipped gas are imported by big global players like Shell, Sunoco and BP.

They are refined and stored by them all over the island, mostly in oceanside tanks, and then sold on to second level wholesalers and retailers and between them all they manage supply by constantly assessing demand.

The only government involvement in fossil fuel purchasing, is the small national reserve, a 30 days supply of all fuels held on behalf of the State. It is miniscule.

astrofool

All very predictable:

What this might mean is a "deal" gets agreed and then they pipe up about it again when they realise what they've agreed to, leading to a long drawn out process (but effectively remains the same as can kicking, bar a few days here and there).

Geuze

You'd think somebody in the US admin would know as much as the posters here?

selectamatic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123699827#Comment_123699827

Oh they know, its just they're operating under the assumption that their voter base doesn't know.

And they're working very hard to keep it that way.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123694632#Comment_123694632

Not as much an issue for switzerland, the main purchases of swiss products are the elite in the US. Prices could double and those people wouldn't care less. Irish products such as dairy and pharmaceuticals are aimed at lower classes of people.

Without the EU negotiating on our behalf that's likely the tariff that we would be facing

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123706139#Comment_123706139

Of course it's a big issue for use here in Switzerland! We don't just export luxury items to the US, we export basic stuff like the seat covering used by by Boeing in all it's aircraft, the basic rail tracks used robots in over 40% of all American automated manufacturing processes and of course just like Ireland we are a major Pharma exporter…