Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

The rent subsidies will be prioritised to keep a roof over peoples head.

Rent top ups are the last thing the govt will cut.

Outside of an economic crash or a huge increase in govt owned housing construction, its very difficult to see govt rent subsidies doing anything other than continuing to rise.

2011 was a pretty exceptional time, though. The economy was in the sh***r. What I would do is compare 2016-18 prices with now to get a more realistic indication of inflation.

We are currently considering going to market to sell to see if we could buy a larger home in Dublin. We bought our modest 3 bed semi in Dublin (now with an attic conversion) for sub 300k and sussing around recent ones that sold beside us, we would be looking at around 500k selling price now without too much hassle. We also put a 20% deposit down at the time of buying so our mortgage amount isn’t very high so likely would have a fair chunk of equity if we sold to move up the ladder.
however the stark reality for us to move to anything bigger in Dublin would incur such a large jump in property cost and a larger mortgage, we are really on fence whether we just stay put and count our chickens we are quite fortunate compared to first time buyers now.

Having witnessed asking price vs actual sale agreed price - I don’t think I’m quite ready emotionally to be dealing with disappointment after disappointment when it comes to bidding again.

You are wrong. You can rent for 90 days in a year without planning permission and to be vacant it has to have nobody occupy it for 30 days within a year. That includes RPZ areas. Just not more than 15 days consecutively

I am sure there are many people breaking rules both landlords and tenants.

You may need to do some more research on the matter, a quick 2 min Google proves your point invalid.

https://www.dublincity.ie/residential/planning/planning-applications/planning-enforcement/short-term-lettings

Where the house or apartment is not a ‘principal private residence’ (i.e. where it is not ordinarily lived in by the owner or leased as a long-term residential accommodation), the 90 day exemption does not apply and change of use planning permission will be required for all short-term letting.

https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/housing/owning-a-home/home-owners/renting-your-property-for-shortterm-lets/#:~:text=Note%3A%20If%20you%20own%20an,permission%20from%20your%20local%20authority.

If you are renting out a property, or a room in your property for short-term lets, you may have to apply to your local authority for planning permission to change the use of the property, so it can be used for tourism and short-term letting purposes.

This requirement for planning permission only applies to homeowners in Rent Pressure Zones (RPZs) who:

• Let out their entire home (principal private residence) for short-term lets of more than 90 days in total while they are away. (Your principal private residence is the place where you ordinarily live).
• Let out a second property for short-term lets.

I'm a single buyer and I got 20% deposit. My misses is not from Ireland so is not yet qualified for a mortgage. I can't really get anything suitable for 2 of us with 10% deposit.

I think in the current market, a house needs to have some sort of problem to receive absolutely no offers. The only example of this that I can think of personally is that of my aunt, who is trying to sell a derelict house in west Clare. It needs serious work that would cost far more than the asking price, and it's been on the market for nearly three years.

I do check the registry myself from time to time. Quite ordinary houses are selling for well over the asking price in Dublin even still, with very nice or large houses often going well over the asking.

As rent caps get loosened or removed in next year or two, house prices are going to skyrocket again because rents too will shoot up due to undersupply.

We are about to hit a very scary feedback loop of low rental supply → higher yields → higher property prices → lower homeownership → low rental supply

Prices have only one way to go and it is not down

We're at an interesting point in history where the advice of older generations on a great many things is not simply worthless, but out rightly harmful if heeded.

I feel in Cork like 2023 was where there was sneaky value. The rate rises spooked people as it was hard to know bidding in H1 23 where int rates would be by drawdown. Once it was clear by end pf 2023 rates were only coming down I felt market just flew up again. Seismic jump in prices.

A very good US podcast on tariffs, I lost count on how many times Ireland was mentioned with regard to tax and trade distortions

Its long and detailed but you get a good picture of what's going on in Ireland if you listen from 44 mins in to 1 hour. All these distortions will most likely be targeted by Washington

https://doublepod.page.link/RgBiLKtCB2W1D55y6

He has recent interviews with Philip Lane Irish rep on Ecb and seperatley Patrick Honohan put in charge of the Irish Central Bank to clean up the the mess from our last property bubble. Worth a listen

Bare in mind our national debt is massive per head of population but heavily disguised when measured against GDP hence our relatively low interest rates. We got bonds off at around 2% in March. Washington targeting our MNC could be highly detrimental to our Gdp

anyone predicts house price correction due to new tariffs and recession fears?

in the market to buy but prices for second hand houses in Dublin are going 100k over last year price.. is it best to wait for another 3-4 months or buy now .

Even if there was a price correction, if you buy now and intend to stay in the property for at least 5 to 10 years, the price will recover in that time period. And that's assuming that there will be a price correction.

God only knows how any of this will play out but I wouldnt be hanging around.

People have been talking about a dip/easing off literally the last 10 years and there's still no sign of it happening.

The price crash in 2008/9/10 was the worst thing the property market has ever seen in this country, and it recovered within 10 years.

People were worried/excited about what Covid was going to to the property market, and it ended up being a slight dip followed by more rampant increases.

I'm very risk averse as a person in general, and I would have no hesitation in advising a family member to buy now instead of waiting a year or so.