Tesla Talk 2

I don't think Elm has ever said vision doesn't work but rather it doesn't work 100% of the time which is what's required.

Yet if you goto reddit there are lots of us folk that gush about fsd

I feel like this debate goes in circles constantly.

Some people do not understand how much Musk has kneecapped Tesla's FSD ambitions by going the camera-only route. The limited onboard hardware resources for real-time inference, and the lack supporting hardware(radar, lidar) to reduce computationally expensive inference of objects shape, distance and velocity. And that's before we even talk about limitations of current model limits due to their inability to generalise.

There's a concept named Moravec's paradox which observes that it's relatively easy to make computers perform at an adult level, and even excel to a super intelligence level on rule based tests or playing complex games like chess or go(see AlphaGo), and impossible for humans to match that speed and accuracy. So essentially computers excel at rule based logical operations.

On the other hand, it's extremely difficult to give computers the skills of a 1 or 2 year old when it comes to perception and mobility, such as picking up an object because humans had millions of years of evolution to continuously improve sensorimotor skills. These abilities are so intrinsic for humans that they are largely unconscious. We don't need to think about the complex physics of balance and coordination to walk across a room, we just do it. When we pick up an object, our brain instantly processes a huge amount of sensory data. It takes in visual information such as an object's shape, size, location, tactile feedback from your fingers such as texture, pressure, temperature, and proprioceptive data (which is knowing where your hand is in space). A computer needs to be programmed with complex algorithms and equipped with numerous sensors to even begin to replicate what we percieve as a simple act. 

To do all of this at a real, fully automous level, a model would need to generalise(AGI) and have multisensor inputs, and do all this with limited onboard resources.

Yep if you lived in the USA likely within the next few years. In Ireland later. We are under the control of the UNECE and they are not only extremely slow to adapt to developments, they seem to keep throwing up barriers. No idea how much later it will happen here after it happens in the USA. Even China allows FSD beta now. Europe is falling behind in all sorts of areas, we will be the laughing stock soon enough, if we aren't already.

I think the point is that you’d have made that same bet any year of the past decade.

Having a vehicle capable of driverless travel, and having government policy that allows its >safe< usage, in >all< conditions, are two very different things.

Tesla can talk until they are blue in the face able how they’ll get around weather and low sun. The Austin trial forbids them from having these vehicles on public streets in anything other than optimal weather conditions for this very reason.

I think ultimately it’s the safety requirements that will be their downfall.

This is likely why the EU is taking its time making sure FSD will actually work and not kill somebody. It's also notable that Tesla and Waymo only operate within fixed geofences so they probably need to load a heap of data into their systems

I think the only way for FSD to become a reality is if every manufacturer works on the same software at the same time

This is the typical over expectation of technology advances in the short term, and under expectation of technology advances in the medium and long term.

If Europe takes a bit longer, well so be it.. We won't be the laughing stock of anyone but fan boys.

The commander doesn't have that function to my knowledge. What you are probably thinking about is the "Autopilot Penalty Prevention" function

This disengages autopilot before your speed exceeds 140km/h and re-engages it shortly after dropping back below. The reason for this function is that autopilot penalises you when you go over that speed and you can't re-engage autopilot until that drive finishes, it also counts towards your 5 penalties in a week

The best way of disabling autosteer nagging is to get a privacy camera to cover the camera facing you. The nagging controls then revert to the weight felt on the steering wheel which is much easier to obey properly