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US/EU trade talks go down to the wire

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Comments

  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 30,385 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I dont see how being the weaker party at the negotiating table is ever a good thing.

    I don't mean in the negotiating, I mean in general. It is a positive we don't, and generally can't, have a deranged lunatic acting on whims to set our foreign and trade policy. It makes us weaker in specific dealings with one of those lunatics, but that is a trade-off I'm happy enough to take.

    There is still a reasonable chance that this "trade deal" never even gets ratified and it just becomes a sop to stop a trade war materialising. For now at least.

    The reason to remove them for any new President is rather straightforward. They make things more expensive for US citizens. The way the tariffs are constructed today, they serve no useful purpose. As long as you tariff end products less than imports of raw materials you do nothing to onshore industry. The tariff landscape is such an incoherent mess that any new administration will have little choice but to completely overhaul it (and hopefully man up and codify when a President can make these deranged moves).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,415 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    It is simply impossible for the EU to beat the US in this type of negotiation, because the negotiators etc. are beholden to the actual EU population and needs to try and avoid calamity.

    Trump doesn't have such qualms, doesn't give a shlt about Americans, and has seemingly wrestled controls of tariffs away from the government because of Fentanyl, but is now going crazy with them.

    The entire world faces this dilemma of their most important export partner being ready to ruin everything. Damage control is the only responsible political response.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 405 ✭✭michael-henry-mcivor


    There is a EU border inside the UK- so the UK is hardly by itself-

    EU says jump-

    UK - Trump jumps-



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,039 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Im sure similar arguments have been made in the past as a way to do nothing in the face of a bully.

    I disagree with it. I think the EU should have fought fire with fire. No negotiations without reciprocal tarrifs and/or no tarrifs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,039 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    I think theres more at stake here. Believing that the US economy will reflect these tarrifs in this overtly obvious way or indeed that the US public would even accept that it was the tarrifs fault is a gamble.

    The EU are bending the knee. They should have stood as an equal and called his bluff.

    Theyre agreeing to be even more beholden to the US now re energy and arms.

    They are giving Donnie his propaganda win as well.

    Worse could follow The Don. No guarantees that the US voting public come to their senses in 4 years and the EU will be more dependent on the US and proved that they can be bullied. Lose lose in my opinion.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,415 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    There is absolutely no measure the EU could take that Trump would even blink at. He doesn't care and his base doesn't care. They don't even know how tariffs work.

    How do you fight that fight if you are the EU? Like really, if he just doubles any response from the EU, when does it stop? At 145% like China? It makes him look good to his base to smash the EU like that, and he seems to hate the EU more than even China.

    Reciprocal tariffs and a big neverending trade war that crucifies Europe, and especially Ireland, while not mattering one iota to Trump who is in power for three and a half more years, would be monumentally stupid. Better for Europeans to feel beaten than to have real world actual Armageddon.

    I am so glad the EU has people with cool heads who don't go all crazy and start trade wars when that is what Trump wants them to do.

    Is there some feel good fantasy where bullies always get their comeuppance or something? Are you seriously willing to sacrifice millions of European jobs, just to stand up to a disgusting piece of shlt who is completely unbothered by anything you do?

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,039 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    To the best of my knowledge the tarrif on China is 30%? And negotiation talks are ongoing.

    Trump rowed right back on all his Dr. EVIL 1 Billion percent nonsense when China stood up to him.

    History is littered with the softly softly approach to bullies/dictators and it rarely ends well.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,415 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    Ok, you think 15% is bad enough that the EU should start a trade war. I don't. I think it is low enough to keep industries going. I just hope it includes pharma like yahoo reported.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 667 ✭✭✭BP_RS3813


    "Better for Europeans to feel beaten than to have real world actual Armageddon."

    If we did have another crash/Armageddon least the world would have learned that allowing headcases like Trump to have any power should never occur again.

    Mistakes have to be made in order for lessons to be learned.

    "Is there some feel good fantasy where bullies always get their comeuppance or something? Are you seriously willing to sacrifice millions of European jobs, just to stand up to a disgusting piece of shlt who is completely unbothered by anything you do?"

    I would be yes, Trump has ripped up the rulebook, he is not playing by standard rules and cannot be beaten using them. We need to fight fire with fire and put him in his place, show we have the negotiating power and make the US think twice about ever pulling a stunt like this again. You need a monster to kill a monster.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,039 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Im just not seeing the benefits in allowing Trump get his way. I think the row back/pause and ongoing negotiations with China prove he was all bluster.

    So my feeling is the EU have negotiated poorly here. I dont have all the info though, none of us do. Only time will tell but I think the EU should have used this as a reason tostart becoming more self sufficient, not less.

    Theyre gambling that in 4 years time the US goes back to being a freind. But theres absolutely zero guarantee of that. And lets be honest even before Trump the US were very much a freind only when it truly benefits them.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,415 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    The EU as an entity can survive 15% tariffs. It won't really matter much at all. The USD is 11% weaker since Feb against the Euro, which is basically the same as an 11% tariff, and it hasn't mattered.

    Whether or not it could survive an actual trade war with 100%+ tariffs for multiple years, and member states reeling, and populations furious at the EU for walking into a fight with Trump.. I don't know. It's just such an enormous risk and I don't think a supranational organisation can ever actually be the monster you are talking about.

    Imagine 100% tariffs and Trump offering any country that leaves the EU no tariffs. The chaos if some countries started talking about doing it.

    That's not even taking Ukraine etc. into it.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,415 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    Do you think the EU could have gotten less than 15%?

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,039 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    No idea. The rate is less important. I think they should have put up a reciprocal response and gone head to gead woth him.

    I think they should be looking at internal energy sources and internal arming sources.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 43,804 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    So a trade war?
    And how would that benefit exporters or EU citizens?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,039 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    By empowering the EU in long run.

    People are basically advocating path of least resistance for a peer?

    That makes no sense. Trump may leave in 4 years and the replacement looks for another pound of flesh? Where does it stop?

    The only reason to fold is if youre the weaker party.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 43,804 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    By empowering the EU in long run.

    This is just popoulist nonsense.
    In what way would the EU have become empowered and how long would it take for the pain to start ending?

    People are basically advocating path of least resistance for a peer?

    I've no idea what you mean here

    That makes no sense. Trump may leave in 4 years and the replacement looks for another pound of flesh? Where does it stop?

    It doesn't - trade terms are always being renegotiated but starting an all-out trade war is not the approach to reach an amicable solution. However, when one side of the discussion are intent on chaos and uncertainty then you don't jump in and antagonise them.

    The only reason to fold is if youre the weaker party.

    Sigh, nobody folded! Sure a deal hasn't even been agreed 🙄



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 291 ✭✭Aurelian


    Patriotism aside... the EU probably has been taking advantage of the US a bit recently. So, making some sort of public concession may not be the worst thing.

    15% tariffs isn't great but it's 15% before local taxes, some of which will be swallowed by producers, so, it might not exactly drive Americans away from EU products.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 30,385 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    They are doing both those things but neither will appear overnight. And I remain fairly skeptical the supposed investment and energy purchase requirements will be remotely enforceable.

    China tried the reciprocal response approach and they ratcheted up to 165% tariffs at one point. They are now in a cooling off negotiation period but even during that face twice the rate the EU does. And that is a country led by a borderline dictatorship.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 667 ✭✭✭BP_RS3813




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,039 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    China are a prime example, theyre still in trade talks and after all the hullabaloo the current tarrif is only double what the EU have fully agreed to.

    No trade war. Two heavy weights still in discussions. The EU have said to the world we're the lighter opponent here.

    You seem keen to paint the EU negotiatiers as infallible. I thought they played a blinder during Brexit. Im much less sure in this instance.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,442 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I will do so when it's released but the headline points are out there.

    The EU has accepted the imposition of a 15% tariff on 70% of exports and given US exporters a 0% tariff.

    I accept they had little choice given the unpredictability of the Trump administration and the US is the stronger side - to that extent I'm not even complaining about it.

    It avoids an immediate trade war but the fact remains it is a damage limitation excerise and European reaction reflects that. The fact it's a worse outcome than the UK is a bitter pill as well.

    Look at steel. UK has 25% tariff while the EU has a 50% tariff imposed.

    Starmer is actually meeting Trump today so things might get even get worse from that perspective.

    It may be unavoidable but it's a bad day for trade.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,387 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    It was never gonna be a good day for trade.

    Trump made that call months ago. Certainty was what was required at this point. The "deal" is bad for all concerned but at least there's some certainty there now.

    Well, as much certainty as you can have when dealing with a modern US.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,415 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    I think the context you are not taking into account properly is that America is at war with everyone. 15% for importing from the EU is better than loads of countries. And American companies are facing big tariffs when they import steel and components etc. from China, making their own products more expensive unless they are truly American-made. And even that gets more expensive as demand for the locally produced steel etc. goes up.

    The EU is not losing out in the classical trade war sense when it is two countries or entities. It is harder here for Americans to just switch to another country, or an American company. Imports from Europe honestly won't be that affected. There simply isn't the capacity in America to increase production there, the rates just low enough to not really be worth it, and the political climate means they could be dropped next year.

    As it stands, American consumers are simply paying extra taxes. Europeans I'm sure will be glad they aren't, even if they feel a bit chastened by this idea that they signed a bad deal.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,213 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Yeah, its a bad deal. But any deal worse than we had previously was a bad deal, its just a question of degrees.

    What it does give, is certainty and time. Time for Europe to get busy building a bonfire of stifling regulation and start investing heavily in itself and with a newly diversified trade community around the world.

    America cannot be relied on, so it should not be.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,269 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    Unfortunately this is the reality for the EU. They were faced with a Hobson's choice because of Trump's lunacy. A creature who'd happily sit on his fat arse in Mar a Lago and watch as his entire nation fall apart around him. He's been an absolute blight on world politics and the sooner he's gone the better for everyone.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,710 ✭✭✭dubrov


    The EU should've teamed up with other big traders with the US like Japan and the UK. Once they did a deal, it strengthened the hand of the US



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,735 ✭✭✭paddyisreal


    trump played a stormer here let's be honest and people should take the blinkers off. he had the EU over the barrel on security and hence he got this deal it really is that simple. I would imagine behind closed doors it was taken the deal or your on your own. the EU by outsourcing their security to the US for the last 50 years plus created this mess. o. the other hand it could be the kick in the arse the EU needs



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,529 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Does anybody know much about the EU commitments to buy more US oil and gas?

    How will that work?

    Ireland doesn't have an LNG terminal.

    Will we have to import US petrol and diesel?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,269 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    How is it a "stormer"?

    He had 30% in one hand and 15% in the other. What were the EU supposed to do in that situation.

    I wonder when the reality of higher costs for goods hit the US consumer will they stupidly think that it's a "stormer" as well.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 853 ✭✭✭greyday


    Is it possible EU consumers benefit from this with tariffs on US goods abolished in the EU?

    The converse happening to US consumers?



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