Presidential Election 2025

Eilís O'Hanlon thinks Leo may be lining up a run for the Áras. I doubt it, not least because FG won't back their former leader who walked out on them last year, and Eilís understands that Leo would lose in any event. I think his United Ireland talk is for the benefit of the Yanks who employ him now. Any candidate for the Áras should tread very carefully softly on that issue.

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/eilis-ohanlon-now-he-has-all-the-answers-does-leo-varadkar-plan-to-go-from-pub-bore-to-president/a774861667.html

The media are full of head-scratchers baffled by the lack of potential candidates for the ultimate plum job. There's no great mystery - the people who are best qualified i.e. former Taoisigh and senior Ministers, are not viable candidates because they are all damaged by the crash/austerity/tribunals. The next most credible group are "the great and the good" - people with exemplary CVs largely free from the taint of ordinary politics (like Mary Robinson and Mary McAleese) . But which of them does not have a skeleton or two in their closet? They would surely be exposed during the campaign. University Presidents might have the right CV but there are plenty of scandals in higher-level education. Jarlath Burns would look like a plausible candidate but he has ruled himself out - perhaps knowing that he would be hobbled by GAA+ "Vote for me - I took the best matches off your TV".

"Celebrities" are a catch-all category and some of them must be dreaming of more glory days in the Aras but anyone out of RTÉ can forget it. And the stars of our COVID lockdown? They're relieved that there'll be no public inquiry so they won't open themselves up to the intense scrutiny of this campaign. (Has Mike Ryan ruled himself out yet?)

Here's my best guess at this stage: FG will nominate Mairead (or maybe Sean Kelly but not Leo), FF will try to make a virtue of necessity by climbing on some bandwagon, the Left won't unite around a single candidate because the Shinners won't play ball with Ivana/Fergus. September could be hectic with unlikely names looking for Council nominations and Conor McGregor stinking up Council chambers.

That’s what the media are saying but it’s nonsense. Mary Robinson changed history because Dick Spring took the opposite approach- he sent her on a bus to every parish in the country six months before polling day (to the intense chagrin of Michael D. who backed Noel Browne). Sean Gallagher thrived during the 2011 campaign before he was nobbled at the last fence by SF/RTÉ. David Norris was never going to survive serious scrutiny outside the groves of academe. Adi Roche wasn’t going to win no matter how long or short her campaign. Ditto the other also-rans.

The parties are feeding this line to the media because they are not ready to take the plunge but they know that a credible candidate with a clean CV entering the field today would be difficult to dislodge as the front runner. Each party has its problems - FF can’t nominate one of their own because…. well, they’re FF. FG need to fix things with the members who blocked Mairéad in 2011. SF don’t want a repeat of the O Riada fiasco, Labour are trying to muster the Left around Fergus. While the parties try to get their respective acts together, the media spin the “clever to go late” excuse.

Don't try to smear me with repeal referendum sexism. I say "strident" is the right word for Noeline. It applies to both sexes and it means "expressing views in forceful language that does not try to avoid upsetting other people". That's not how to campaign for the Aras and absolutely not how the President of Ireland should behave. (yes, Michael D. has been strident at times - he doth protest much).

You say this word isn't used about men. Funny how we can now google up many counter-examples:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/17/duttons-strident-gaza-digression-drowns-out-liberals-epic-election-blunder-in-nsw-ntwnfb

Oh, and of course Trump gets lots

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14837667/Starmer-Trump-escalation-Iran-US-attack-nuclear-sites-president-regime-change.html

And there is no sexist pattern in Boards

https://www.boards.ie/search?domain=all_content&query=%22strident%22&scope=site&source=community

Your reaction says nothing about me but a lot about you.

John Drennan in the Irish Daily Mail is not buying the nonsense that the parties have sold to other media commentators about strategic delay. He knows the only reason the parties haven't nominated anyone yet is they can't find a credible candidate. As he says, it almost as if an exhausted political class have come to an unwritten agreement.

He points to the absurdity of the opposition parties bringing the Oireachtas to a standstill for months over a few minutes of speaking time but now they can't muster a candidate for the highest office.

https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-daily-mail/20250623/281706915659891?srsltid=AfmBOopyRn9F9rO630iLFVonwldvDh2I5cCpCoM6VWrC_sCBU71F7Bhh