Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Quote from Head of Eli lilly

We can't breach those agreements so we have to eat the cost of the tariffs and make trade offs within our own companies. Typically that will be in reduction of staff or research and development (R&D) and I predict R&D will come first. That's a disappointing outcome

Understandable, but if I were sale agreed on a house that I liked for a price that I could afford, I would not pull out.

The latest figures I can see for hotel occupancy for 2024 overall have Dublin at 80%, and the rest of the country at 76%. But thats with about 1/3rd of hotel beds countrywide used for IPAS.

If we stop wasting billions of tax payer euros on this, and actually control our borders, and stop this usage theres absolutely no shortage of hotels in the country. Its not a justification for letting AirBNBs exist in RPZ at all.

If you read it, what he is saying is the job losses will be in the US first and foremost as that's where most of their R&D is.

Your post makes no sense. Elaborate on the 60-80k jobs. Autos have nothing to do with Ireland.

If you are just being generic here on reshoring activity, fine, but please tie that to 60-80k jobs. It's almost as if you are suggesting that is not an insignificant number. That's a huge number of well paid jobs. Those jobs would likely support 2-3% of our population directly. Indirectly the tax will pay the welfare of another chunk. It is a material number and a material problem, if you are suggesting the Government are underselling it then you don't understand what you are talking about.

So please elaborate on your post - you said "someone is wrong here". Tie together the Irish government statement to your links to Auto reshoring.

A release published by Failte Ireland in June 2023 noted that the group had previously estimated that “28% of all Failte Ireland registered tourism bed stock was contracted to the State” and that “excluding Dublin, the figure was provided as 34%”

This was almost two years, and approx 40,000 new asylum seekers ago. The figure is likely even higher now.

Beds not being rooms is semantics, the figures are very clear that a huge percentage of our tourist accomodation stock is being expensively used for the IPAS system, at tax payers cost. If that capacity was added back into our tourist system occupancy rates would be far lower.

Preventing the return of AirBNBs to the rental market because tourists need accomodation is far less logical (and far more expensive for the state, and renters) than the state simply returning a huge percentage of our hotels back to their intended use.

Hmm. More than one commentator remarked that a major reset to the global economy was only avoided in 2020 by nuclear levels of money printing. I don't know enough to comment , but you have to wonder how much of the growth seen in the last 5 years was just down to that?

Ah are you hung up on the old Air BnB as well? Have a bit of integrity when representing them, what I said was that Air BnB was not a panacea to our housing issues and that it receives undue media attention.

2-3% directly supported and then the tax revenues supporting probably another couple of percent on a run rate basis is of far more impact than a once off Air BnB impact.

Ah are you getting into the "I know you are but what am I" stuff now? Ronan Lyons is not a household name, he is someone wonks or industry people know. The general narrative on Air BnB is negative. It has influenced government policy to a significant degree.

It's a simple fact on the housing units that came back to the market during a sustained (and unknown) period of tourist shutdown.

What the actual shortage of rental and wider housing units is to be debated. I can read any of the "household" need assessments (with their wild deviation in how many homes are needed) and criticise them based on the assumptions within. That is the problem - these are reported widely by a journalistic corps who do not have the basic interest in trying to understand them so we get the Davy reports with their wild assumptions. But supply denialists are absolute fools who believe in magic dust and a society where the State can click their fingers and reorder things, there is absolutely no doubt that Ireland has a severe shortage of housing stock.

I'm sure there were lots of clap emojis at the end for your brilliant calming words.

One way we know there's a rental shortage AND an Airbnb problem is that local authorities are providing emergency accomodation to some people by means of accommodation vouchers, vouchers which are used to pay for.... Airbnbs.

If those airbnbs were available for long term rent at market rents the families may not need emergency accomodation in the first place!