Sixth Generation Fighter Development

Lorddrakul

While the strict definition of a sixth generation fighter varies between sources, there is little argument that the race is on for a new generation of air dominance combat aircraft.

While the US NGAD programme has now solidified into the Boeing F-47, the Tempest, the TAI Kaan, and SU-75 are, arguably, lesser known quantities.

What's going on in China is equally interesting, with new videos emerging of the likes of the J-36, with its three engine, tandem cockpit configuration leaving many scratching their heads as to whether it is a fighter or a strike aircraft or an interesting hybrid.

Lockheed Martin has been reported to be planning a 'NASCAR' upgrade to the F-35 to give it 80% of the F-47's performance for 20% of the price.

With so much happening in this field, it would be good to have a discussion thread to share opinions, analysis and sources, as well as indulge in a bit of wild speculation.

Larbre34

Always interesting to hear about new innovations, but I think its fair to say that nobody even has the 5th Generation formula right yet. Especially in terms of operational costs and serviceability.

And so we see many of the big militaries going back to the mass production of revised 4th generation multi-role planes.

Lorddrakul

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123386371#Comment_123386371

That's a good point on operational costs.

Also, serviceability seems to be an issue with the F-35 and available hours seems to have dwindled.

The quality/quantity argument in today's environment seems to determine quite a bit.

banie01

The SU75 will remain vaporware unless Russia can convince India to fund it in full IMHO. It's a paper fighter that has still yet to progress beyond a mockup. I honestly think barring a license agreement with India that has full ToT and 3rd party sales rights, that Checkmate won't enter service.

There are also some rumours flying around that despite the debacle of FGFA, that the above type of deal including full engine tech transfer is precisely what Russia are offering India for the SU57.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/su-75-checkmate-5-reasons-russias-cheap-stealth-fighter-fraud-208182

KAAN and Boramae Block 2 will be 5th gen rather than 6th. They do demonstrate that both Turkey and Korea see a need for the ability to have domestic production and technology for fighters. That speaks to a loss of trust in the USA.

The Tempest and the growth of the basic design over the past couple of years speak to a growing RAF & JASDF realisation that long range strike and penetrating counter air air going to important for their needs. Large ocean environment offshore and contested airspace likely over adjacent mainlands. Similarly Italy will see those capabilities as key for control of the Med.

https://x.com/nicholadrummond/status/1815335992187834591

https://twitter.com/nicholadrummond/status/1815335992187834591

https://twitter.com/nicholadrummond/status/1815335992187834591

https://twitter.com/nicholadrummond/status/1815335992187834591

https://www.twz.com/air/uk-emphasizes-need-to-arm-tempest-stealth-fighter-with-larger-longer-range-air-to-air-missiles

https://twitter.com/nicholadrummond/status/1815335992187834591

https://twitter.com/nicholadrummond/status/1815335992187834591

The Chinese have long been rumoured to be working on a strike platform to fill the tactical & sub strategic roles that don't require a Xian H20.

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/t/chengdu-next-gen-combat-aircraft-j-36-thread.9157/page-68

I think the Chinese 6th Gen "fighter" will be the J50 with the J36 as a strike platform or perhaps even a stealth stand off launch platform to allow China penetrate within 400km of AWACS & A2A tankers to take them out with long range AAMs. I think the J50 will be the Chinese fighter they see pitted against the F47 & F-XX

https://www.twz.com/air/chinas-j-50-tailless-stealth-fighter-seen-in-new-imagery

Also important to note that aswell as approx 200+ Chengdu J20 already built.(Conservative est. iMO)

https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-and-national-security-analysis/post/special-report-china-inducts-additional-j-20-stealth-fighters

That China is very rapidly inducting the J35 as a deck based 5th Gen aswell as already agreeing an export deal with Pakistan. That puts India in the precarious position of facing 5th Gen fighters operated by both it's primary Regional competition whilst operating none of its own.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenyang_J-35

The Franco-German FCAS will be worth keeping an eye on too. Dassault are already trying to control the development & design and Airbus may well decide that they don't want to be steamrolled into accepting whatever France decides.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/6th-gen-franco-german-spanish-fcas-fighters/?amp

Also worth keeping an eye what comes out of the USN 6th Gen effort the FA-XX. Rumours are that it will be a Northrop Grumman airframe. A long heritage in naval aircraft and even now, 30yrs after the TFX competition, the YF23 is still quite an airframe and it should IMO have been the winner in that particular competition.

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2025/04/08/fa-xx-could-be-navys-last-piloted-fighter-bring-greater-range/

All these races for airframes are rounded out by India and it's efforts to develop 1 5th gen and 1 new 4.5gen aircraft concurrently in their AMCA and TEDBF.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/HAL_AMCA

All that work ongoing whilst still trying to induction the Tejas in 3 almost simultaneous variants mk1, mk1A and MK2. This is all happening while India is desperately short of fighters aswell as facing severe Regional completion.

https://idrw.org/why-tedbf-will-be-a-5-minus-class-fighter-and-not-a-naval-amca/

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/explained-how-new-tejas-fighter-jet-variant-is-different-from-its-predecessor-5685154

India is having issues with GE providing engines on time and what with America now courting them? F35s may be needed as a shortcut to counteract Chinese mass in 5th gen along with Pak acquiring Chinese J35.

AbusesToilets

It's got vibes of a job program for Boeing, given their financial issues. Every new aircraft since the B2 has suffered from massive cost overruns, couple with slashed production numbers, which lead to yet higher costs.

As ever, there's a strong element of missile gap panic that comes with reveals of new aircraft. Fact is the US is likely still 20 years ahead of anyone else technology wise, and especially in production capacity. Like the F-23 is still probably a superior aircraft to anything equivalent flying today, to include the F-35. It's pretty comical that Lockheed is suddenly coming out with a claim that they can field an upgraded version for less money, after the utter **** show it's been to date.

banie01

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123386527#Comment_123386527

At the time of the initial 737 Max issues I posted over on the Boeing thread on my opinion of where they would end up. One of the outcomes I posted was them either being split into 2 or 3 units, Military, Civil and Space. Or their gaining some new contracts, the F15EX and now the F47 appear to point to the 2nd option being the outcome alright.

That said, they are still in absolute quality meltdown and if that carries into their Mil airframes & F47? Or should I say continues, given KC46, Poseidon and T7 programmes are all quality nightmares.

banie01

A recent wargame result from the Mitchell Institute on what the US requires to beat any near peer adversary (China are the OppFor). The report is based around the need for CCA drones but it gives a good overview of the current US force structure and reserves, highlighting the lack of operational reserves and depth.

https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/app/uploads/2024/01/CCA-Wargame-Rollout-Briefing-FINAL.pdf

Larbre34

Thats certainly a major concern for all western militaries. The decision of so many, particularly NATO, countries to do away with national service and degrade 2nd line reserve operations is coming back to haunt them.

At the end of the Cold War, the British military was 340,000 strong. Now in 2025 including the TA, Gurkhas etc its 184,800, and that's probably stretching it.

West Germany had a peak Cold War strength of some 495,000. Now the figure for the unified Germany in 2025 is also around 180,000.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123386893#Comment_123386893

it's surely a coincidence that these sort of studies always find the US deficient, in such a way that only spending lots more money can solve. Ukraine has highlighted a current issue with munition stocks and production capacity, but that's being addressed.

At the end of the day, the air force wouldn't be the important force in a war with China. The US Navy would blockade them and starve them out. The biggest determinant, outside of a nuclear exchange, would be the effects of the cyber attacks that would be unleashed. The simple reality, from what I've read, is that China is particularly vulnerable to food and fuel shortages in a way the US isn't.

Larbre34

But sure the US Navy is increasingly dependent on the F-35, as the venerable F/A-18 Hornet is rotated out.

Although perhaps they have realised the error of their ways, as in line with the point I made above, the US Navy is now ordering more new-build E/F Super Hornets out to 2028.

banie01

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123389231#Comment_123389231

Food shortages, yes. China imports massive amounts, much of it actually from the US. Fuel, yes it imports a large amount but it also has direct land access to Russia and it's fuel resources.

Similarly, the USN whilst being the point of the spear in any direct confrontation with China, will find a mercantile blockade quite difficult feat to implement against a nation that has massive land borders and alternative routes available.

I agree with you that, as always, and as you alluded to earlier. The knee jerk response is always "missile gap" need more airframes, weapons & money. It's part of the resource competition.

You mentioned earlier IIRC that the US has a lead in the tech and in stealth production capacity. I agree with your 1st point but I'd disagree on the second. Yes the US has a tech lead but it is being reined in.

On production rates. The conservative estimate is that China currently has approx 200 J20 in service (via Jane's and linked above). There is a strong minority report via multiple long term PLAAF watchers though that number of J20 in service is closer to 400.

Couple that with the J35 entering PLAN and PakAF service in the near future. Pakistan have ordered 40, and they expect that order to be completed within 2yrs. That speaks to a strong production capacity, at least 40 airframes per year (split between PakAF & PLAN) and likely double that rate IMHO.

So with J20 production rate estimated at 100-120 and J35 at minimum 40, and likely 80-100 units per year Vs Lockheed F35 at 110 per year. The Chinese are already outbuilding US 5th gen at 2:1 and that with very little of their production being exported. Apart from Pakistan, all the Chinese jets and especially the J20s are for domestic use.

Now it's of course important to point out that we don't know what American production rates will be for their F47 & FA-XX. But, by that logic we must acknowledge that we don't know what Chinese production rates for J50 & J36 will be. The advantage could well continue into the 6th Gen.

Now on top of that, China is still building J10, J15 & J15 to the tune of an additional 200 4.5gen airframes a year. The US currently cannot match that output and bar shifting to a full wartime economy would be unlikely to.

Also in the mix on the resources and build rate competition is ships and hulls. The USN recently moved to allow repair, refit and other MRO work to be undertaken at South Korean yards. It's also considering having ships built in South Korean wards to rapidly allow fleet growth. US ship building is suffering from decades of decline and is having serious issues in both recruitment and in ramping production. One of the metrics mentioned in one of the articles below is that China's shipbuilding capacity is x230 times that of the US.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/04/south-koreas-hd-hhi-seeks-role-in-u-s-fleet-expansion/

https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2025/03/11/chinas-shipbuilding-dominance-a-national-security-risk-for-us-report/#:~:text=In%20only%20two%20decades%2C%20China,according%20to%20a%20report%20released

https://www.newsweek.com/china-map-navy-ships-2044043