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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,533 ✭✭✭Deub


    It is a big If. It is a wait and see game. I don’t think Americans will like the inflation coming their way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,982 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Can the great and the good in this thread educate me please.
    With regard to pharma, how do US tariffs have an impact on US companies based in Ireland?
    Let’s take Pfizer for example, they export to the USA and make certain drugs in Ireland that they export from Pfizer IRE to Pfizer USA.

    They will have to pay (potentially in the future) a 25% tariff to the USA government on the drugs they are importing into the USA from Ireland.
    They pass that cost onto the USA customer.
    The USA customer does not like this and reduces the demand for these drugs and actively looks for an indigenous drugs manufacturer to replace Pfizer.
    This process takes years as a new manufacturing plant would have to be setup to cater for the demand for the drugs in the USA and replace the Irish manufactured drugs.
    During this time Pfizer start selling into Canada, Mexico, Asia etc to cover the lower demand in the USA.

    Prices don’t increase (bar inflation of course) anywhere else outside of the USA because…..well why would they?

    In this scenario, why are Irish pharma jobs at risk?

    Surely the only loser in this is the American consumer through increased drug and health insurance premiums?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 249 ✭✭pad406


    As a programmer for 40 years, I seriously hope your company does not produce any critical software



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 112 ✭✭Barry_Soweto


    It's not as simple as you say to just replace sales from one country in another country.

    If say, Pfizer, sell 10bn to the USA and now you say they should just sell 10bn more to Canada, then if they could do that already, they'd be doing that and planning more manufacturing plants to meet that demand.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,523 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Surely the only loser in this is the American consumer through increased drug and health insurance premiums?

    Pretty much.

    Tariffs on pharma will, in the short run, just make people poorer and sicker. There is currently fairly little evidence they will help in the long run either.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,982 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Well maybe not.
    Maybe this is the kick in the ass that companies like Pfizer need to start looking at different and emerging markets such as Asia.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 112 ✭✭Barry_Soweto


    That's probably why pharma has been excluded so far. There will be something for pharma but not sure if it'll be tariffs. I think the main issue Donny has with pharma is accounting, running tax through Ireland for IP.

    It wouldn't surprise me if the approach was to get more tax paid back in the US and promote future investments there rather than trying to scale back operations here. The drugs are needed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 112 ✭✭Barry_Soweto


    MNCs exist to maximise their profit.

    If there was opportunities elsewhere, they'd already have expanded.

    Roughly a third of Irelands exports are pharma to the US, approx 60bn a year.

    Even if 10% of that was knocked off, 6bn per year, imagine how many employees are required to manufacture 6bn worth of product a year. You're probably talking one large scale site of around 4 or 5k direct employees. Then all the sub contractors and local industries impacted also.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,928 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    It’s a tax on US consumers

    The cost to US companies (as reflected in their stock prices falling through the floor) is in the shape of them not having any certainty in how they operate in a world where their business environment changes day to day, and maybe even consumer boycotts like Tesla

    If Trump just came out and said there be an X % tarrifs on everyone the markets would just have shrugged, but instead we have incredible uncertainty, uncertainty leads to pause in investment and employment (seeing both already) these lead to potentially a self perpetuating doom loop into a US recession

    There is a thread on Reddit where a diabetic lady from Atlanta is complaining that her insurance won’t cover Ozempic (made in Denmark) or the similar one made by Lilly in Ireland, to self fund outside insurance it would cost her $2000 per month, same drug here is about 140euro

    I used to be sympathetic to Americans but it’s hard to be any more these days, they dug themselves into a hole which contains a den of leopards who love munching on faces



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,955 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    they were bullsh1tted by an extremely good con man, and now theyre getting him hard! desperate people tend to make desperate and bad decisions, theyve been screwed over continuously by all admins, so they went with the con man



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,928 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    A month later Europe keeps turning out as the winner

    We should hammer home that Europe is the place to be for stability, rule of law, democracy, innovation and stable investments

    While Trump tries to turn US into Gilead from Handmaidens Tale we can all win bigly

    https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/most-asian-currencies-consolidate-ahead-of-u-s-employment-data-fed-chairs-speech-1810b721

    0755 GMT – The euro is proving the surprise beneficiary in the aftermath of U.S. President Trump’s announcement of sweeping trade tariffs late on Wednesday as investors pull out of risky assets and out of the dollar, ING analyst Chris Turner says in a note. The “alternative liquidity offered by the euro” as investors pull out of the dollar is the likely reason behind the euro’s gains. This is despite a potentially substantial hit to the eurozone economy from the tariffs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 112 ✭✭Barry_Soweto


    I think, like Ireland, there's people here who think that because they're doing alright that everyone else is doing alright and should be happy with the status quo.

    American insurers were pulling out of paying for Ozempic and the likes long before Trump even got elected.

    The price of eggs and gas is far more important to a lot of people in the US than the price of Ferrari's or Scottish whiskey.

    12 of the last 16 years has been run by Democratic President and the voters decided they preferred the period of 4 years under the Republican President.

    It's the exact same as FFG voters derisory comments about people who vote for SF saying why aren't they happy that the government are running surpluses and giving grants for solar panels etc. That's the problem when a significant portion of the population feel unheard and forgotten about. They'll be heard at the ballot box.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,928 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    oh please you really want to discuss the prices of eggs in US which is even higher than under Biden now?


    Average 401k investment portfolio in US lost $8000 yesterday, they have to save themselves for retirement as there is no social safety net

    That’s about 16 years of 2eggs per day consumption per person at todays Walmart price

    a week earlier the auto tarrifs added on average $6500 per every car in US, more on the cheapest trucks made in Canada and Mexico, that’s 14 years of egg consumption

    The Americans are being urinated upon by Trump and his cabinet of billionaires and they just open their mouths wider praying for the great trickle down to intensify

    All while hundreds of thousands lose jobs in government and now private companies starting off mass layoffs as we seen with Stellantis yesterday



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 112 ✭✭Barry_Soweto


    Carry on putting your fingers in your ears and just telling everyone they're wrong for not being happy with the status quo.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,928 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    Unemployment, deep recession and no social safety net and now tarrifs is gonna make em really happy now

    Can you tell us how exactly Trumps nonsense which you clearly support will

    • lower price of eggs
    • Increase employment
    • Reduce inflation
    • Reduce cost of living and things like medicines

    I’m listening



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 112 ✭✭Barry_Soweto


    Look at the markets. Gas, oil, timber massively down. This will result in deflation, not inflation.

    Unemployment, no social safety net, not able to purchase medicines is literally the position tens of millions of Americans are in today anyways! Tariffs won't make their lives considerably worse.

    It's wild, these people who vote for Trump and support his policies literally tell you why they support them and you just choose to ignore them and treat them as if they're all living quality lives.

    The thing is though, once these tariffs are in and they stay in, I guarantee you the next Democrat won't lift them. Just like when Biden was complaining about tariffs on China. Did he lift them? Nope.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,928 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    Lol thought so completely clueless

    you do realise that the main supplier of oil, gas and lumber into US is Canada and these imports will now be tarrifed? And that’s before Canada retaliates

    You are looking at prices before tarriffs

    I predict, yours being a new account you will next state “not to worry US can import all that from Russia tariff free”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,643 ✭✭✭yagan


    Trump dropped the tariffs on potash when farmers from voter heartlands pointed out that 80% of potash used in the US is imported from Canada.

    Then Trump tells us we have to eat their clorinated chicken while the US is begging us for eggs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,970 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Unemployment has been at historical lows in the US in recent years.

    The current situation is significantly increasing the chance of a US recession (which was unthinkable last year) and also the possibility of global recessions. A recession is bad for employment.

    For reference the US grew 2.8% in 2024



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 112 ✭✭Barry_Soweto


    But you said tariffs are paid by the consumer. So if they're being imported by the US, why are their prices dropping on the markets?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,928 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    IMG_5773.jpeg

    53% chance of US recession up +34% since Trump walked into the whitehouse

    I am struggling to see how a recession would help the “common” man either with employment or prices

    We went from single digit probability under Biden and a booming economy with highest employment ever and sustained wage increases especially on the lower end… to this clown show

    And the best defence Trump supporters can come up with is “people are disgruntled, and you are out of touch”

    Yeh where have we heard that one before? Oh that’s right, Brexit



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,928 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    Tariffs are paid by the consumer, consumers who are cutting back on spending now as some can see the chances of a shitstorm hitting them increasing day by day

    commodities tank during recession as there are less buyers of said commodities because demand collapses

    Because people don’t have jobs and companies don’t have capital to buy commodities in a recession as they busy trying to stay afloat

    You still haven’t explained the 42D chess logic that will explain how these “disgruntled voters” will be better off while the economy burns down to the ground around them

    We seen this playbook before during Brexit, UK economy has now flatlined for 15 years and not only Brexit didn’t help it made things worse



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 112 ✭✭Barry_Soweto


    You're kinda missing the whole point of why people vote the way they do.

    People don't vote for others to be better off. They vote in their own interests.

    "I'm poor, I'm going to stay poor no matter what - I might aswell vote Trump and bring everyone else down."

    It's a bit like the young people of today in ireland wishing for another house price collapse. The home owners wouldn't like it but people who literally have no hope of ever owning their home anyways won't be negatively impacted by house prices crashing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,334 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    You think poor people don't vote to try and make it better for themselves only to stay where they are and to tear others down?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,928 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    So what you are trying to say


    Disgruntled voters want to stick it to the rich, by electing a clown who is a billionaire and picks a cabinet made of billionaires

    And then cheer while they burn down the economy around them and cost them their own employment, health and retirement/savings and the prospects for their own kids

    Yeh there’s a word for that, see my username



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,523 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    They were wrong and they have made things objectively much worse.

    Democracy means accepting the result of the voter's decision. It doesn't mean you can't say it was completely stupid.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 112 ✭✭Barry_Soweto


    Trump would get elected again tomorrow.

    Democrats have a 20% approval rating.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,523 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Trump would get elected again tomorrow.

    I seriously doubt it - he has record poor approval ratings - but it wouldn't make the decision any less self-defeatingly stupid if he was.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,928 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    Like I said it’s Brexit all over again, I need a Brexit bingo card

    We at the stage where Trump sympathisers tell us that “the people have spoken, and they want to be poorer”



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,644 ✭✭✭✭The_Kew_Tour


    In for bumpy ride. It's not going be pretty.

    If my mother tongue is shaking the foundations of your state, it probably means you built your state on my land.

    EVENFLOW



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