Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

If there is any hint that he can achieve what he is planning the Republicans will be in power for the 21st century in America

Tarrifs are a weapon against waiting it out, those that move first and quickest have competitive advantage and ironically, European companies could be the big winners as ESG and energy crisis in Europe has give them a head start on locating operations to the US. Note the German Dax performance over the past 2 years

Note also from headlines over the last couple of days relating to the EU exploring retaliating by going after US tech

A perfect Storm?

It is certainly true that the value of money fron the govt's perspective has perhaps become a little diluted.

When you have an abundance of something, it is easy to take it's value for granted.

If the Coporation/Income Tax receipts were to take a huge hit, following the domino effect that unfolded from Tarrif increases into the US and subsequent job losses here, the govt would very quickly need to tighten it's belt.

I assume that the govt have already war gamed the outcomes, but the threat is very real.

Ballooning budgets for the HSE and uncapped rent subsidies for housing, the fact that once someone qualifies for HAP, they could be promoted into a 200k a year job and still receive the payment, are all completley unsustainable examples of our care-free govt spending policy.

The govt have gotten too used to living like a king in a diamond encrusted banquet hall, with a 7 day a week, all you can eat, michelin star buffet, permanently on the menu.

That menu is about to get downgraded, significantly.

What is perhaps most frustrating of all is the lack of tangible progress with the nations infrastructure and living standards.

Crime is high, the city is dirty, services are broken and understaffed, whilst animosity amongst sections of the population, towards other sections of the population, is at fever pitch.

When we look back at the golden years of tax take and jobs abound, it will remain an eternal headscratcher to try and understand how we were somehow able to regress as a society, at a time when we held all the levers of progress in our hands.

Same thing happened with the bike-to-work scheme. Prices rose to max out the available cash.

Tech transfers alone can take like 3-5 years. Setting up new plants and restructuring your global pipeline, and finding the necessary skilled workers? Probably a decade or more.

Plus then, due to reciprocal tariffs, a US pharma would be exporting into multiple markets slapping tariffs on their goods. The US is by far the most lucrative market for pharma, currently, but that maths ain't necessarily math-ing for a global MNC

Everything relating to housing is a circular dysfunctional doom loop. Every interference by government adds cost. Developers operate off a margin, the more the gov add costs, the monetary value of the margin increases

All the grants on top of that increase both the land and the margin. Easily the greatest way to burn taxpayer money.

Guaranteed that in any fall in tax revenue this scam will be protected at all costs

Agreed on both fronts. We’d probably end up more like a ‘normal’ country. Running a bit of a deficit. Instead of the luxury of setting up sovereign wealth funds.

Do have some concerns that our only real plays to generate more income will be higher taxes on lower paid workers & property taxes (both horrendously unpopular). We never rolled back the USC on higher paid so any further increases not realistic without decimating competitiveness.

And the main big fish for reducing expenditure meaningfully would be trimming an absolutely rampant health budget or the state pension (even more unpopular).

Going from ridiculous excess to tightening the belt buckles in short order would be painful.

Has the sovereign wealth fund gone live? Might be wise to delay, I've a feeling 2025 will be a repeat of 2022 as far as share prices are concerned

Harris needs to be removed from any diplomatic role, thought we dodged a bullet when Martin got Taoisech for 3 years, but putting Harris in Foreign affairs is a major own goal. Hide him away in education or social welfare

It’s not that they’re is no cycle or never a drop. It’s just it’s exceedingly rare. House prices have dropped in nominal terms less than 10 years out of the last 100.

Sure it’ll drop again at some point. It just probably won’t be this year or next. If you bet house prices will drop. You’ll be wrong far more often than you’re right. That’s just the statistical reality.

And yes there’ll always be plenty of oeople strongly saying this year is definitely different. Brexit, COVID, interest rates, cost of living, trump.

Its quite evident that this time the risks are much different than anything Ireland has faced before. Whilst house prices don't fall often, when they do they usually fall of a cliff.

As always it just comes down to whether you're a Bear or a Bull. Brexit, covid & Trump.

So far the Bulls have been right. Will Trump be 3rd time lucky for the Bears? Nobody knows.