Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

hometruths · 13-03-2025 11:18AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123260042#Comment_123260042

If you think the government telling somebody what to do with property they own is the same as somebody that owes money to a private bank not paying it back you have a twisted sense of reality.

I'm not equating the actions of leaving a property vacant with defaulting on mortgage. I am equating the public and hence political attitude to both problems.

In both cases there is a fairly widespread public misunderstanding or denial of the scale and impact of the problem, which has directly led to the government's reluctance to take the necessary measures to solve the problem. They won't do it because it has negative political consequences, given the lack of public support.

You don't even realise the number of vacant properties is less than it normally is and vastly less than before as a percentage. They don't even have accurate figures with no way to get that data at present

This is absolute nonsense and exactly the kind of misunderstanding I am referring to above.

timmyntc · 13-03-2025 11:26AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123260042#Comment_123260042

You don't even realise the number of vacant properties is less than it normally is and vastly less than before as a percentage.

They don't even have accurate figures with no way to get that data at present

😁 Literally contradicting your own posts. Trust the data you claim to know but won't post here - and in the same breath "the data is wrong" they haven't a clue 😂😂

RichardAnd · 13-03-2025 11:35AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123258986#Comment_123258986

Genuine question. Does anyone actually know of a house that was repossessed due to non-payment of a mortgage? I know a few people who ceased paying their mortgage for a time or in perpetuity, and none of them lost their homes.

hometruths · 13-03-2025 11:53AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123260454#Comment_123260454

I also know a few people who stopped paying the mortgage for a few years, still in the houses now and making periodic payments, none of them seem to be under any real threat of losing the house.

The only one I know of who actually had the house repoed managed to keep living in it for over 12 years without a single mortgage payment.

All of the cases I know of personally are significantly above average value properties, and I suspect that the problem across the board is heavily weighted to very high value properties bought in 05-07.

Ray Palmer · 13-03-2025 12:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123260399#Comment_123260399

You are delusional. Using the figures we have vacant property is 8% it was 16% around 2007. The figures aren't even accurate because of how it is collected. That is you misunderstanding not the public. The other thing you keep on doing is adding derelict property to the vacant property. The other thing is where is the vacant property? Is i9t where people want to live and work? Apparently it is mostly rural properties

What have I misunderstood about vacant property? You weren't event aware a vacant property tax existed already nor how it is defined. LPT is at around 75% collection so what is your vacant tax collection going to be like?Delusinal

Ray Palmer · 13-03-2025 12:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123260428#Comment_123260428

Not a very bright comment. They are the figures we have and they are also inaccurate but they are the only gauge we have. It isn't a contradiction

hometruths · 13-03-2025 12:54PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123260630#Comment_123260630

Using the figures we have vacant property is 8% it was 16% around 2007.

Bravo! We have crisis levels of stock for sale or rent, a supposed deficit of 250k in built stock, and a vacancy rate of 8% which is great, less than you would expect it to be because it is half of the 2007 16% figure!

And then you ask "What have I misunderstood about vacant property?"

You couldn't make it up. This is a pointless argument.

The Student · 13-03-2025 02:33PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123260454#Comment_123260454

Never heard of one being repossessed. A good indication would be the details of non performing mortgages. Would be safe to assume it is a bigger issue than being reported. How many loan books have the major banks sold to other funds?

Why would a bank sell performing loans?

Ray Palmer · 13-03-2025 03:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123260697#Comment_123260697

I really have to ask when you started looking at property prices and the market in general? You seem to have so little historical understanding. Any idea what it averages out at or what the normal rate for vacancy rates is in Ireland or other countries in Europe?

We have more property per person now than we did 70s-2000s. We have a very low occupancy rate which keeps going down which is a much bigger issue. Dublin is circled by housing that is way under occupied with people born in 40s-60s living on their own in family homes. The road I grew up has 10 houses that used to have 65 people living in them now it is 12. Where i live now is very similar with most properties only with 1-2 residents but they are large 3 bed houses with the odd 5 bed. There is a vacant property on the road because somebody died about 8 months ago ( which some people here said should have a punitive tax) but probate will take about another year. As there are 2 children they can inherit the property they won't have inheritance tax but if only one child they would have inheritance tax.

Why you are fixated on vacant property is just strange. Encouraging downsizing and keeping people within their communities makes much more sense.

You didn't explain what I misunderstand about vacant properties you just tried to shout me down by being excited when I told you a figure you never bothered to look up or try to understand. Occupancy rates are far bigger an issue but will natural resolve over 10 or so more years. Old family homes will start getting divided up as people won't be able to afford a whole house

timmyntc · 13-03-2025 04:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123261273#Comment_123261273

2007 was peak tiger and notorious for overbuilding houses with no actual demand for them so that people could borrow against them and build even more. The vacancy rate was huge then because of that mental behaviour.

That we are half the peak tiger rate of vacancy does not mean we are good. That's the point

Ray Palmer · 13-03-2025 04:22PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123261342#Comment_123261342

I just used that year from memory but go look yourself. Vacant properties are normal at about 10%. Look up what it has been over the decades and you will see it is below normal. The properties per person has gone up dramatically since the 70s and occupancy rate has gone down. Vacant properties are not the big issue. It was 16% before 2007 too and after so your point about 2007 just disappears

hometruths · 13-03-2025 04:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123261273#Comment_123261273

Any idea what it averages out at or what the normal rate for vacancy rates is in Ireland or other countries in Europe?

It is generally accepted by housing economists and academics that a normal vacancy rate in a functioning property market with a good balance of supply and demand is between 5 and 6%.

Under 5% would normally indicate a market in undersupply. Over 6% would normally indicate a market in oversupply.

8% in an undersupplied market is insane.

You didn't explain what I misunderstand about vacant properties

I focussed on your misunderstanding of the wisdom in comparing the 8% vacancy rate to 16% in 2007.

I ignored the other points because it was like a bingo check list of the most common myths and misunderstandings about vacancy. But here you go:

Vacancy is lower than we would expect compared to historical norms. Tick.
The data is inaccurate. Tick.
The vacancy numbers are being skewed by derelicts. Tick.
Vacancy is low in areas where people want to work and live. Tick.
Vacancy is mostly rural properties. Tick.

Ray Palmer · 13-03-2025 04:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123261390#Comment_123261390

You claim I misunderstand things with your stupid ticks but these are facts you just want to ignore. Are you saying the data is accurate? That derelict properties and vacant properties are the same thing?

I don't know why you are claiming these are myths and misunderstandings. I'd like to see these reports of 5-6% meaning functional property market and then compare within Europe. By that standard Ireland has never ever had a functioning property market. Now you wouldn't be stupid enough to be quoting an optimal market figure as opposed to a functioning market because the market functions. Vacant properties is by no means the biggest issue or close to the top.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2022/08/10/irish-vacant-property-rates-are-low-report-finds/

hometruths · 13-03-2025 04:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123261373#Comment_123261373

That's nonsense as well.

Excluding holiday homes:

7.7% in 1991.
6.3% in 1996
7.7% in 2002

https://www.esri.ie/system/files/media/file-uploads/2015-07/QEC2005Spr_SA_Fitz%20Gerald.pdf

Ray Palmer · 13-03-2025 05:10PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123261454#Comment_123261454

And here is another report over a longer period which confirms my claims. Maybe it is like people cherry picking from poor data sets.

https://www.finfacts-blog.com/2021/02/key-irish-housing-statistics-1971-2020.html

hometruths · 13-03-2025 05:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123261441#Comment_123261441

I assuming you haven't read that article and just latched onto the headline? It certainly does not support your view: "Vacant properties are normal at about 10%."

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123261504#Comment_123261504

There also nothing in that that confirms your claims, as far as I can see. Perhaps you could clarify instead of the just the link dump?

Edit to add: I think I have just spotted what you're cherrypicking from that poor data set. The author's point:

5) In the past 50 years the rate of vacant houses excluding holiday homes has been about 10% of the stock. There could be an opportunity to raise taxes here?;

Is this what you think confirms your claim that a 10% vacancy rate should be considered normal? And thus 8% is evidence of a housing shortage?!

If you look at the data it appears that he's rounding up to 10% to make a point, even going as far as rounding up by about 4% in 1996.

And amusingly, what point do you think he is trying to make?! That there could be an opportunity to raise taxes here?

hometruths · 14-03-2025 10:02AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123261038#Comment_123261038

In terms of reporting in fairness the Central Bank do regularly publish the latest data on arrears.

The media tend to ignore it, and if they do report it, it tends to put a positive spin on the issue, along the lines of: "Mortgages in Arrears over 1 year are at lowest level since 2011"

There is never any mention of the fact it is still at an extraordinarily high level.

The reason long term arrears numbers are falling is because restructuring deals are increasing - interest only, split mortgage, debt write off etc. This obviously kicks the can down the road for the mortgage holder which is great for them, but it does nothing to solve the problem of the restricted supply in the market.

https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/mortgage-arrears

Blut2 · 14-03-2025 12:44PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123257429#Comment_123257429

I said VPT was cheap, and quick, as far as housing measures go. I never said "free". Absolutely no moving of goal posts on my end. But I'll take that as an admission of yours that it is actually cheap and quick, since you can't put a supposedly prohibitively large price on it that you initially claimed to be an expert with experience to know.

When you make a claim of dubious veracity that "county councils own the majority of vacant properties in the state" then you should expect to be asked for a source. If you can't provide it, then its quite obvious you have no idea what you're talking about and are just basing your opinion on vibes.

You can absolutely increase funding to local councils from the general tax purse, which in turn would be receiving funding from a VPT. Its really not difficult.

I could reply with an anecotal "I'm experienced expert in the area" as you did, but I'll give you an actually verifiable reason for why VPT is coming - there have been multiple articles in the media about VPTs, and polls done, in the past two weeks alone. Our media is extremely government influenced, so when a new legislative idea starts to get pushed across multiple platforms its almost always for a reason.

The idea that during the worst housing crisis in the history of the Irish state, when we have 5,000 homeless children tonight, introducing a VPT to encourage just a fraction of the 168,000 vacant properties in the state into actual use as very well paid for housing is "like a dictatorship" is an interesting combination of morally bankrupt, financially inept and historically very unaware.

And a very easy definition of vacant have been outlined to you in this very thread - its really not rocket science. ie any home vacant for 24 or more of the last 36 months (if you want to be very generous to landlords) to get around people moving in for 30 days or other short stays, and to allow for probate/sales, thats not a PPR, and thats owner isn't in a nursing home.

hometruths · 14-03-2025 04:21PM

More on Mortgage arrears, Central Bank published an interesting analysis in 2022…

In 2020 and 2021 more than half of mortgage holders in long term arrears (over 1 year) - paid absolutely nothing on their mortgage. That's nearly 15,000 people living for free.

Another 7,800 paid somewhere between zero and 50% of their contracted mortgage payments. And a similiar number paid somewhere between 50% and 100%.

Unsurprisingly the longer you are in arrears the more likely you are to be paying zero. Over 10,000 of the people paying nothing are over 5 years in arrears. 4,000 of these people are over 10 years in arrears.

Collectively these mortgage holders owe €4.5 billion in outstanding capital.

Quite astonishing figures.

https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/statistical-publications/behind-the-data/Understanding-Repayment-Amounts

philcoll123 · 14-03-2025 04:43PM

I apologise if this question has previously been asked, but is it the case that both applicants on a joint application must have been tax compliant for the four years prior to submitting an application for the Help to Buy Scheme? One of us only returned to work less than 3 years ago so unsure if that stops us from getting this scheme.

hometruths · 15-03-2025 10:44AM

A proper vacancy tax is also urgently needed to sort out the Airbnb and STL problem. It's madness that this has been allowed to go on so long.

The optimist in me is hopeful that the silver lining from the 40k houses in 2024 fallout, and threat of declining build numbers again this year will be to sort out the vacancy/STL problem once and for all.

One couple who are described as private hosts have 189 live listings, according to data obtained by Threshold from Inside Airbnb, which monitors the popular letting and homestays website.
A private individual host had 92 live listings, the analysis also showed.

Dublin has the highest number of hosts who have at least two full properties for short-term lets – with 856 hosts advertising 2,287 properties. Cork is the second highest county where this is the case, with 312 hosts advertising 616 properties.
In Galway, 292 hosts were advertising 1,009 properties across the city and county.

It's the STL hosts with multiple properties that would be most affected by a stiff vacancy tax, not councils, or bottle collections, or nursing home residents etc etc.

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/housing-planning/2025/03/14/nine-times-as-many-irish-properties-on-airbnb-as-in-long-term-rental-charity-says/

15-03-2025 12:03PM

Is 20% now the new 10% deposit as properties are going over asking.

PommieBast · 15-03-2025 07:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123266291#Comment_123266291

I doubt it will make any difference. AirBNB and STLs are supposed to be de-facto illegal due to lack of planning permission but enforcement of that is non-existant.

hometruths · 16-03-2025 10:03AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123267973#Comment_123267973

Yes, for sure, that's what I mean by a "proper" vacancy tax, one that solves the current STL enforcement issues. No doubt it can be done if the political will to do it exists.

timmyntc · 19-03-2025 07:25AM

https://www.thejournal.ie/central-bank-housing-completions-41000-target-to-be-missed-by-6000-6652864-Mar2025/

Only march and we are already off track for governments housing targets again.

I feel sorry for anyone who doesn't already own a house - prices are going to keep rising for a long long time. Unless Donald Trump's tariffs cripple us economically, there really is no end in sight to house prices rises

RichardAnd · 19-03-2025 10:05AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123277489#Comment_123277489

Regarding the Trump-tariffs, buy the dip because nothing ever happens.

PommieBast · 19-03-2025 02:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123269307#Comment_123269307

I've long given up on such political will ever turning up.

hometruths · 20-03-2025 07:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123277803#Comment_123277803

I suspect if Trump is hell bent on retrieving some of our tax take, he'll do it without too much trouble. The question is whether he is full of bluster or not.

I think the main impact on property would be less money for the government to continue the current level of subsidies - they can throw money at the problem as long as the corporate tax boom continues. If it doesn't, then they'll have to choose whether to cut housing spend, or cut spending elsewhere

spockety · 20-03-2025 08:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123282429#Comment_123282429

There's slightly more to it than that though. Government spending is on goods, services, and labour in the Irish market. If that drops, it will have an impact on many companies, which will in turn result in job losses, which will in turn result in less money in the wider economy etc. You can't take billions out of a tax take and assume the impact would be isolated to housing subsidies with no knock on.

hometruths · 20-03-2025 08:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123282557#Comment_123282557

Yep hence the hard choices, they'll have to cut spending, but where?

When tax take is booming in a housing crisis, easy to justify the spent on rent and purchase subsidies, as plenty of money for other things.

Not so easy to justify if it means cuts in other crucial areas.

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting