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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    "New Irish" is a weasel word (well, two words really). I would not move to France and begin calling myself "new French".

    I've long believed that buying property within the state of Ireland should be the purview of Irish citizens. Indeed, China (the source of many property investors here) have strict restrictions on foreign purchase of property within their state. They also do not recognise dual-citizenship. Ireland, on the other hand, is a globalist investment fund with a flag and crappy football team.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    IMO there are far more pressing problems to address in the property market than the nationality of property owners. As long as any properties that are bought are put to productive use I think there are greater influencing factors causing the problems than foreigners buying houses.

    I certainly don't think banning foreign ownership would do anything to improve affordability.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    I didn't say to ban foreigners from owning property. I said that I would like to see it restricted to Irish citizens. Someone can be a citizen of the Irish State without being ethnically Irish. In the absence of dual citizenship, this would mean that someone would be invested in this country and assimilated. But I digress…



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    OK I see the distinction but I don't think it really makes much difference in the grand scheme of things. If they're owner occupiers they're invested and assimilated irrespective of citizenship, and if they are not owner occupiers presumably they are landlords so they're providing much needed rental supply.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Well if there were restrictions on who could buy property, it would reduce the buying pool. Ergo, demand would fall. In that sense, it would aid affordability by taking many potential buyers out of the market.

    Anyways, none of this will happen one way or the other…



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I think all Irish citizens by way of their taxes are distorting the market to a far greater extent than the foreign buyers. I'd prefer to alleviate that problem first.

    That's equally unlikely to happen one way or the other!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Its pretty easy to dramatically reduce the number of foreign buyers without banning it. Lots of states have punitive rates of stamp duty for non-residents, which does the job nicely. It reduces foreign buyers, lowers demand / prices overall somewhat, and generates some revenue for the state on top while we're at it. We should really do similar.

    ie these are the rates for Singapore:

    Buyers-Stamp-Duty-Additional-Buyers-Stamp-Duty-in-Singapore_-Heres-All-You-Need-to-Know-2023.png


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I'm not suggesting that deterring foreign buyers is a difficult thing to do, just that I think it's not really going to make much difference.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Interesting also to note that Singapore has pretty punitive rates of stamp duty for its own citizens who want to buy more than one property.

    That proposal would not go down well here at all I suspect.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭Blut2


    I don't think it'd make a huge difference either to be fair. But I also just don't see any downside to it - its all positives, if small. Theres no real reason not to do it.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    That's fair enough, I certainly don't have any deeply held ideological opposition to the idea, but the downside I do see is potentially an unnecessary consumption of political debate and decision bandwidth for something that's essentially window dressing solutions to the problem.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd




  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Article in IT today illustrating my point on the government's role, which is essentially that the state is the marginal buyer in every aspect of the property market.

    The sheer number of schemes and measures the Government now presides over is hard to get your head around. On the demand side, it bought about a third of the 33,000 units that came on stream in 2023 for its social and affordable housing programmes through local authorities, approved housing bodies (AHBs) and the Land Development Agency (LDA).

    It also operates three property purchase incentive schemes – Help to Buy, First Home and a Local Authority Home Loan scheme.

    Designed ostensibly to assist young people trying to get on the property ladder and arrest declining rates of home ownership, the schemes are also there to guarantee prices for developers to elicit more supply.

    On the rental side, the Government plays an even bigger role through its various rent support schemes, the biggest one being HAP (housing assistance payment).

    The last estimate – from 2020 – suggested that 54 per cent (almost 300,000) of renting households in the Republic received some kind of State support to help with the cost of housing, double the number two decades ago.

    The shift from building homes to providing rent supports – the so-called bricks to benefits switch – has been one of the defining features of European housing markets. The Government now spends close to a €1 billion a year on these supports.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2025/03/09/government-is-now-a-property-octopus-with-tentacles-everywhere/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Tge idea that vacant property is a serious issue within the housing spectrum is a myth. It's 165k units or about 8% of stock. I like to see figures for other countries.

    At any snapshot in time there is probably about 20k units for sale probably 50%+ empty, we have about 50k deaths at least 20k of them will have units gojng through probate and then you have probably 20k units vacant due to owners in nursing homes. Those three issues are probably hitting 60k units.

    Next you have units over commercial premises which for security or insurance issues are not available for rent. This could be 20-30k units. As some of these woukd orginally listed as occupied in previous census they would be listed as vacant now

    If houses are complete by builders and either not sold or owner hasn't moved in ( remember this is a snapshot in time) then by census data they are vacant. If the owner is elderly and living with children it's listed as vacant. If it's a rental between tenancy it's listed as vacant

    The long term vacancy numbers are 23K for 10 years and 48k for 5 years. You would really need data regarding tyres of units whether houses, apartments or previous living quarters over commercial premises.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Commercial premises aren't counted in the 160k vacant property figure.

    Even generously allowing for your three issues (probate, sales and nursing homes) thats still approx 100k vacant properties remaining.

    48k of which are vacant for 6 or more years which is completely ridiculous - both for the housing crisis, but also for the owners own finances. And for the structural health of the properties themselves, if they're actually fully vacant.

    Those are huge figures given we only built 30k homes in 2024. If we could pull 10k a year vacant properties back into use (which would seem very doable given the above) we'd effective increase home completions by 33% a year. But even 5k, or 3k, would have a measureable impact. And theres no way 3k a year isn't achievable.

    That would make a huge difference to the housing crisis - at absolutely no cost to Irish tax payers. It would actually raise revenue too, if done via a significant vacant property tax. And it could be brought in almost overnight, its not something that requires years like most other supply side measures (apprenticeships, planning reform etc).

    And only 122k people in Ireland even own two properties or more, nevermind the even smaller number who own vacant properties. So theres essentially no political cost.

    Its a really easy win, as far as measures to help the housing crisis go - near instant, revenue raising rather than costly to tax payers, politically popular, and will have a noticeable impact.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Totally agree that it should be an easy win, but just cannot fathom why successive governments are so against tackling it.

    After the 2016 census figures were released the FG government was falling over themselves to say nothing to see here, even going as far as questioning the CSO's competence.

    Then when the 2022 figures were released, still showing it was an issue at 8%, the FFG government once again studiously ignored the elephant in room, and again encouraged a narrative that the data was unreliable etc.

    The risk of pissing off property owners who like to keep properties vacant versus the reward of increasing sales and rental supply would appear to be a total no brainer.

    So why has it been treated with such kid gloves? Makes no sense at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,471 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    any thoughts on this article from the independent….it might be good advice for investors but by the sounds of it renters and the tax payer are going to get creamed.

    Buyers could cash in if they snap up properties near new National Children’s Hospital, agents urge..

    https://archive.ph/xmdTp



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Accommodation over commercial property is. Lots of pubs and shops had Accommodation over them traditionally. People lived there. There is one pub in our village where the owner lived over it until about 5-6 years ago. Town next to us ( it's a very small town has a hardware shop with living accommodation over it, two pubs one with owner living over it, one where owner was living over it but vacant now.

    The census counts all living Accommodation. Interestingly there is local authority housing there and at present there is three boarded up houses there and they are that way for about 10 years. Go into any local authority housing area in Limerick and there's multiple houses boarded up longterm

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd




  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Great thing about Census 2022 is that you can drill down into hyper local detail which put all these arguments to bed about vacancy being caused by empty flats above shops and pubs in rural backwaters and other low demand areas.

    If you look at Dublin you will see that the wealthiest areas have huge vacancy numbers, and the poorest areas have very little vacancy.

    For example - a designated "small area" in Eglinton Road, Donnybrook - a very valuable, densely residential area, with a housing stock of 129 and a vacancy rate of almost 24%.

    Screenshot 2025-03-10 at 10.23.13.png

    Granted this is an extreme example, but the pattern of very high vacancy rates in the wealthiest areas is repeated all over Dublin.

    https://rdm.geohive.ie/pages/national-census-atlas

    ETA: this place will account for almost half of vacancies - 15 short term let apartments in a block.

    https://www.lodging-world.com/ei/hotels/errigal-house,-eglington-road,-donnybrook,-dublin-4--by-resify-in-dublin-99849541

    Post edited by hometruths on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Yes, we haven't hurt sick children enough, we need do double down and go after there parents and carers, because that is what taxpayers money is collected for, battering our children and those who care for them

    More please



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    How much are you suggesting this introduction would cost? You are claiming it can be done virtually instantly and at no cost.

    When I teased this out it turned out there is a lot of legislation that would need to be changed starting with a new definition of vacant and a completely new way to track such property that at best would be self reporting. If the tax was so punitive there would be many ways around it making it pretty useless.

    Just because a tax would only directly affect certain people does not mean that the public would agree with the idea.

    Then there is the biggest issue would be the councils would be most affected meaning less services for people in the community who would find it bizarre that the government would be give a punitive tax to councils without thinking about it. They wanted to bring in a tax on parking provided by employers but scrapped that as public servants would be affected the most.

    You are absolutely dreaming if you think it would be cheap, instant and workable. It would take about a year just to rewrite the legislation before even being reviewed and proposed. How much would that cost to do? What do you think the normal rate is of vacant property?

    You really don't sound like you know what you are talking about and just think because you think it can be done quickly and for free that makes it so. I have worked on legislation before around taxes and entitlements and it is not quick and very expensive.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Then there is the biggest issue would be the councils would be most affected meaning less services for people in the community who would find it bizarre that the government would be give a punitive tax to councils without thinking about it.

    Biggest issue?! Less services?!

    That's the biggest straw you've clutched at yet!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭Blut2


    If you're so certain, and experienced in the matter, that introducing such legislation would be prohibitively expensive do tell us an approximate costing to do so?

    Because the cost of writing, and introducing, similar legislation is absolute peanuts as far as I'm aware when it comes to measures that we've introduced to impact the housing crisis. The state spent an estimated €8bn on measures related to solving the housing crisis only last year in total, lots of which had very marginal effects (if any) at significant cost.

    Unless writing and introducing the leglisation would cost in the high hundreds of millions of euros (which is rather doubtful) per year its likely to have a very positive rate of return for its cost. The proven very large number of vacant properties in the state would give the measure the capability to boost yearly housing numbers considerably.

    Councils wouldn't be negatively impacted in the slightest. How exactly do you think increased localised government revenue, and increased utilization of local housing, would negatively impact councils?

    The recent myhome study would suggest 88% of people at least are in favour of measures to force vacant properties back to the market. So, that combined with the fact that only 122,000 people in the state own two homes or more (and and even smaller number own vacant properties), would mean all our current evidence would suggest a majority of the public very much would agree with the idea. Unless you have any actual data points to contradict this, instead of your own speculation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    You are making the claim it is easy and cheap so you have to prove it. It will cost a couple of million easily and at least a year to get it even proposed. Neither is cheap or easy but you are moving the goal posts to say once hundreds of millions

    The survey did not indicate it was a punitive tax people wanted on vacant property. In the same survey 50% also said to give incentives to property developers. So more to be done on vacant properties is in absolutely no way and agreement with your view of a punitive tax but more likely an incentive scheme. Disingenuous at best but a outright lie in another sense. You know there is no such agreement from the survey for a punitive vacancy tax

    Vacant property tax would come out of the councils coffers as it currently does. They don't fine themselves and get to keep the money. The council own the majority of vacant property so punitive fines would reduce their money to spend on anything including doing up property. SO they either do up the property to avoid the tax or sell it. If you think that means more housing at affordable prices it will not.

    Keep chasing your dream and ignore all reality but it won't ever come about



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭Blut2


    You're the one claiming you've worked in the explicit area, and are an expert, so know what it costs.

    But seeing as you've given your estimate of "a couple of million", thats absolutely nothing - the Irish government spent €8bn in the housing market last year. And huge amounts of that went on very ineffective measures.

    The study showed a huge majority of those polled were in favour of measures being brought in to incentivize vacant properties back to market. A vacant property tax is the measure that will be used for this.

    County councils don't own the majority of vacant properties in this country according to any statistic I've seen. But do provide an actual source for that claim so.

    Thats also not remotely a problematic issue - simply exempt county councils from paying the vacant property tax. Or redirect vacant property taxes paid directly back to local councils.

    Theres a reason vacant property taxes are now being pushed in the media as of late - and thats because the government is going to bring them in. Vacant property taxes are a measure that will impact only a tiny tiny number of voters in this country (only a subset of the 122,000 indivduals who own two or more properties), will raise tax revenue, will have a very quick impact as far as housing policy changes go, and will positively impact the housing crisis.

    Presumably given your vitriol against the idea you're an owner of a vacant property. In which case you should probably get planning to remedy that - or else accept you'll be getting taxed quite significantly for continuing with that financial malpractice.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,434 ✭✭✭cute geoge


    What planet have you arrived from ?

    there are no builders to build 100000 housing units per year

    there is no funding forthcoming from developers to build 30000 units per year not to mind 100k

    All the big house building sites are social housing basically the developer aint going to ever get caught no matter what ,No bulders or developers are risking big loans to develop sites for it all to go tits up like 2008 .

    young people are not bothered with learning trades,they can make a living far nicer so it all points to if goverment wants extra housing they will have to get the finger out re planning ,funding and labour.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    No, you made the claim it was quick and free. Now you want to change the goal posts. Changing it to being cheap in comparison to other spending is not free.

    The government via the council certainly are the largest owners of vacant residential property in the country if you need proof of that go find it as I am not going to spoon feed you well established facts.

    As for a punitive vacant property tax being an incentive you are fundamentally wrong because it is by design to force people to do as you want. You cannot fine the council and then return the money to them due to our legal system. You could make them exempt but that is not going to fly and get through the legislation and pretty much defeats the purpose.

    There really isn't that much talk about vacant property tax in the media. Derelict sites are talked about a fair bit. How do you know what the government are about to bring in?

    The reason I talk about this absurd idea is because it is absurd. You and others want to change a ton of legislation just to get to the point where you can charge people a ton of money to force them to sell their property like a dictatorship. Ideas like increasing property tax on people that have holiday homes that become RPZ. The new definition of vacant that you can't agree on. What exactly is your definition of vacant you want to push as I have heard others silly idea?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    One thing that grinds my gears about housing in Ireland more than even the wide spread laissez-faire attitude to vacancy is a similiar attitude to mortgage default and repossession.

    It's an attitude that leads to this sort of thing - a solicitor/developer couple still living in a €2.6 million house in Ballsbridge, bought with €2m mortgage in November 2006 and have not paid a red cent off the mortgage since November 2009.

    This carry on is far more common than most people realise and the scale of it is a significant contributing factor to the current problems.

    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/bank-can-recover-ballsbridge-home-from-couple-who-havent-paid-rent-or-mortgage-in-16-years-1739637.html



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    If you think the government telling somebody what to do with property they own is the same as somebody that owes money to a private bank not paying it back you have a twisted sense of reality.

    You don't even realise the number of vacant properties is less than it normally is and vastly less than before as a percentage. They don't even have accurate figures with no way to get that data at present



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