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Also; death of a propagandist. Died in Russia which is worth emphasising -
In any sane world, shouldn't a temporary ceasefire be the first step, followed by negotiations.
It beggars belief that Russia are asking for sanctions lifted before making any sort of gesture themselves.
Good riddance, let's hope many more orc propagandists will be fed into the chipper.
putler didn't even wait one week.
A Ukrainian port was bombed last night.
Be careful what you wish for. Europe is a long long way away from rearming. As with a lot of things the EU does they is a lot of talk and limited action. Why? Because no one really wants to pay for it.
It is because Russia, for all its faults, has a simple, robust diplomatic strategy: ask for 200% from the opponent even if you are losing. Find a weak spot and push in, expanding your demands if any concessions are given. This strategy haven't started with Putin either. So you start with a demand to get all of Ukraine, a weak negotiator then says — no, no, you cannot have all of Ukraine, how about just the Crimea? Ok, say Russians, we agree to take Crimea, thanks, that's out of the negotiation now, it is ours. So what else will you give us? How about you lift all sanctions and then we agree to talk further? And then you continue to extract concessions while giving nothing substantial in return. When all possible concessions are extracted, you say — that was great, now we have all of these points in our favour, why do we need to negotiate further? And so on and so on.
The real counterbalance for this strategy is the firm adherence to principles as described in The Long Telegram [original], from George Kennan in Moscow to the Secretary of State, February 22, 1946. | National Security Archive . Quote: "
… although the Soviet Union was “impervious to logic of reason,” it was “highly sensitive to logic of force.” Therefore, it would back down “when strong resistance is encountered at any point.” The United States and its allies, he concluded, would have to offer that resistance.
The Russian strategy is so primitive, but it works because Trump has several huge weak spots that Russian mercilessly exploit. The main weak spot is that he has no backbone based on any moral principles. If it was only about the USA and Trump, that would be even somewhat funny.
The only pre-condition for peace talks should be the complete withdrawal of orc forces from all sovereign Ukrainian territory.
How much humiliation by Putin will Trump take day after day
I might be wrong and maybe things are worse for Ukraine than I believe and, as such, a conditional surrender that lets Russia keep the ground it's paid such a high price for (in terms of materiel and human lives) in the short to medium term might be the best they can hope for in the absence of US military assistance.
I believe this is indeed the best Ukraine can hope for for the foreseeable but IMO if Zelensky is willing to settle for this Trump will ultimately be persuaded to backstop the security guarantee that holds this settlement in place…
I haven't posted on this thread for a long time.
I did post well over a year ago that I thought some sort of negotiations were inevitable and that nothing could be ruled out.
I also stated that the then US administration was not backing Ukraine enough to win this war, and should therefore try and encourage negotiations, I had quite some push back for saying that with some actually accusing me of being pro Putin for merely suggesting this, which is funny considering my posts on this thread up to then.
Now fast forward to now and the complete mess that has come with Trump and the new American administration, it is clear to me now that Ukraine is in a far worse position, and they are looking like being completely betrayed by the US.
Trump only cares about one thing, and that is what he can gain out of the current situation. He wants to be seen to be the peace maker, if he screws over Europe in the process that will only be a bonus for him and his pack of clowns in government.
I have very little faith in Europe doing what is needed to back Ukraine if the US pulls support for them. Plenty of grand standing and words from them but they won't have the bottle to put anything into action.
I thought the air support umbrella idea over Western parts of Ukraine sounded like a great proposal but again they won't do this without US support so it is mute again.
I have to say that I have never felt as pessimistic about Ukraine's chances than I do right now. They will probably be forced into a very unfavorable peace deal from the US which will leave them in a very precarious position in the future. My only hope is I am wrong about Europe and we do what it takes to back Ukraine if and when the US abandons them.
I don't see how that works either. How can anyone take Trump's assurance of anything?
4 missing U.S. soldiers who were stationed in Lithuania have just turned up dead!!
Seemingly they went missing while out driving a military vehicle…
Europe is waiting for the war to start, except the war is already started!!
Edit to update with some more details.
U.S. forces were on a NATO exercise to the north of Vilnius about 10km from the border with Belarus when they and their tank(?) went missing yesterday. And apparently today a scene has been discovered, with local media reporting the soldiers as being deceased.
https://www.rferl.org/a/us-soldiers-missing-lithuania-belarus/33360885.html
https://abcnews.go.com/International/4-us-army-soldiers-reported-missing-scheduled-tactical/story?id=120175460
Another piece moved on the chess board?
Did they vote democrat tho? That’s what matters
”In which case they deserve it” - MAGA yokels
They will probably be forced into a very unfavorable peace deal from the US which will leave them in a very precarious position in the future.
Zelensky will only sign a deal if it incorporates a proper security guarantee. If it doesn't the deal is worthless and Ukraine may as well fight on without US support, or surrender unconditionally to Russia, whichever seems marginally less catastrophic.
well that’s the signal story dead then ?
Remind me what Trump thinks of soldiers? He doesn't have a high opinion of them, no secret in fact. MAGA still loves him.
Their death will be blamed on diversity or Biden.
No, you are wrong. Ukraine is not in a worse position now than it was last year. In the last year it took and held some territory in Kursk, making Russians lose even more soldiers than would happen otherwise. Politically it was a huge blow to Putin. Sure, Russia took a few settlements, but lost something like 100k dead and another 300k wounded. Russian economy is in tatters. Ukraine leads in drone deployment. And so on. Can Ukraine liberate all territories soon? No. Can it break Russia's ability to fight? Definitely. If only the orange muppet didn't suck up to Putin so much.
He doesn’t think much of soldiers especially if they are not a shade of orange
Sure didn’t general bone spurs call em “losers” ?
and he is correct, they are losers
They don’t uphold their oaths to defend the constitution against enemies foreign ✅ and domestic ☑️ like inhabit the White House now
Can Ukraine liberate all territories soon? No. Can it break Russia's ability to fight? Definitely.
Possibly but can it do this if american military support is slashed or withdrawn entirely?
"Were they D.E.I. hires?"- MAGA
Putin probably asked Trump to find a way to withdraw US troops from Baltics so he can take em over
Sure can you even find Lithuania on the map Donnie?
saw a few comments on BlueSky saying they allegedly accidentally drove their tracked vehicle into a swamp and drowned!!
So possibly a terribly tragic accident….. although certain players in the conflict are good at making accidents happen!!
It will be difficult. When the current military assistance package expires, Trump will not allow another. Europe will replace something, and hopefully the USA continues to give/sell the intelligence data. So many things may happen in the next six months that is difficult to make any predictions. But what's certain is that Russia's position is not good either. Putin desperately wants a sanctions relief, especially to sell oil, as Russia runs a huge budget deficit. No money to pay contract soldiers = collapse of Russian military.
Well two points, if European countries will donate US equipment and spares to keep the Ukrainians going it will be significant. Also if the US will allow European countries to purchase US materiel and pass it on?
No money to pay contract soldiers = collapse of Russian military.
This doesn't look to me to be any way imminent. A dictatorship will always be willing to sacrifice everything else to keep the military show on the road
You might want to read up on Russian history
The collapsed twice in 70 years under similar circumstances each time coming out the other side smaller and weaker
Sit back and watch Trump put the blame on the EU.
Putin has no problem selling crude oil to India who launder it by selling it on as refined oil.
Where Putin's is struggling is in not being able to replenish what Ukraine is destroying in both armour and experienced personal.
"It only ever escalates when they start talking. When the word ceasefire gets thrown around, it's like we anticipate more swarms of drones, in terms of the Long Range drones, hitting [Ukrainian] cities, and we do the same to them. We smash their oil production facilities and anything we can to hinder their war machine.""Any sort of bullshit peace settlement, we know it's not going to be lasting. Russia is not the kind to just roll over and accept some sort of half-arsed victory. They need all or nothing. Their entire existence is based upon their victory in World War Two. I've seen it inside Russia. I've been to a Russian school. The entire school was like a museum for the Second World War. Their entire belief as a people is victory at all costs."
"It only ever escalates when they start talking. When the word ceasefire gets thrown around, it's like we anticipate more swarms of drones, in terms of the Long Range drones, hitting [Ukrainian] cities, and we do the same to them. We smash their oil production facilities and anything we can to hinder their war machine."
"Any sort of bullshit peace settlement, we know it's not going to be lasting. Russia is not the kind to just roll over and accept some sort of half-arsed victory. They need all or nothing. Their entire existence is based upon their victory in World War Two. I've seen it inside Russia. I've been to a Russian school. The entire school was like a museum for the Second World War. Their entire belief as a people is victory at all costs."
That's from a Kiwi fighting in Ukraine. The troops know the score.
