Boards weather forecast contest for June 2025

appledrop

10/ 27 now.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks …

IMT _ 14.9 (1.1 above normal) _ fourth week average 15.0 (1.1 above normal) _ likely finish 15.0 or 15.1

MAX _ 29.6 _ looks to be set _ minimum progression scoring will be needed

MIN _ 3.5 _ probably set

PRC _ 129% of normal _ fourth week average 105% _ will finish 120% + whatever falls on 30th

SUN _ 91.5% of normal _ fourth week average 43.5% _ will finish near 90%

dry days _ 10/28 _ could finish 11/30 (30th likely wet, today may be dry)

… scoring for bonus will be 10 points for correct (either 10 or 11) and one less per day-error.

… in fact, your score is already determined (assuming it rains some part of 30th) because if total is 10/30, then I will share 10 points with 11/30 and go from there, if 11/30 is the result, 10/30 drops to 9 points. to preserve the proportions scoring 10 and also because it has been a lame "wet" trend with a lot of marginal wet days, feel like I was quite lucky with my 10/30 punt really given that quite a few wet days so called were dry most of the time.

I will work up some preliminary scoring for the first when IMT is actually established … I think it will edge up both days but the 14.9 is currently 14.86 so there's a fair bit of ground to cover to get to 15.06 to give 15.1. Daily means will need to average 18 C to get there. So the result could be 15.0 just as easily.

I would expect to see confirming data on the 2nd so the confirmed version of monthly scoring, and the annual update, will happen later that day.

M.T. Cranium

Now at 11/29 dry days with only a trace of rain at Dub(A) on Sunday.

30th today is not guaranteed to see rain before midnight either, as system appears likely to weaken approaching Dublin. So there's some chance of reaching 12/30, will see how it goes.

IMT probably well into rounded 15.0 after Sunday's near 18 C average for five locations.

July thread is open for your forecasts …

M.T. Cranium

IMT finished 15.0, PRC appears to be 124%, SUN 90% and as 30th got a bit of rain in late evening, the final bonus count is 11/30.

I will score on this basis later and adjust it if needed tomorrow.

Cornerstonelad looking to have highest score I think.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed Scoring for June 2025

FORECASTER ____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS ___ TOTALS

… … confirmed values … … .15.0_29.6 _3.5 _126 _090…..11

Cornerstonelad __________ 25 _ 17^_ 15 _ 06 _ 08 __ 09 _____ 80

Artane2002 _____________ 25 _ 11^_ 19 _ 08 _ 09 __ 03 _____ 75

Tae laidir _______________ 19 _ 04^_ 18 _ 15 _ 09 __ 10 _____ 75

Kindred Spirit ____________21 _ 13^_ 10 _ 13 _ 08 __ 06 _____ 71

Dacogawa ______________ 17 _ 18^_ 00 _ 15 _ 08 __ 07 _____ 65

Gonzo _____(-2) _________16 _ 04^_ 14 _ 14 _ 10 __ 05 _63-2=61

bsal ___________________ 20 _ 06^_ 20 _ 06 _ 05 __ 04 _____ 61

Sunflower3 _____________ 19 _ 07^_ 10 _ 09 _ 10 __ 05 _____ 60

MrSkinner ______________ 15 _ 13^_ 05 _ 11 _ 09 __ 07 _____ 60

200motels ______________ 17 _ 04^_ 08 _ 09 _ 10 __ 08 _____ 56

__ Con Sensus __________ 16 _ 11^_ 05 _ 10 _ 08 __ 06 _____ 56

waterways ______________15 _ 19^_ 08 _ 04 _ 06 __ 03 _____ 55

dasa29 _________________20 _ 13^_ 05 _ 06 _ 03 __ 07 _____ 54

WolfeEire _______________15 _ 17^_ 03 _ 07 _ 06 __ 06 _____ 54

johnmac ________________16 _ 17^_ 01^_08 _ 06 __ 04 _____ 52

M.T. Cranium ____________ 14 _ 05^_ 00 _ 15 _ 09 __ 09 _____ 52

Adam240610 ____________16 _ 03^_ 07 _ 10 _ 09 __ 06 _____ 51

Esposito ___ (-1) _________14 _ 15^_ 01^_08 _ 05 __ 07 _50-1=49

Appledrop _______________12 _ 10^_ 01^_ 08 _ 10 __ 08 _____ 49

Joe Public _______________23 _ 16^_ 00 _ 00 _ 01 __ 04 _____ 44

MrStonewall _____________14 _ 15^_ 00 _ 02 _ 07 __ 05 _____ 43

__ NormaL ______________ 11 _ 10^_ 01^_ 06 _ 08 __ 06 _____ 42

DOCARCH ______________ 16 _ 08^_ 00 _ 05 _ 06 __ 06 _____ 41

Pauldry ________________ 16 _ 02^_ 07 _ 00 _ 09 __ 07 _____ 41

JPmarn _________________13 _ 10^_ 01^_ 00 _ 08 __ 09 _____ 41

^ MAX scores were by minimum progression

^ MIN scores were barely off target and required a few 01 scores in better half of zero range

Congrats to Cornerstonelad, Artane2002, Tae laidir and Kindred Spirit. These scores are confirmed now after consulting Monthly Summary today.

Annual scoring and category scoring follow in the next post.

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(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ dry days

Joe Public _______________15.2 _ 31.9 _ 0.4 _ 070 _ 135 __ 17

Cornerstonelad __________ 15.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 12

Artane2002 _____________ 15.0 _ 26.8 _ 3.6 _ 105 _ 095 __ 18

Kindred Spirit ___________ 14.6 _ 27.0 _ 2.5 _ 120 _ 100 __ 15

dasa29 _________________14.5 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 125 __ 14

bsal ___________________14.5 _ 26.0 _ 3.5 _ 098 _ 115 __ 17

Sunflower3 _____________ 14.4 _ 26.1 _ 2.5 _ 145 _ 092 __ 16

Tae laidir _______________ 14.4 _ 25.4 _ 3.3 _ 126 _ 093 __ 11

Dacogawa ______________ 14.2 _ 27.7 _ 0.7 _ 127 _ 099 __ 14

200motels ______________ 14.2 _ 25.4 _ 2.3 _ 145 _ 092 __ 13

johnmac ________________14.1 _ 27.5 _ 1.2 _ 104 _ 110 __ 17

DOCARCH ______________ 14.1 _ 26.2 _ 0.5 _ 095 _ 108 __ 15

__ Con Sensus __________ 14.1 _ 26.8 _ 2.0 _ 111 _ 100 __ 15

Gonzo _____(-2) _________14.1 _ 25.4 _ 2.9 _ 128 _ 092 __ 16

Adam240610 ____________14.1 _ 25.0 _ 2.2 _ 111 _ 097 __ 15

Pauldry ________________ 14.1 _ 24.8 _ 2.2 _ 180 _ 097 __ 14

waterways ______________14.0 _ 28.0 _ 2.3 _ 093 _ 112 __ 18

WolfeEire _______________14.0 _ 27.5 _ 1.8 _ 102 _ 108 __ 15

MrSkinner ______________ 14.0 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 096 __ 14

Esposito ___ (-1) _________13.9 _ 27.1 _ 1.4 _ 105 _ 115 __ 14

MrStonewall _____________13.9 _ 27.1 _ 0.9 _ 088 _ 106 __ 16

M.T. Cranium ____________ 13.9 _ 25.5 _ 0.9 _ 125 _ 095 __ 10

JPmarn _________________13.8 _ 26.5 _ 1.0 _ 175 _ 100 __ 12

Appledrop _______________13.7 _ 26.5 _ 1.2 _ 147 _ 090 __ 13

__ NormaL ______________13.6 _ 26.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 15

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update _ January to June 2025

Rank (prev)_FORECASTER _ Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun __ TOTAL

_01 _01 _ Dacogawa ______ 88_ 60_ 79_ 70_ 62_ 65 ____ 424

_02 _t04 _ Artane2002 _____65_ 50_ 66_ 67_ 68 _75 ____ 391

2.0_ 2.7___ Con Sensus ___ 87_ 53_ 67_ 64_ 64_ 56 ____ 391

_03 _02 _ DOCARCH ______77_ 61_ 78_ 48_ 75_ 41 ____ 380

t04 _t04 _ Gonzo_________ 78_ 38_ 68_ 70_ 62 _61 ____ 377

t04 _12 _ Cornerstonelad __ 48_ 50_ 64_ 77_ 58 _80 ____ 377

_06 _11 _Kindred Spirit ____83_ 55_ 56_ 63_ 47_ 71 ____ 375

_07 _03 _ Jpmarn ________ 68_ 52_ 77_ 65_ 71_ 41 ____ 374

_08 _09 _ MrSkinner ______ 81_ 66_ 58_ 56_ 51 _60 ____ 372

_09 _07t _ WolfeEire ______ 72_ 53_ 69_ 53_ 67_ 54 ____ 368

_10 _07t_ Appledrop ______ 71_ 61_ 63_ 62_ 57 _49 ____ 363

_11 _10 _ waterways ______ 62_ 50_ 59_ 65_ 70 _55 ____ 361

_12 _06 _ Mr Stonewall ____ 80_ 47_ 64_ 66_ 58 _43 ____ 358

_13 _13 _ john mac _______57_ 62_ 56_ 70_ 48_ 52 ____ 345

_14 _18 _ Tae laidir _______ 62_ 49_ 44_ 55_ 57_ 75 ____ 342

_15 _14 _ Sunflower3 _____ 73_ 45_ 45_ 61_ 56_ 60 ____ 340

_16 _15 _ Adam240610 ___ 34_ 61_ 65_ 66_ 53_ 51 ____ 330

_17 _16 _ M.T. Cranium ___ 48_ 46_ 70_ 57_ 50_ 52 ____ 323

17.0_13.9_ NormaL _______72_ 48_ 64_ 57_ 40_ 42 ____ 323

_18 _19 _ Dasa29 ________69_ 54_ 43_ 49_ 47_ 54 ____ 316

_19 _17 _ Pauldry ________58_ 63_ 61_ 55_ 32_ 41 ____ 310

_20 _20 _ Joe Public ______31_ 49_ 42_ 75_ 63_ 44 ____ 304

_21 _22 _ Bsal (5/6)______ 65_ 58_ 48_ 58 _ — _ 61 ____ 290

_22 _23 _ Esposito (5/6) __ 46_ 64_ —_ 63_ 52 _ 49 ____ 274

_23 _21 _ sryanbruen (4/6)_80_ 38_ 72_ 62_ —_ — _____ 252

_24 _24 _ 200motels (4/6) _53 _— _ 62 _— _ 30 _ 56 ____ 201

_25 _25 _ Icicle2025 (1/6) _ 57 _ — _—_ —_ — _ — ______ 57

_26 _26 _ JCXBXC (1/6) ___ 32 _ — _—_ —_ — _ — ______ 32

__________________________[]_____________________

__________________________[]_____________________

Category Scoring for January to June 2025

FORECASTER ___IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS_TOTAL

Dacogawa ______120 _ 74 _ 81 _ 62 _ 44 _ 43 _____ 424

Artane2002 _____119 _ 74 _ 89 _ 52 _ 36 _ 26 _ 395-4=391

___Con Sensus __117 _ 70 _ 74 _ 49 _ 42 _ 39 _____ 391 

DOCARCH _______98 _ 70 _ 76 _ 48 _ 41 _ 47 _____ 380

Gonzo _________121 _ 71 _ 54 _ 48 _ 49 _ 37_ 380-3=377

Cornerstonelad __110 _ 76 _ 67 _ 34 _ 52 _ 38 _____ 377

Kindred Spirit ___123 _ 61 _ 57 _ 54 _ 36 _ 44 _____ 375

Jpmarn _________ 98 _ 78 _ 52 _ 56 _ 49 _ 41 _____ 374

MrSkinner _____ 121 _ 72 _ 51 _ 57 _ 41 _ 30 _____ 372

WolfeEire ______ 106 _ 79 _ 71 _ 37 _ 41 _ 34 _____ 368

Appledrop ______106 _ 77 _ 69 _ 37 _ 38 _ 36 _____ 363

waterways _____ 110 _ 73 _ 53 _ 43 _ 38 _ 44 _____ 361

Mr Stonewall ___ 107 _ 79 _ 59 _ 41 _ 36 _ 36 _____ 358

john mac ______ 106 _ 59 _ 66 _ 49 _ 34 _ 31 _____ 345

Tae laidir ______ 112 _ 60 _ 53 _ 44 _ 41 _ 32 _____ 342

Sunflower3 _____110 _ 59 _ 62 _ 53 _ 33 _ 23 _____ 340

Adam240610 ___106 _ 49 _ 58 _ 44 _ 48 _ 33 _338-8=330

M.T. Cranium ____95 _ 56 _ 45 _ 42 _ 46 _ 39 _____ 323

___Normal _____ 67 _ 63 _ 72 _ 54 _ 30 _ 37 _____ 323 

Dasa29 _______ 105 _ 36 _ 66 _ 36 _ 35 _ 38 _____ 316

Pauldry _______ 111 _ 37 _ 50 _ 29 _ 41 _ 44 _312-2=310

Joe Public ______ 85 _ 63 _ 43 _ 44 _ 45 _ 26 _306-2=304

Bsal (5/6)______ 94 _ 32 _ 73 _ 47 _ 29 _ 15 _____ 290

Esposito (5/6) __ 98 _ 44 _ 41 _ 28 _ 38 _ 26 _ 275-1=274

sryanbruen (4/6)_77 _ 51 _ 47 _ 26 _ 25 _ 26 _____ 252

200motels (4/6) _64 _ 29 _ 19 _ 26 _ 31 _ 34 _203-2=201

Icicle2025 (1/6) _ 20 _ 09 _ 01 _ 12 _ 07 _ 08 ______57

JCXBXC (1/6) ___ 11 _ 14 _ 00 _ 05 _ 07 _ 03 ___40-8=32

Top scores in categories are bold type, seconds are bold italics, third are regular italic.

Any designations for Con Sensus or NormaL are independent of forecaster score designations.

Two tied second for IMT means no third place designated (Dacogawa is one point back in fourth)

Two tied first for MAX means no second place designated.

MIN, PRC and SUN all have first, second and third place designations.

BONUS has a first place and three tied for second, so no third place is designated.

_________________

If you add the six highest category scores it comes to 452, a 28 point increase on leader Dacogawa who holds one of the six.

Note Bsal has missed one contest but is still in fourth place for MIN, so the average score is probably a 'first' in reality.