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Irish economy exceeding capacity to provide infrastructure , time to slow down?

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Comments

  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 43,802 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Mod: as this is a discussion on "Irish economy exceeding capacity to provide infrastructure , time to slow down?", it is not a thread for a general whinge about immigration and I'll be handing out thread bans for anyone who attempts to make it so.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 30,384 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Well some people are, but I can allow not McWilliams.

    I'm fine with tightening certain avenues - the student route was clearly being heavily abused by dodgy "English language" schools for example. I don't think it is quite as bad now, but it needs keeping an eye on. That being said, these people probably weren't putting a huge strain on the housing market given their living conditions. There is obviously basically nothing we can do about EU immigration. There has been a large increase in ROTW immigration though its not clear how many of them are Ukrainians.

    It is not, ultimately, a tap that the govt can just turn on and off though. We are at full employment, and this is partly because of the immigration. The likes of large multinationals won't expand here if they can't bring in some employees - an expansion that requires e.g. 50% immigrant workforce is still 50% of high paying jobs for Irish people. It's a difficult nut to crack.

    Our housing issue was coming one way or another though. We haven't been building enough to account for the natural increase of population never mind anything else. We have just shown ourselves as being utterly incapable of addressing it because it is slightly difficult. The UK, Australia, much of the US all have the same problem. The exceptions prove the rule - in the likes of Austin, TX for example they have massively overhauled their planning laws, there is a massive building boom and rents and house prices are dropping like a stone. And contrary to the oft cited conspiracy theory, developers are still happy to build and rent or sell with falling prices.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,538 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yup, this is now a much bigger, and more so a global problem, increasing state involvement in the process of housing is really the only solution, but equally problematic, this also wont be happening anytime soon here either, so this problem carries into the 30's, and disturbingly, possible also into the 40's!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,296 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    My opinion is that we're stuck in a 1980s mindset. This was the period when people like Micheal Martin formed their views, and I don't think they've changed much since.

    Then, the key objective was wage moderation and employment growth. Better to have employment growth than a small number of people on high wages. You still see concern about wage growth in places like the Central Bank, where a report a few years ago saw immigration as a way of moderating wages.

    The problem with this is that it is not running the economy for the good of the people, but rather for a certain stratum that benefits from relatively low wages for the majority. In the 1980s, wage moderation made sense as a temporary measure until full employment is reached, but it has now become embedded in the economic thinking of policymakers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,538 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yup, the fundamental thinking is deeply flawed, and is simply not working for the economy and society we have now, our policy makers absolutely think we still have a relatively poorer economy, when in fact, we have a significantly different, far more wealthier one, this thinking is now leading to a rapidly growing wealth divide, and subsequent rising anger and divisions, its time to pivot, or we re all screwed!



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 30,384 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Ireland has some of the highest wages in Europe and those countries with higher wages tend to have higher immigration. I don't think it has anything to do with trying to achieve wage moderation.

    I agree the mindset is wrong, but the issue there is that we have become absolutely useless at building infrastructure. People can and should argue why, my own particular viewpoint is unlikely to change and that is it is because we have become incapable of dealing with the most minor of complaints and telling people tough **** - you live in a society and have to deal with it. People have somehow taken the concept of democracy to mean they should be coddled about everything. It would be impossible, in the current situation, for a government to have the mass social housing building of the 70s even if they wanted to. We would never be able to build Ardnacrusha. And, I would add, a huge part of the problem is in fact the Irish homeowners who relentlessly oppose all these things.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,538 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yup, and those same homeowners are in fact endangering their own kids and grand kids with this thinking!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,457 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Billions a year being wasted in construction inflation, because they didn't and won't build infrastructure. It's a total disgrace....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,538 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …and thats primarily due to libertarian based political and economic ideologies, i.e. significantly reduce state involvement in providing critical societal needs, including long term infrastructure needs, while encouraging, facilitating and prioritising more market based approaches, so, ta-da!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,457 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Before we'd have ff or fg in government, seeing as those days are over. Their both going to be in bed together, it should actually make it far easier to make the " hard decisions ".… like building the metro etc, they'll both sanction it and highly likely both will be in government IF and its a big if, it ever gets built...



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,538 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    i wouldnt be so confident of that, both have a history of ignoring long term, potentially risky decisions, be prepared for them both to become professional can kickers, in relation to such!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 98 ✭✭Perks


    My thoughts exactly. Our economy needs another round of EU funding. We do not do infastructure, we do not do planning.

    OP you said the Amazon project went selsewhere? where did it go, I heard just not for Dublin area



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,538 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    we also need to become more self sufficient in regards funding our own needs, this could be partly done via the creation of national development banks etc, it wont happen though



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,441 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Nobody will be giving Ireland any funding given we are one of the only countries in the world running budget surpluses. We don't need funding. The money is there. We need decisions made faster and we need to fix our broken planning system.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,296 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    It is not, however, the level of wages in absolute Euro terms, though; it is what you can buy with those wages, how much you pay in taxes, and what you get in return for those taxes. On this basis, we're mid-ranking among EU countries.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,538 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yup, we re pretty much bog standard in all these terms, no we dont pay excessively high taxes, taxes also need to rise in order for us to try resolve all of our issues, they wont though, as we ve convinced ourselves that thats a bad thing, so again, on we go!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 969 ✭✭✭techman1


    and thats primarily due to libertarian based political and economic ideologies, i.e. significantly reduce state involvement in providing critical societal needs, including long term infrastructure needs, while encouraging, facilitating and prioritising more market based approaches, so, ta-da!

    Completely wrong it is not libertarian economy that is the problem but too much state interference and incompetence. Remember the infrastructure bottle necks are because the state companies can not deliver infrastructure, lack of water infrastructure is because of local councils and Irish water, lack of energy and electricity is due to eirgrid. These are all state and semi state companies that are at fault.

    IIn Portlaoise the private sector construction companies despite capacity constraints still delivered those 80 houses but the state companies still haven't delivered.

    I have heard stories about the new esb headquarters in Fitzwilliam square rebuilt at huge cost with top notch canteens, top food etc being empty on Mondays and Fridays because they all working from home. When you start drilling down into these state companies you can see what is really happening



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,538 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    again, more libertarian horsesh1t! the main tolls used by such ideologies, always blame state 'interference', always! markets are always efficient therefore perfect, no they are not! markets are simply inefficient, and filled with all sorts of wealth extractive entities, i.e. rent seeking. yes markets are powerful, and can be far better than state entities in providing some of our needs, but not all! another tool, de-fund the states ability to be able to adequately provide whats required, in turn, encourage market based approaches, eg. housing, again, results in severally dysfunctional outcomes, including hyper inflated prices, i.e. more rent seeking! rinse repeat

    but dont worry, again, nothing is gonna change here, as we re gonna keep electing the same governments over and over, which have these beliefs embedded in their own ideologies, rinse repeat!

    free market libertarians are simply zealots, they will never accept accountability, never!



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 30,384 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The State, today, even if it wanted to would be incapable of providing the level of housing needed because they would never be able to get planning for it all - planning is ultimately state interference (and some degree of it is obviously needed). SF or any other prospective government would face the exact same problem as they have pushed to have even more veto power to any development. The same is clearly true of required infrastructure, with, e.g. water treatment plants being held up for years on the basis of one seemingly spurious complaint.

    Both free markets and state built housing have resulted in falling costs to the end-user. At the end of the day the same people are doing the building and the same effect happens on the SnD. Free markets have resulted in unfathomably cheap consumer goods across the spectrum - all while profits continue to be taken along the supply chain. They have also produced cheaper rents and cheaper homes when given freedom to build.

    The problems we have in infrastructure - from energy, to utilities, to transport are in fact all the result of state incapacity and state interference. A libertarian response would be to suggest all regulations are removed, but that is not really a serious argument being put forth by anyone. Just that clearly the market is both heavily over-regulated and also far too prone to political interference.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 240 ✭✭nearby_cheetah


    How is the State's performance in delivery of Health, Water, Electricity, Transport, Planning, etc?

    I want you to come on here and justify your crap and show us how the state is adequately delivering on the topics above because from where everyone else is standing, that’s just not the case.

    Rather than your usual verbal diarrhea, how about you try persuading us in concrete terms how the State is remotely competent, because outside your echo chamber it is failing to deliver; before calling for more state intervention in Housing.

    Post edited by nearby_cheetah on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,441 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I mean maybe you need to remind everyone what this country was like in the 70's and 80's when state companies had the run of every utility with monopolies. What was the standard of all these services when they weren't on strike? What were the prices like with no competition? How about the annual bailouts with the state shovelling in money just to keep shoddy only resort services going. Remember when the worker's interests in these companies like the ESB took precedent over consumers?

    Dark days.

    You really want to go back to that?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,538 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    and the disturbing thing is, most people actually think this current form of capatalism is the only one that actually exists, and has ever! there are actually infinite forms of captalism available to us, but at some stage we must be adults and accept theres something fundamentally wrong with this current, most predominate form, that its actually only truly capable for many of our short term needs, but truly awful, even dangerous, for our long term needs.

    no i dont advocate to return to the outright depressing ireland of the past, but again, at some point, we need to become adults and accept, we re in deep sh1t in regards many, if not most of our critical long term needs, and this form of capitalism simply isnt capable of doing so!

    we clearly need a balance of long term state investments and market based capitalism, in order to maintain most of our short term needs, although an extremely difficult task in itself, again, at some stage, adult thinking needs to eventually happen, or its clearly obvious, the whole thing will completely fall apart if left be



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 30,384 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The "market" genuinely is not that bad at long term investments, in many ways it is better than governments. What they hate is an unreliable and changing regulatory landscape that can cut out those investments from under them.

    In recent decades it is the state who have become much worse at long-term thinking (And this, for the record, is massively the fault of voters). That is why the state relies on the private sector to provide so many things on current budgets instead of investing on capital budgets themselves.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,538 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    so where is your evidence for this, 'not bad'? for example, how does our environmental future look like at the moment? how does our housing future look like? are more and more gaining access to critical health care or is it in decline?

    exactly! this is exactly what modern political and economic ideologies are about, undermining the states ability to be effective, and empowering more market based entities in providing critical social needs, hows that actually going right now?



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 30,384 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The state isn't effective because voters don't give it the opportunity to be. All my complaints here ultimately boil back down to that - planning is a mess because of kowtowing to local demands, capital spending is so difficult because of public opposition, infrastructure building is impossible because no one will accept the attendant necessary destruction. This is not me arguing for anything other than democracy for the record, but it is a huge issue with it.

    I don't have studies to hand, but to give an anecdotal example. There are cases today where in the HSE they "rent" MRI machines from e.g. GE. They do this to keep the capital expenditure off the budget as they can't afford it. GE are happy to buy/provide the machines cause they know they will get payback over the next 10 years. The HSE can't afford that long term thinking. That is not capitalism undermining the HSE, that is politics undermining it.

    Environmental issues are a great example of where state intervention is necessary and good. Though that should be caveated against it being proportional as well (cf. bat tunnels).

    Our housing is 100000% constrained by government. That is simply fact. They control what can get built and where and the demand for building far exceeds what they allow.



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