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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,947 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    How much are you suggesting this introduction would cost? You are claiming it can be done virtually instantly and at no cost.

    When I teased this out it turned out there is a lot of legislation that would need to be changed starting with a new definition of vacant and a completely new way to track such property that at best would be self reporting. If the tax was so punitive there would be many ways around it making it pretty useless.

    Just because a tax would only directly affect certain people does not mean that the public would agree with the idea.

    Then there is the biggest issue would be the councils would be most affected meaning less services for people in the community who would find it bizarre that the government would be give a punitive tax to councils without thinking about it. They wanted to bring in a tax on parking provided by employers but scrapped that as public servants would be affected the most.

    You are absolutely dreaming if you think it would be cheap, instant and workable. It would take about a year just to rewrite the legislation before even being reviewed and proposed. How much would that cost to do? What do you think the normal rate is of vacant property?

    You really don't sound like you know what you are talking about and just think because you think it can be done quickly and for free that makes it so. I have worked on legislation before around taxes and entitlements and it is not quick and very expensive.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,660 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Then there is the biggest issue would be the councils would be most affected meaning less services for people in the community who would find it bizarre that the government would be give a punitive tax to councils without thinking about it.

    Biggest issue?! Less services?!

    That's the biggest straw you've clutched at yet!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,289 ✭✭✭Blut2


    If you're so certain, and experienced in the matter, that introducing such legislation would be prohibitively expensive do tell us an approximate costing to do so?

    Because the cost of writing, and introducing, similar legislation is absolute peanuts as far as I'm aware when it comes to measures that we've introduced to impact the housing crisis. The state spent an estimated €8bn on measures related to solving the housing crisis only last year in total, lots of which had very marginal effects (if any) at significant cost.

    Unless writing and introducing the leglisation would cost in the high hundreds of millions of euros (which is rather doubtful) per year its likely to have a very positive rate of return for its cost. The proven very large number of vacant properties in the state would give the measure the capability to boost yearly housing numbers considerably.

    Councils wouldn't be negatively impacted in the slightest. How exactly do you think increased localised government revenue, and increased utilization of local housing, would negatively impact councils?

    The recent myhome study would suggest 88% of people at least are in favour of measures to force vacant properties back to the market. So, that combined with the fact that only 122,000 people in the state own two homes or more (and and even smaller number own vacant properties), would mean all our current evidence would suggest a majority of the public very much would agree with the idea. Unless you have any actual data points to contradict this, instead of your own speculation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,947 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    You are making the claim it is easy and cheap so you have to prove it. It will cost a couple of million easily and at least a year to get it even proposed. Neither is cheap or easy but you are moving the goal posts to say once hundreds of millions

    The survey did not indicate it was a punitive tax people wanted on vacant property. In the same survey 50% also said to give incentives to property developers. So more to be done on vacant properties is in absolutely no way and agreement with your view of a punitive tax but more likely an incentive scheme. Disingenuous at best but a outright lie in another sense. You know there is no such agreement from the survey for a punitive vacancy tax

    Vacant property tax would come out of the councils coffers as it currently does. They don't fine themselves and get to keep the money. The council own the majority of vacant property so punitive fines would reduce their money to spend on anything including doing up property. SO they either do up the property to avoid the tax or sell it. If you think that means more housing at affordable prices it will not.

    Keep chasing your dream and ignore all reality but it won't ever come about



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,289 ✭✭✭Blut2


    You're the one claiming you've worked in the explicit area, and are an expert, so know what it costs.

    But seeing as you've given your estimate of "a couple of million", thats absolutely nothing - the Irish government spent €8bn in the housing market last year. And huge amounts of that went on very ineffective measures.

    The study showed a huge majority of those polled were in favour of measures being brought in to incentivize vacant properties back to market. A vacant property tax is the measure that will be used for this.

    County councils don't own the majority of vacant properties in this country according to any statistic I've seen. But do provide an actual source for that claim so.

    Thats also not remotely a problematic issue - simply exempt county councils from paying the vacant property tax. Or redirect vacant property taxes paid directly back to local councils.

    Theres a reason vacant property taxes are now being pushed in the media as of late - and thats because the government is going to bring them in. Vacant property taxes are a measure that will impact only a tiny tiny number of voters in this country (only a subset of the 122,000 indivduals who own two or more properties), will raise tax revenue, will have a very quick impact as far as housing policy changes go, and will positively impact the housing crisis.

    Presumably given your vitriol against the idea you're an owner of a vacant property. In which case you should probably get planning to remedy that - or else accept you'll be getting taxed quite significantly for continuing with that financial malpractice.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,319 ✭✭✭cute geoge


    What planet have you arrived from ?

    there are no builders to build 100000 housing units per year

    there is no funding forthcoming from developers to build 30000 units per year not to mind 100k

    All the big house building sites are social housing basically the developer aint going to ever get caught no matter what ,No bulders or developers are risking big loans to develop sites for it all to go tits up like 2008 .

    young people are not bothered with learning trades,they can make a living far nicer so it all points to if goverment wants extra housing they will have to get the finger out re planning ,funding and labour.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,947 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    No, you made the claim it was quick and free. Now you want to change the goal posts. Changing it to being cheap in comparison to other spending is not free.

    The government via the council certainly are the largest owners of vacant residential property in the country if you need proof of that go find it as I am not going to spoon feed you well established facts.

    As for a punitive vacant property tax being an incentive you are fundamentally wrong because it is by design to force people to do as you want. You cannot fine the council and then return the money to them due to our legal system. You could make them exempt but that is not going to fly and get through the legislation and pretty much defeats the purpose.

    There really isn't that much talk about vacant property tax in the media. Derelict sites are talked about a fair bit. How do you know what the government are about to bring in?

    The reason I talk about this absurd idea is because it is absurd. You and others want to change a ton of legislation just to get to the point where you can charge people a ton of money to force them to sell their property like a dictatorship. Ideas like increasing property tax on people that have holiday homes that become RPZ. The new definition of vacant that you can't agree on. What exactly is your definition of vacant you want to push as I have heard others silly idea?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,660 ✭✭✭hometruths


    One thing that grinds my gears about housing in Ireland more than even the wide spread laissez-faire attitude to vacancy is a similiar attitude to mortgage default and repossession.

    It's an attitude that leads to this sort of thing - a solicitor/developer couple still living in a €2.6 million house in Ballsbridge, bought with €2m mortgage in November 2006 and have not paid a red cent off the mortgage since November 2009.

    This carry on is far more common than most people realise and the scale of it is a significant contributing factor to the current problems.

    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/bank-can-recover-ballsbridge-home-from-couple-who-havent-paid-rent-or-mortgage-in-16-years-1739637.html



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,947 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    If you think the government telling somebody what to do with property they own is the same as somebody that owes money to a private bank not paying it back you have a twisted sense of reality.

    You don't even realise the number of vacant properties is less than it normally is and vastly less than before as a percentage. They don't even have accurate figures with no way to get that data at present



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,660 ✭✭✭hometruths


    If you think the government telling somebody what to do with property they own is the same as somebody that owes money to a private bank not paying it back you have a twisted sense of reality.

    I'm not equating the actions of leaving a property vacant with defaulting on mortgage. I am equating the public and hence political attitude to both problems.

    In both cases there is a fairly widespread public misunderstanding or denial of the scale and impact of the problem, which has directly led to the government's reluctance to take the necessary measures to solve the problem. They won't do it because it has negative political consequences, given the lack of public support.

    You don't even realise the number of vacant properties is less than it normally is and vastly less than before as a percentage. They don't even have accurate figures with no way to get that data at present

    This is absolute nonsense and exactly the kind of misunderstanding I am referring to above.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,612 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    You don't even realise the number of vacant properties is less than it normally is and vastly less than before as a percentage.

    They don't even have accurate figures with no way to get that data at present

    😁 Literally contradicting your own posts. Trust the data you claim to know but won't post here - and in the same breath "the data is wrong" they haven't a clue 😂😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Genuine question. Does anyone actually know of a house that was repossessed due to non-payment of a mortgage? I know a few people who ceased paying their mortgage for a time or in perpetuity, and none of them lost their homes.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,660 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I also know a few people who stopped paying the mortgage for a few years, still in the houses now and making periodic payments, none of them seem to be under any real threat of losing the house.

    The only one I know of who actually had the house repoed managed to keep living in it for over 12 years without a single mortgage payment.

    All of the cases I know of personally are significantly above average value properties, and I suspect that the problem across the board is heavily weighted to very high value properties bought in 05-07.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,947 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    You are delusional. Using the figures we have vacant property is 8% it was 16% around 2007. The figures aren't even accurate because of how it is collected. That is you misunderstanding not the public. The other thing you keep on doing is adding derelict property to the vacant property. The other thing is where is the vacant property? Is i9t where people want to live and work? Apparently it is mostly rural properties

    What have I misunderstood about vacant property? You weren't event aware a vacant property tax existed already nor how it is defined. LPT is at around 75% collection so what is your vacant tax collection going to be like?Delusinal



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,947 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Not a very bright comment. They are the figures we have and they are also inaccurate but they are the only gauge we have. It isn't a contradiction



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,660 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Using the figures we have vacant property is 8% it was 16% around 2007.

    Bravo! We have crisis levels of stock for sale or rent, a supposed deficit of 250k in built stock, and a vacancy rate of 8% which is great, less than you would expect it to be because it is half of the 2007 16% figure!

    And then you ask "What have I misunderstood about vacant property?"

    You couldn't make it up. This is a pointless argument.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,329 ✭✭✭The Student


    Never heard of one being repossessed. A good indication would be the details of non performing mortgages. Would be safe to assume it is a bigger issue than being reported. How many loan books have the major banks sold to other funds?

    Why would a bank sell performing loans?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,947 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    I really have to ask when you started looking at property prices and the market in general? You seem to have so little historical understanding. Any idea what it averages out at or what the normal rate for vacancy rates is in Ireland or other countries in Europe?

    We have more property per person now than we did 70s-2000s. We have a very low occupancy rate which keeps going down which is a much bigger issue. Dublin is circled by housing that is way under occupied with people born in 40s-60s living on their own in family homes. The road I grew up has 10 houses that used to have 65 people living in them now it is 12. Where i live now is very similar with most properties only with 1-2 residents but they are large 3 bed houses with the odd 5 bed. There is a vacant property on the road because somebody died about 8 months ago ( which some people here said should have a punitive tax) but probate will take about another year. As there are 2 children they can inherit the property they won't have inheritance tax but if only one child they would have inheritance tax.

    Why you are fixated on vacant property is just strange. Encouraging downsizing and keeping people within their communities makes much more sense.

    You didn't explain what I misunderstand about vacant properties you just tried to shout me down by being excited when I told you a figure you never bothered to look up or try to understand. Occupancy rates are far bigger an issue but will natural resolve over 10 or so more years. Old family homes will start getting divided up as people won't be able to afford a whole house



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,612 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    2007 was peak tiger and notorious for overbuilding houses with no actual demand for them so that people could borrow against them and build even more. The vacancy rate was huge then because of that mental behaviour.

    That we are half the peak tiger rate of vacancy does not mean we are good. That's the point



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,947 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    I just used that year from memory but go look yourself. Vacant properties are normal at about 10%. Look up what it has been over the decades and you will see it is below normal. The properties per person has gone up dramatically since the 70s and occupancy rate has gone down. Vacant properties are not the big issue. It was 16% before 2007 too and after so your point about 2007 just disappears



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,660 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Any idea what it averages out at or what the normal rate for vacancy rates is in Ireland or other countries in Europe?

    It is generally accepted by housing economists and academics that a normal vacancy rate in a functioning property market with a good balance of supply and demand is between 5 and 6%.

    Under 5% would normally indicate a market in undersupply. Over 6% would normally indicate a market in oversupply.

    8% in an undersupplied market is insane.

    You didn't explain what I misunderstand about vacant properties

    I focussed on your misunderstanding of the wisdom in comparing the 8% vacancy rate to 16% in 2007.

    I ignored the other points because it was like a bingo check list of the most common myths and misunderstandings about vacancy. But here you go:

    • Vacancy is lower than we would expect compared to historical norms. Tick.
    • The data is inaccurate. Tick.
    • The vacancy numbers are being skewed by derelicts. Tick.
    • Vacancy is low in areas where people want to work and live. Tick.
    • Vacancy is mostly rural properties. Tick.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,947 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    You claim I misunderstand things with your stupid ticks but these are facts you just want to ignore. Are you saying the data is accurate? That derelict properties and vacant properties are the same thing?

    I don't know why you are claiming these are myths and misunderstandings. I'd like to see these reports of 5-6% meaning functional property market and then compare within Europe. By that standard Ireland has never ever had a functioning property market. Now you wouldn't be stupid enough to be quoting an optimal market figure as opposed to a functioning market because the market functions. Vacant properties is by no means the biggest issue or close to the top.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,660 ✭✭✭hometruths




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,947 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    And here is another report over a longer period which confirms my claims. Maybe it is like people cherry picking from poor data sets.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,660 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I assuming you haven't read that article and just latched onto the headline? It certainly does not support your view: "Vacant properties are normal at about 10%."

    There also nothing in that that confirms your claims, as far as I can see. Perhaps you could clarify instead of the just the link dump?

    Edit to add: I think I have just spotted what you're cherrypicking from that poor data set. The author's point:

    5) In the past 50 years the rate of vacant houses excluding holiday homes has been about 10% of the stock. There could be an opportunity to raise taxes here?;

    Is this what you think confirms your claim that a 10% vacancy rate should be considered normal? And thus 8% is evidence of a housing shortage?!

    If you look at the data it appears that he's rounding up to 10% to make a point, even going as far as rounding up by about 4% in 1996.

    And amusingly, what point do you think he is trying to make?! That there could be an opportunity to raise taxes here?

    Post edited by hometruths on


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,660 ✭✭✭hometruths


    In terms of reporting in fairness the Central Bank do regularly publish the latest data on arrears.

    The media tend to ignore it, and if they do report it, it tends to put a positive spin on the issue, along the lines of: "Mortgages in Arrears over 1 year are at lowest level since 2011"

    There is never any mention of the fact it is still at an extraordinarily high level.

    The reason long term arrears numbers are falling is because restructuring deals are increasing - interest only, split mortgage, debt write off etc. This obviously kicks the can down the road for the mortgage holder which is great for them, but it does nothing to solve the problem of the restricted supply in the market.

    https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/mortgage-arrears



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,289 ✭✭✭Blut2


    I said VPT was cheap, and quick, as far as housing measures go. I never said "free". Absolutely no moving of goal posts on my end. But I'll take that as an admission of yours that it is actually cheap and quick, since you can't put a supposedly prohibitively large price on it that you initially claimed to be an expert with experience to know.

    When you make a claim of dubious veracity that "county councils own the majority of vacant properties in the state" then you should expect to be asked for a source. If you can't provide it, then its quite obvious you have no idea what you're talking about and are just basing your opinion on vibes.

    You can absolutely increase funding to local councils from the general tax purse, which in turn would be receiving funding from a VPT. Its really not difficult.

    I could reply with an anecotal "I'm experienced expert in the area" as you did, but I'll give you an actually verifiable reason for why VPT is coming - there have been multiple articles in the media about VPTs, and polls done, in the past two weeks alone. Our media is extremely government influenced, so when a new legislative idea starts to get pushed across multiple platforms its almost always for a reason.

    The idea that during the worst housing crisis in the history of the Irish state, when we have 5,000 homeless children tonight, introducing a VPT to encourage just a fraction of the 168,000 vacant properties in the state into actual use as very well paid for housing is "like a dictatorship" is an interesting combination of morally bankrupt, financially inept and historically very unaware.

    And a very easy definition of vacant have been outlined to you in this very thread - its really not rocket science. ie any home vacant for 24 or more of the last 36 months (if you want to be very generous to landlords) to get around people moving in for 30 days or other short stays, and to allow for probate/sales, thats not a PPR, and thats owner isn't in a nursing home.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,660 ✭✭✭hometruths


    More on Mortgage arrears, Central Bank published an interesting analysis in 2022…

    In 2020 and 2021 more than half of mortgage holders in long term arrears (over 1 year) - paid absolutely nothing on their mortgage. That's nearly 15,000 people living for free.

    Another 7,800 paid somewhere between zero and 50% of their contracted mortgage payments. And a similiar number paid somewhere between 50% and 100%.

    Unsurprisingly the longer you are in arrears the more likely you are to be paying zero. Over 10,000 of the people paying nothing are over 5 years in arrears. 4,000 of these people are over 10 years in arrears.

    Collectively these mortgage holders owe €4.5 billion in outstanding capital.

    Quite astonishing figures.

    https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/statistical-publications/behind-the-data/Understanding-Repayment-Amounts



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1 philcoll123


    I apologise if this question has previously been asked, but is it the case that both applicants on a joint application must have been tax compliant for the four years prior to submitting an application for the Help to Buy Scheme? One of us only returned to work less than 3 years ago so unsure if that stops us from getting this scheme.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,660 ✭✭✭hometruths


    A proper vacancy tax is also urgently needed to sort out the Airbnb and STL problem. It's madness that this has been allowed to go on so long.

    The optimist in me is hopeful that the silver lining from the 40k houses in 2024 fallout, and threat of declining build numbers again this year will be to sort out the vacancy/STL problem once and for all.

    One couple who are described as private hosts have 189 live listings, according to data obtained by Threshold from Inside Airbnb, which monitors the popular letting and homestays website.

    A private individual host had 92 live listings, the analysis also showed.

    Dublin has the highest number of hosts who have at least two full properties for short-term lets – with 856 hosts advertising 2,287 properties. Cork is the second highest county where this is the case, with 312 hosts advertising 616 properties.

    In Galway, 292 hosts were advertising 1,009 properties across the city and county.

    It's the STL hosts with multiple properties that would be most affected by a stiff vacancy tax, not councils, or bottle collections, or nursing home residents etc etc.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/housing-planning/2025/03/14/nine-times-as-many-irish-properties-on-airbnb-as-in-long-term-rental-charity-says/



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