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Donald Trump the Megathread part II - mod warnings in OP, Updated 18/03/25

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,469 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Nothing.

    Nobody has had or will have any wins in this shîtshow. Every country will lose; some will lose more than others. The US will lose more than most.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    The minimum wage in California is $16.50 an hour. The minimum wage in Mexico is  $13.75 USD a day.

    If they want Californians to sew suits and t-shirts, the labour costs are going to go up by a factor of about 8.

    I think it's safe to say, none of this has been properly thought out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,207 ✭✭✭dmakc


    Without getting into the China battle, or piling in on the Trump bashing; am I correct in saying that as of last month, on average tariffs were less than 2%, Trump then reset the floor at 10%, which negotiations over the next three months can scale between 10%-20% thereafter.

    More relevant to Ireland, he has been careful to exclude pharma from this generic listing (which I'd suggest is not coincidental). Moreover, our representative here is a man who, as health minister, thought Covid 19 implied that there were 18 previous Covids.

    I think people need to pump the brakes on the parade, Trump seems to have tricked the world into feeling victorious with a minimum five-/seven-fold increase with barely a NET blip on indices



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 446 ✭✭Will_I_Amnt


    Exhibit A:

    Two people standing in the oval office yesterday who made $2.5 billion and $900 million in one day….yesterday



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,639 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,540 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    They, and all other elected officials, their staff and family members, should be prohibitied from trading, not "obliged to disclose".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 255 ✭✭pad406


    They need to introduce fines like the Finnish Speeding fines, they are proportionate to the speeders income.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,394 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    So was the previous rumour the other day, just to test the market reaction so those in the know, can gauge the reaction?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,207 ✭✭✭dmakc


    I never said it was intentional, it's fairly evident that it wasn't. But care to dispute the field now compared to last week? Setting a floor for tariffs at 10% with minimal net market impact comes across as a steal. Throw in the view that the country that increased the tariffs is viewed as soft / backing down, I think many are losing sight of the bigger picture by focusing on one man



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,285 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    You make your comments as if they're a matter of fact. I have no idea what's happening but I have ideas what could happen. Ultimately I'll just analyse the outcome and move on with my life.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 384 ✭✭poop emoji


    The only thing Trump accomplished is reveal his weak card hand

    China, Europe, Japan etc now know what Trump fears the most and can use this to grab and squeeze the US by the …erm treasuries



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,537 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    But it's a tariff on his own citizens, they will still have to import goods that can't produce , but pay more,I don't see anyone fooled other than Americans.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 384 ✭✭poop emoji


    Speaking of Americans being fooled, the stock ticker returned to Fox News main channel and website, it apparently was on vacation for last while



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 738 ✭✭✭RickBlaine


    The president only has tariff powers to respond to an emergency. The fact that he paused them for 90 days clearly illustrates there is no emergency. This would matter if congress actually did its job and hold the president to account - the checks and balances that are fundamental to the American government. It's pathetic that these GOP members of congress all claim to be patriotic and proud Americans yet they fail to do one of their core duties of being part of the American congress.

    Likewise with GOP representatives tweeting how great it is that people are being deported without due process despite that being undeniably un-American as per the American constitution.

    They are all corrupt charlatans and hopefully their legacies will be in tatters when future history books are written.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    They've always known that. But it's a M.A.D. situation. The more they try to sell the Bonds, the more worthless their remaining in Bonds become. Not unlike the Banks in 2008 trying to offload their CDOs.

    Nate



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,639 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    They did back down. Just because they didn't fully back down doesn't mean they didn't back down.

    If you reverse only half way up a road you still reversed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,207 ✭✭✭dmakc


    If you looked at it less emotively and more objectively, you'd see that they're still in a far better position than they were a week ago. Which is what I'm saying.

    "Backing down" occurs in just about every bilateral negotiation. Set the bar higher than you expect.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,639 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Don't try tell me how I am looking at things. I am looking at this objectively.

    If he wanted to do 10% he could have. But he made it very clear over and over with his fake figures board and his tweet rants that he wanted 20+ and he would not back down.

    There was no bilateral negotiation. There was Trump fuking up and backtracking. And this is absolutely not how international negotiation is done which is clear by how shocked all the international negotiators were.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,688 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    If Americans could get past the obsession with fashion, especially fast fashion, and make well constructed, durable, long-term-appealing garments from ecologically sound fabrics - even though more expensive to purchase - they might be on to something. This is not going to happen in a country that worships fashion and consumerism, but it would be great for the planet. It would sink the fashion industry though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭LambshankRedemption




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,048 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    What a complete and humiliating climb down by Trump. God knows what must have been about to happen with bonds, the market, the dollar, or whatever that Trump was forced into such an embarrassing climbdown.

    And that is exactly what it is. This was never part of the plan. If Trump wanted to target China, he could have. Instead he tried to take on the entire world, made on arse of himself with his Liberation Day nonsense and within a few hours was already talking about negoatiations and trying to scare countries into not taking action.

    But he seemingly forgot that Canada had already shown that he could be bullied back and the best form of defence was to stand strong. China did, the EU did, and it seems that apart from these, magic, 75 countries, everyone else did.

    A poster is making the point that 10% tariffs will be a net win for the US, but that fails to take into account the massive damage Trump has done to the credibility of the US as a stable trading partner.

    Secondly, Trump is now a completely lame duck POTUS. This was his signature 'policy' and he capitulated within a week, but not before causing massive damage to the US economy (and the world, but the US voter isn't concerned about that).

    The US is now a laughing stock. Trump said he would make America strong again, and in several months, he has put it into the weakest it has probably ever been.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,780 ✭✭✭✭Grayson




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 446 ✭✭Will_I_Amnt


    The president only has tariff powers to respond to an emergency.

    Not really. For as long as congress permits it, the President can impose tariffs or other trade restrictions if the Department of Commerce finds that imports threaten national security - It doesn't have to be an immediate emergency. The president is also allowed to respond to "unfair" foreign trade practices like IP theft or subsidies with tariffs or other measures. These laws give the president flexibility to act without needing Congress to pass new legislation each time but congress can revoke this permission at any time - which this congress is not going to do, not least because Trump can and would veto it if it didn't have a two-thirds supermajority in both chambers! The Dems should have attempted to get this through on a simple majority last year to cover the case of a Trump win! Might have been tough to get it thru the house but at least they had the senate and the whitehouse then!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,033 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    "but not before causing massive damage to the US economy (and the world, but the US voter isn't concerned about that)."

    But that's the thing. He doesn't care about the damage either.

    He and his mates have made their money, and I bet the next big scandal will be how he is manipulating something else so that he makes even more money out of his role as President.

    Meanwhile, Project 2025 roles on, America's reputation circles the drain and people of colour continue to be targeted…

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,015 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    the reputation stopped circling when they elected a convict as president. Its just a non-stop meme now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,207 ✭✭✭dmakc


    Say what you want about Trump, I've no real opinion on him. But until you can acknowledge the bigger picture, that tariffs have increased seven-fold to a floor of 10%, potentially higher to come with negotiations to follow, you're not looking at this objectively.

    Backing down or backtracking would be the original tariff figure.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,992 ✭✭✭ronjo


    Today they have….. they could be 0% tomorrow or they could be 100%



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,682 ✭✭✭yagan


    In this ABC Australia business news clip he highlights what's being overlooked after the tariff pause

    the weighted average US tariff actually went up, not down, last night because of the new 125% tariff on China. If you assume a 50% drop in imports from China plus the 25% tariff on steel/aluminium and cars you still get to the same average level as the Smooth Haley tariff of 1930 that worsened or maybe caused the great depression.

    The US markets are high on adrenalin while the world sells out of the USD.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,639 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    " I've no real opinion on him."

    You're fooling no one kid. This place is full of "neutral" people who just happen to be repeating the party line.

    If you go from 25 to 10 what direction is that going ? It certainly isn't forwards.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,540 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    Can you link to the evidence you're suggesting exists that proves this market manipulation wasn't intentional?



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