Sixth Generation Fighter Development

It's got vibes of a job program for Boeing, given their financial issues. Every new aircraft since the B2 has suffered from massive cost overruns, couple with slashed production numbers, which lead to yet higher costs.

As ever, there's a strong element of missile gap panic that comes with reveals of new aircraft. Fact is the US is likely still 20 years ahead of anyone else technology wise, and especially in production capacity. Like the F-23 is still probably a superior aircraft to anything equivalent flying today, to include the F-35. It's pretty comical that Lockheed is suddenly coming out with a claim that they can field an upgraded version for less money, after the utter **** show it's been to date.

A recent wargame result from the Mitchell Institute on what the US requires to beat any near peer adversary (China are the OppFor). The report is based around the need for CCA drones but it gives a good overview of the current US force structure and reserves, highlighting the lack of operational reserves and depth.

it's surely a coincidence that these sort of studies always find the US deficient, in such a way that only spending lots more money can solve. Ukraine has highlighted a current issue with munition stocks and production capacity, but that's being addressed.

At the end of the day, the air force wouldn't be the important force in a war with China. The US Navy would blockade them and starve them out. The biggest determinant, outside of a nuclear exchange, would be the effects of the cyber attacks that would be unleashed. The simple reality, from what I've read, is that China is particularly vulnerable to food and fuel shortages in a way the US isn't.

Food shortages, yes. China imports massive amounts, much of it actually from the US. Fuel, yes it imports a large amount but it also has direct land access to Russia and it's fuel resources.

Similarly, the USN whilst being the point of the spear in any direct confrontation with China, will find a mercantile blockade quite difficult feat to implement against a nation that has massive land borders and alternative routes available.

I agree with you that, as always, and as you alluded to earlier. The knee jerk response is always "missile gap" need more airframes, weapons & money. It's part of the resource competition.

You mentioned earlier IIRC that the US has a lead in the tech and in stealth production capacity. I agree with your 1st point but I'd disagree on the second. Yes the US has a tech lead but it is being reined in.

On production rates. The conservative estimate is that China currently has approx 200 J20 in service (via Jane's and linked above). There is a strong minority report via multiple long term PLAAF watchers though that number of J20 in service is closer to 400.

Couple that with the J35 entering PLAN and PakAF service in the near future. Pakistan have ordered 40, and they expect that order to be completed within 2yrs. That speaks to a strong production capacity, at least 40 airframes per year (split between PakAF & PLAN) and likely double that rate IMHO.

So with J20 production rate estimated at 100-120 and J35 at minimum 40, and likely 80-100 units per year Vs Lockheed F35 at 110 per year. The Chinese are already outbuilding US 5th gen at 2:1 and that with very little of their production being exported. Apart from Pakistan, all the Chinese jets and especially the J20s are for domestic use.

Now it's of course important to point out that we don't know what American production rates will be for their F47 & FA-XX. But, by that logic we must acknowledge that we don't know what Chinese production rates for J50 & J36 will be. The advantage could well continue into the 6th Gen.

Now on top of that, China is still building J10, J15 & J15 to the tune of an additional 200 4.5gen airframes a year. The US currently cannot match that output and bar shifting to a full wartime economy would be unlikely to.

Also in the mix on the resources and build rate competition is ships and hulls. The USN recently moved to allow repair, refit and other MRO work to be undertaken at South Korean yards. It's also considering having ships built in South Korean wards to rapidly allow fleet growth. US ship building is suffering from decades of decline and is having serious issues in both recruitment and in ramping production. One of the metrics mentioned in one of the articles below is that China's shipbuilding capacity is x230 times that of the US.

They certainly don't have enough to prevent a crisis and likely societal collapse in the event of blockade, especially if the US decides to destroy the Three Gorges Dam. I'm sure China could cause all manner of catastrophic issues for the US, via cyber and conventional missile attacks, but they simply can't inflict the same level of pain without everything going nuclear.

The US is far IMHO far more likely to encounter societal collapse in a prolonged conflict than China. Yes they have the resources to be entirely self sufficient barring very minerals. But the current admin is the culmination of decades of internal strife, identity politics and individualism. The gaps in US society are as wide or indeed wider than they have ever been.

Those gaps would be magnified by any conflict with China in the near term. That internal conflict would make the last 60yrs of anti-war protest look tame.

Add to that flashpoint, a consumer society denuded of its basics, of its expected food, tech, clothing and day to day luxuries that have become deriguer. Do you think outside of the preppers and the rural yanks, that urban America can survive that level of privation? Without riot?

Compare that to China, where the creation and homologation of cultural identity has been at the centre of the CCCP project. That's on top of millennia of Chinese history. They have weathered every invader, every single threat and they've remained.

A Chinese commentator on C4 news at the start of the trade war made the point that "they don't care, they've been here thousands of years before the USA, and they'll be here after the USA has gone"

I'm very far from being a Sino-supremacist. I don't believe their culturally or militarily superior. They do however have serious advantages. Even with a US withdrawal from Europe and a pivot to the Pacific? They are still stretched thin. They are reliant upon Regional allies for both military and basing support and the current admin is hell bent on torching those allies on the altar of a very skewed understanding of economics.

The US has a massive advantage in the naval realm. US subs would likely have free reign along China's coast and the possibility of mass aerial mining has been game planned before.

They do 100% but even discounting DF21 and similar as a threat to CSGs. The Chinese buildup in FFGs & Destroyers has been massive.

Similar to the Imperial Kriegsmarine pre WW1 and their efforts to overmatch the RN in North Sea. The Chinese seems to be banking on maintaining ship and firepower advantage within the 2nd island chain.

To defeat the USN, China needs 2 things, attrition and to keep the USN's CSGs outside of any meaningful strikes radius. Their strategy is area denial and they will be far more willing to take casualties than USN to achieve that supremacy.

I think the Chinese believe they can do this with a combo of Naval mass, DF21 and H6 launched KD21 missiles. Yes USN Aegis will detect and track them, SMs will likely intercept a majority of the launches, but? I'd hazard the Chinese will launch from well outside any CAP, protecting the launch aircraft and that they will seek to saturate any defence.

That stand off launch threat is IMHO part and parcel of why the USN have deployed the SM3 onboard the F18E/F as an AAM. Adding 400km to a 600km Stationed CAP offers some hope of interdiction. Similarly the introduction of the AIM120-D3 and the rumoured entry into service of AIM-260 all push out the engagement boundary.

I don't see how China would win a conflict in the long run, there's too many factors that are against them

I think as I outlined above, that China is far more likely to emerge from a conflict with the US as an intact society.

On the stealth capabilities of the Chinese 5th gen. Everything is conjecture and I'd question the triplane layout of the J20 especially, but?

They don't need to be perfect, I'd certainly rate them better than SU5, what they do need to do?

Is allow their platforms to close within a range where they can detect and shoot 1st. That spells serious issue for US 4th & 4.5gen and the decrease in detection ranges without knowing the detection ranges of Chinese AESA radars?

Is a gamble that will vex planners until shots are fired.

Another caveat I'd add is that until we in the west get a handle on whether the Chinese have a competent ASW strategy?

That there may well be a degree of over reliance placed on SSNs. What if the Japanese & Swedes have been right all along and ultr stealthy SSKs have been the way.

On the aeroengine front. Again I agree with you re engine development in China (and Russia) seemingly being stalled with Russia flogging the AL31 & AL41 but China do at least seem to have managed to bring the WS10 into service.

Service intervals on the Russian engines are awful and the Chinese ones are an unknown quantity as of yet. Reports are 1500hrs between overhauls Vs 1000 for the AL31, nowhere near US or Euro standards but a big improvement on Russian engines. Will be very interesting as WS10 appears to be decent per reports from Pakistan.

A lot of China's aeroengine future for military depends on the WS15 being successful and again, that's entering service this year. Will it be successful? I don't know, but it will certainly cause US more headaches via supercruising and non afterburning J20s.

I do take your point about the urban Chinese, as a riposte to my own point. Yes, they have had 30 or so years of rampant economic growth. What would the outcome of a reduction in food/fuel result in for them and what would it's societal impact be. Fair point.

The country is barely a generation removed from endemic famine. A culture of state before person has existed in China for millennia. It won't win a war but the level of privation willing to be endured in the name of "China" will be a good deal more than that of an American seeking to counter "Chiiiiiiina".

On a purely cultural basis, as much as I am loathe to generalise and reduce an analysis to mere tropes. The ability of China to endure should not be underestimated. They have demonstrated it again and again. From disaster recovery, to even the foundation of the CCCP itself in enduring the Sino-japanese war, the Civil War, the long March and still managing to win the Civil War.

China has a demonstrable and very recent history of enduring and overcoming. Aswell as long history of it too. Of being beaten, written off and still clawing it's way back.

America, for all it's greatness. Has no such history. Apart from it's foundation and a few weeks during the 1812 war, America has never faced existential threat(in terms of invasion, occupation and control. The Cold War was existential for the globe 😉). It has very rarely endured a nationwide famine none I can recall really since the 19th century.

The cold war and mutually assured destruction was for the US, an era of economic boom. Until Reagan at least and at that point? Despite the fears of Nuclear Armageddon, Russia had already lost and was an economic basket case.

America outspent Russia, destroyed Russia & Warsaw Blocs economy and did so whilst funding much of the world and enduring no real economic pain.

America after 1812, has always been in a position where it can bring more treasure, more resources, more people and often, more ingenuity to the battle. It is entering a period of renewed great power competition where it doesn't hold that explicit advantage anymore IMO. There is no history of American triumph in the face of prolonged adversity as a nation. Rather when they take a bloody nose, they roll up their sleeves and out produce and outfight opponents. Successfully so to date.

China has spend decades laying the ground work for a run at upending the post WW2 system. Russia's fúck acting has massively accelerated that. The US trade secretary came out against the Bretton Woods system on wednesday. The attacks on the IMF, WTO, WHO and World Bank amongst others in Trump term 1 and the acceleration of undermining the institutions in the 1st 100 days of Trump 2 have been a gift to China. Trump is seeking to dismantle 80yrs of US influence and soft power, with zero alternative system proposed.

What was initially IMO a Chinese plan to push a multipolar system, a return to blocs has now spun into an overall collapse of international system. The Chinese and Russians now have the opportunity to literally dismantle the post war economic and diplomatic system. On top of that? They can do it by leveraging their control of huge amounts of US debt and FX reserves.

The damage that tariff madness and Trump's effort to undermine independence of the Fed have caused to the $ status as a reserve currency and haven are massive. It will lead to an acceleration in the unwinding of the $ as a commerce currency and as primary intl trade currency.

The yuan won't replace it, but they won't mourn it's passing.

We are shifting massively away from the topic of 6th Gen aircraft. So to get back to that in a small way at least.

I do think that only the J50 is a true Chinese effort at 6th Gen. How good it is? Hopefully we never have to find out. As if we do? It really will only be as the result of open warfare between nuclear armed states. Be it countering USA or perhaps India, it will be a global disaster.

However the alliances play out? US & AUKUS with their Asian allies, whatever happens with NATO and who knows what might emerge from the ME. Only AUKUS, Japan & S.Korea seem to matter to current US regime as 1st line allies. China has no such powerful allies to rely on outside of Russia. Their other likely candidates are tied to them via debt, infrastructure or arms.

On those arms, much of them derived from Russian tech a lot rests. Russian gear is failing hugely in Russian hands. Is that a manpower/training issue? The Ukrainian forces operating Buk and S300 and other sov origin systems seem to do so far more competently than the Russians to currently.

I don't know how best to assess the problems with Russian tactics and operations without falling into a meat grinder trap. Yet, Ukraine have been guilty of the same failings on occasion. Is it a result of lingering soviet doctrine?

As to how the Chinese may operate their own derived gear? It rests very much on the professionalism (or not) of their military. If they can operate to competent and professional levels, be it in AA, ASW or Infantry and A.N other roles? They will already be operating at levels above Russia.

Don't discount China's own development programmes in both equipment and training either. They have spent decades hiring retired western officers, pilots and NCOs to hone their programmes. We don't know if that's paid any real dividends for them and won't until and unless a conflict goes hot.

I'd like to lean towards us hopefully never knowing.