Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

In any sane world, shouldn't a temporary ceasefire be the first step, followed by negotiations.

It beggars belief that Russia are asking for sanctions lifted before making any sort of gesture themselves.

putler didn't even wait one week.

A Ukrainian port was bombed last night.

It is because Russia, for all its faults, has a simple, robust diplomatic strategy: ask for 200% from the opponent even if you are losing. Find a weak spot and push in, expanding your demands if any concessions are given. This strategy haven't started with Putin either. So you start with a demand to get all of Ukraine, a weak negotiator then says — no, no, you cannot have all of Ukraine, how about just the Crimea? Ok, say Russians, we agree to take Crimea, thanks, that's out of the negotiation now, it is ours. So what else will you give us? How about you lift all sanctions and then we agree to talk further? And then you continue to extract concessions while giving nothing substantial in return. When all possible concessions are extracted, you say — that was great, now we have all of these points in our favour, why do we need to negotiate further? And so on and so on.

The real counterbalance for this strategy is the firm adherence to principles as described in The Long Telegram [original], from George Kennan in Moscow to the Secretary of State, February 22, 1946. | National Security Archive . Quote: "

… although the Soviet Union was “impervious to logic of reason,” it was “highly sensitive to logic of force.” Therefore, it would back down “when strong resistance is encountered at any point.” The United States and its allies, he concluded, would have to offer that resistance.

The Russian strategy is so primitive, but it works because Trump has several huge weak spots that Russian mercilessly exploit. The main weak spot is that he has no backbone based on any moral principles. If it was only about the USA and Trump, that would be even somewhat funny.

How much humiliation by Putin will Trump take day after day

I haven't posted on this thread for a long time.

I did post well over a year ago that I thought some sort of negotiations were inevitable and that nothing could be ruled out.

I also stated that the then US administration was not backing Ukraine enough to win this war, and should therefore try and encourage negotiations, I had quite some push back for saying that with some actually accusing me of being pro Putin for merely suggesting this, which is funny considering my posts on this thread up to then.

Now fast forward to now and the complete mess that has come with Trump and the new American administration, it is clear to me now that Ukraine is in a far worse position, and they are looking like being completely betrayed by the US.

Trump only cares about one thing, and that is what he can gain out of the current situation. He wants to be seen to be the peace maker, if he screws over Europe in the process that will only be a bonus for him and his pack of clowns in government.

I have very little faith in Europe doing what is needed to back Ukraine if the US pulls support for them. Plenty of grand standing and words from them but they won't have the bottle to put anything into action.

I thought the air support umbrella idea over Western parts of Ukraine sounded like a great proposal but again they won't do this without US support so it is mute again.

I have to say that I have never felt as pessimistic about Ukraine's chances than I do right now. They will probably be forced into a very unfavorable peace deal from the US which will leave them in a very precarious position in the future. My only hope is I am wrong about Europe and we do what it takes to back Ukraine if and when the US abandons them.

4 missing U.S. soldiers who were stationed in Lithuania have just turned up dead!!

Seemingly they went missing while out driving a military vehicle…

Europe is waiting for the war to start, except the war is already started!!

Edit to update with some more details.

U.S. forces were on a NATO exercise to the north of Vilnius about 10km from the border with Belarus when they and their tank(?) went missing yesterday. And apparently today a scene has been discovered, with local media reporting the soldiers as being deceased.

https://www.rferl.org/a/us-soldiers-missing-lithuania-belarus/33360885.html

https://abcnews.go.com/International/4-us-army-soldiers-reported-missing-scheduled-tactical/story?id=120175460

Another piece moved on the chess board?

They will probably be forced into a very unfavorable peace deal from the US which will leave them in a very precarious position in the future. 

Zelensky will only sign a deal if it incorporates a proper security guarantee. If it doesn't the deal is worthless and Ukraine may as well fight on without US support, or surrender unconditionally to Russia, whichever seems marginally less catastrophic.

No, you are wrong. Ukraine is not in a worse position now than it was last year. In the last year it took and held some territory in Kursk, making Russians lose even more soldiers than would happen otherwise. Politically it was a huge blow to Putin. Sure, Russia took a few settlements, but lost something like 100k dead and another 300k wounded. Russian economy is in tatters. Ukraine leads in drone deployment. And so on. Can Ukraine liberate all territories soon? No. Can it break Russia's ability to fight? Definitely. If only the orange muppet didn't suck up to Putin so much.

Can Ukraine liberate all territories soon? No. Can it break Russia's ability to fight? Definitely.

Possibly but can it do this if american military support is slashed or withdrawn entirely?

Putin probably asked Trump to find a way to withdraw US troops from Baltics so he can take em over

Sure can you even find Lithuania on the map Donnie?

It will be difficult. When the current military assistance package expires, Trump will not allow another. Europe will replace something, and hopefully the USA continues to give/sell the intelligence data. So many things may happen in the next six months that is difficult to make any predictions. But what's certain is that Russia's position is not good either. Putin desperately wants a sanctions relief, especially to sell oil, as Russia runs a huge budget deficit. No money to pay contract soldiers = collapse of Russian military.

No money to pay contract soldiers = collapse of Russian military.

This doesn't look to me to be any way imminent. A dictatorship will always be willing to sacrifice everything else to keep the military show on the road

Sit back and watch Trump put the blame on the EU.