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Boards weather forecast contest for June 2025

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,866 ✭✭✭appledrop


    10/ 27 now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,089 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks …

    IMT _ 14.9 (1.1 above normal) _ fourth week average 15.0 (1.1 above normal) _ likely finish 15.0 or 15.1

    MAX _ 29.6 _ looks to be set _ minimum progression scoring will be needed

    MIN _ 3.5 _ probably set

    PRC _ 129% of normal _ fourth week average 105% _ will finish 120% + whatever falls on 30th

    SUN _ 91.5% of normal _ fourth week average 43.5% _ will finish near 90%

    dry days _ 10/28 _ could finish 11/30 (30th likely wet, today may be dry)

    … scoring for bonus will be 10 points for correct (either 10 or 11) and one less per day-error.

    … in fact, your score is already determined (assuming it rains some part of 30th) because if total is 10/30, then I will share 10 points with 11/30 and go from there, if 11/30 is the result, 10/30 drops to 9 points. to preserve the proportions scoring 10 and also because it has been a lame "wet" trend with a lot of marginal wet days, feel like I was quite lucky with my 10/30 punt really given that quite a few wet days so called were dry most of the time.

    I will work up some preliminary scoring for the first when IMT is actually established … I think it will edge up both days but the 14.9 is currently 14.86 so there's a fair bit of ground to cover to get to 15.06 to give 15.1. Daily means will need to average 18 C to get there. So the result could be 15.0 just as easily.

    I would expect to see confirming data on the 2nd so the confirmed version of monthly scoring, and the annual update, will happen later that day.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,089 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Now at 11/29 dry days with only a trace of rain at Dub(A) on Sunday.

    30th today is not guaranteed to see rain before midnight either, as system appears likely to weaken approaching Dublin. So there's some chance of reaching 12/30, will see how it goes.

    IMT probably well into rounded 15.0 after Sunday's near 18 C average for five locations.

    July thread is open for your forecasts …



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,089 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT finished 15.0, PRC appears to be 124%, SUN 90% and as 30th got a bit of rain in late evening, the final bonus count is 11/30.

    I will score on this basis later and adjust it if needed tomorrow.

    Cornerstonelad looking to have highest score I think.



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