Tesla Talk 2

Imagine if you could buy an old but fully functional needing very little work V8 petrol S-class or 7-series for GBP5,500 with free petrol for life 😂

Remember the miles long queues years ago when some petrol station sold fuel for €0.99 per liter? I don't have free supercharging, just charging at home on night rate and it costs me the equivalent of €0.099 per liter, yes 90% cheaper than that cheap petrol

TSLA has been creeping up a lot over the last few weeks. Pre market no move. But I hope the news is such that it would entice me to go back in soon enough. Haven't been long in a long time now.

it’s just retail buyers getting in at any dip towards $300, as a perceived value point.

It’s not possible to actually value Tesla as a business, as we know. Certainly the recent price movement has nothing to do with the upcoming earnings, as the consensus for earnings estimates have dropped so much for Q2 already.

Get your Tesla bingo card really for tonight - low cost model, Optimus promise, Roadster promise, Semi promise, Ai/FSD promise, and especially Robotaxi expansion promise.

Out of interest, how do you figure that out? I calculated once that the ratio is roughly 3kWh:1L because on average a car will do 100km in 15kWh or 5L

My night rate is 12.5c so the equivalent of 37.5c/L and I'm bloody happy with that rate as I do quite high mileage! Think the best rate on the market at the moment is 6.25c/kWh? Which by my calcs is 18.75c/L

I've had several V8 petrol cars and they typically did about 13-14l / 100km. Worse in winter. And worse on a commute into Dublin city centre 😂 And they were all good quality relatively modern fuel injected German engines. I suspect it would be a lot worse in a carb yank tank 😂

I have never owned a diesel car and I never will

more the bingo card -

I forgot that there will definitely be some sort of Optimus video showing it do something amazing but not really useful. Available to buy a home unit of Optimus in 2026 for $25,000. It won’t ever happen.

There will be a 69,420 joke in there somewhere - musk hasn’t realised yet that the world tired of that joke so long ago. The Diner thing opened at 4:20pm 😬🙄

There will be a complete and total lie about the bump in sales they are seeing, but won’t say where.

Musk will spend almost all the call talking about how much they’ve already achieved with the Austin trial, ignore all the issues, and that they’ll rollout countrywide by year end - it’s the single easiest way to pop the stock in the short term - Tsla bagholders are just baying for it. The rollout won’t happen because they don’t meet the bar for the regulators, and they’ll blame the regulators for not seeing that their camera-only solution is better.

Dan Ives will adjust his SP target up $50 based only on the Diner opening. 😛

There you go - saves you reading the call transcript in the morning 😀

I have a 251 Corolla hybrid van that has averaged 4.9l over the first 3000 kms of its life. Mixed driving, various drivers. It’s far cheaper to run than the 1.5hdi proace/berlingo it replaced.

Unkel isn't using any of that 34c electricity though, between batteries and solar he could run the 3 arena 😂

Which to be fair is a great use of batteries and solar, but not everybody has those

2 EVs in this household, only recently got panels and 5kWh of battery so looking forward to the payback day.

Relatively high mileage, charge the tesla twice a week, 3 times per week in the summer to account for holiday home weekend trips, and charge the leaf once per week, probably getting a heat pump as the next big purchase on the house so a 3 or 4 hour window wouldn't be a smart move for us.

Like yourself, quite envious of the 5c rate that works for some

Musk appeared to spend most of the call trying to reframe literally every aspect of their business, indeed it all sounds even more ‘not believable’ than usual.

e.g They framed the sales drop as being related to “It is difficult to measure the impacts of shifting global trade and fiscal policies”

but EV sales worldwide are streaking ahead, roughly +70%, while Tesla in H1 was -13%.

Looking at commentary this morning, most seem to be saying that Tesla are running out of places to go before they can just blame their CEO.

Couple of weird bits:

Musk is saying he needs more shares and control (the contested pay packet), as they mightn’t be able to fend off a hostile takeover.

Also, the financials show they could easily be Free Cash Flow negative by Q4, which I think will be a tipping point, as the car business is funding everything for many years.

and finally, car margin was 15.0%.