Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

There's a strong argument building for the EU not to retaliate for US tariffs and let the boycott of US products and service build. A message from consumers is far stronger than politicians

Will the EU be smart enough to see it and see how it plays out in the short term

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-30/anti-american-sentiment-rises-in-europe-as-trump-fuels-anger

It's a function of society. People know the value of a Euro. People have opinions.

If you're buying a home to live in that you can afford then prices going up, down or around makes no difference.

If kind of sentiment spread, it could grind the middle to higher end of the market to a halt, or at least impact it.

Arguably it already has. Irish property market is already at very low volume of trade. And increasing prices and debt levels for buyers means there will be less trading up in future, because high mortgage means more interest and less equity built up.

Quite a few mortgages being given out now that dont leave much scope for overpayments because the monthlies are so high, how could anyone afford to save a lot on top of repayments.

My response was in the context of a discussion with another poster.

But if we take it as a stand alone statement.

If you're buying a home that fits your needs and you can afford then prices going up down or around makes no financial difference.

If you're buying a property as an investment then price fluctuations are obviously important.

If you're buying a starter home to get on the ladderwith the intention of trading up (I'd argue this falls under investment) then as above price fluctuations are obviously important.

It’s genuinely not an exaggeration to say the market has been considered ‘frothy’ since 2018 or so. There was absolute pandemonium about how frothy it was in 2020. Everyone being told to ‘keep their powder dry etc.’ Go back and read the posts. Could literally copy and paste them today. Just sub brexit for trump.

If you were 35, young family in 2018 thinking of upsizing but worried about valuations…7 years have gone by. Your kids are nearly grown up. You’re too old for a mortgage and houses prices are up another 40%. If you can physically afford to buy and it’s right for your family. Not doing so due to waiting for a potential ‘crash’ is genuinely just an awful decision. It’s like trying to time the stock market. A fools game.

"Not doing so due to waiting for a potential ‘crash’ is genuinely just an awful decision. It’s like trying to time the stock market. A fools game."

It's also worth zooming out the graph…

This shows the average house prices in Ireland over the last few decades. The 2020s are not included, but we may presume that the average price will be higher. There may have been a dip in the 2010s, but the prices never even got close to what they were in the 90s. There may be a downwards turn in the market in the next decade, but the trend overall is upwards.

As a more general point, waiting to do something in life until the timing is perfect often means that the "something" will never get done. If you want something, or if you need it and you have the opportunity to take it, then take it. You only have so many years on the earth, and time is one commodity that you will never every get back.

People can have differing opinions on what constitutes value but I've never met anyone who doesn't have an opinion one way or the other.

The core ingredients suggest continued growth. Stopped clocks are right eventually but it isn't smart to just post this kind of thing.

I'm not offended- but you're not some Morgan Kelly by posting a picture with no argument behind it.

Seems as though your feelings have been hurt here more like, I merely made a remark on your “contribution”. What was it, This Time Is Different or Taleb’s Black Swan that made you such a critical thinker?

If the economy did take a big dive then there would be plenty of workers leaving the country which would reduce demand.

Tax take would be down so presumably would see a lot of government housing subsidies reduced further dampening demand/prices?

But equally even less houses would be built reducing supply.

Net impact though would be much less demand overall.

I personally don't think the impact will be that severe either.

It might be a slow bleed though. Only time will tell if we're at the top of prices or if this will be another Brexit/Covid scenario where it has no affect on house prices.

Prices will always be the limit of affordability, because some time back people realised they can take advantage of the zoning system to demand whatever price they like for development land.

As incomes increase, the amount of money people can pay for a house goes up. Even if build costs (ex land) remained static, land prices will go up to swallow the excess margin there.