Irish birth rate falls below 1.4 - far below replacement level

If we are in a scenario today where there is not enough housing available why would we want the population to keep on increasing ?

If we rebranded the housing shortage as a population excess then all of a sudden a falling birth rate is a good thing.

Pension funding in the future is obviously going to be a challenge, that was going to be the case anyway, so there will just have to be taxation increases and changes that may be unpopular, such as the re-introduction of third level fee's to balance the books.

Wonder if there will ever be a topic of discussion where immigrants aren't ushered to the front and centre of the problem. Housing crisis? Blame immigration. Crime? Blame immigration. Cost of living? Blame immigration. Problems with tourism in Ireland? Blame immigration. Irish couples aren't banging out 3 to 4 kids minimum anymore? Blame immigration. Culture is changing? Blame all the other things that caused far more profound cultural changes in Ireland such as changing attitudes towards religion, urbanisation, the impact of American and British culture, the rise of technology in the form of smartphones and social media immigration.

Or, I don't know, maybe if migrants just disappeared tomorrow then Irish people would just start making babies like there's no tomorrow and we'd be transported back to the undefined time where monoethnic Ireland was problem-free.

The fact it's been falling for decades, undermines the claim the it's recent "government policy". In fact it fell steadily from the 1960s to around 1990. It's been much more stable since then, including the boom to now.

But do you really think pricing young people out of homes has no impact on birth rate? Do you not think that can exacerbate a natural decline? Really?

What's the birth rate for people are less well off, unable to afford a home?
And also for those that are more well off, higher household incomes?

What has the change been in those groups over 25 years? Those are the facts you need to back up your claim. I don't have the data, but I'd be surprised if it supported your claim.

Exactly — but any link to migration, perceived or otherwise, will always be exaggerated. As long as people can identify any negative trend which coincides (however tangentially) with a rise in migration, then migration will be put forward as the primary cause.

Irish people nowadays are more clued in and better educated in safe sex – and teenage pregnancies have plummeted. The changing nature of what Irish people do for a living has also been a factor — they stay in education longer for one now. There is a stronger focus now on your 20s and early 30s being the time to experience life, travel etc — in between spending around 20 years in education and then spending the next 20 years raising kids and juggling careers that are more demanding than in the past. So people are often voluntarily putting off having kids until their early to mid 30s now.

How you reverse these trends I really don't know, because it seems to require a reversal of a very wide and complex array of social and cultural change. Better and more affordable access to fertility treatments such as egg freezing etc might be something however which adapts to the current reality.

I can't afford to buy property in the current market so ergo I have zero interest in having kids without some level of housing security. Probably will end up not having kids full stop at this stage.

which is what’s going to happen regardless… just now we’ll be told that it’s absolutely necessary, because of this.

Why aren’t Irish couples having kids ? I can’t speak for every irish person but what I see and experience….

Most couples need to bring in two wages to pay for rent / mortgages, car loan, healthcare and other living expenses. Add kids to that…💶💶💶💶💶💶

Most couples don’t have an opportunity to live close to their job… my own cousin is just an example of the many I know.. she is living way out in Balbriggan (hates it), but working in Clontarf… about a 70 kilometre round trip daily… she can only afford an older 15 year old car that according to her drinks fuel. She leaves home at 7.40am, she gets home just after 6.30pm…. She has meal prep/eating, household chores as well as rest and relaxation all to be squeezed in before going to bed at 10.00pm

The state the country is in , how fûcking obscenely expensive it is just to exist…. How much of our time is spent commuting on packed over crowded public transport and roadways.

Life for Irish people…. Well the fact is we have been thoroughly deprioritised by our political system and the EU…the message is now..’suck it up’ and make the best of your existence. How little available time people have for r&r and doing the things they like…

Sorry, existing isn’t ‘living’. And people just don’t want to bring kids into a world to ‘exist’….into a life where many are barley even doing that already themselves.

It’s no great mystery as to why people are not having kids.

All part of a plan formulated in the back of my bar in Lanzarote in 2002!

A cabal of emigré Irish publicans & hurling fans came together and we decided the best way to keep the Irish Bar bandwagon rolling?

Would be get them playing GAA in Asia & Africa, then we'd follow behind with cheap Nigerian Guinness 😉 It's also where we came up with the spice bag! One of the proposals floated was combining the Chinese Restaurant & the Irish Pub into a "Super Venue" so we came up with the Spice Bag as the Irish spin on Chinese food as step one.

* This isn't all untrue, more like 2 truths and a lie. Still though, isn't it great to see our culture spreading a little deeper than just pubs and Irish centres.

the citation is from what I see and experience. Family, people in jobs that have been colleagues of mine. Endless experiences related directly.

70 kilometre round trip not considered excessive ? Do you get to speak for everyone doing those trips ? That they are just.. ‘not considered excessive’ ? Bit of an overreach on your part there. I certainly know people that do consider them excessive. Especially when attempting to align with family responsibilities and a good healthy quality of life.

Housing and high cost of living are contributing factors.

More younger people are living at home in this generation compared to previous generations due to housing Issues / high rental costs / lack of new social council housing built.

To quote a recent Rte news report.

" Almost 70% of 25-34-year-olds have said the cost of owning a home is causing them to delay getting married and or having children, according to new research. "

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2025/0212/1496375-marriage-housing/

For example a young couple lets call them johnny and mary; if neither johnny nor mary can afford to rent a place together or get a mortgage I can understand why johnny and mary might delay starting a family.

Back in the 2000s I knew people when they had their first child they were giving priothy on the housing list and giving a council house to live in.

The lack of new council housing builds now vs back then is an issue.

More people are living at home because there is more people.

The ratio has remained unchanged.

Ireland particularly have a lot of young adults living at home because we are the most educated country in the EU, with the highest level of 3rd degree participation and qualification rates.

A positive of higher wages and living at home is first time buyers are now entering the market with more cash on hand which means they have a larger percentage deposits which means the term and cost of a mortgage is less.

No one was complaining about abandoning their rentals to leg it hometo live with Mam and Dad to work from home and save a fortune during the pandemic.

One of the net results of that was incidental landlords who bought high during the boom saw it was an opportunity to sell up and exit the rental market which of course was good for the cash rich buyer but bad for the rental sector.

I feel one factor must be housing.

If rents halved, and house prices were 25% lower, at more normal levels, would fertility increase?

There was always going to be a changeover from banning women from the Civil Service once they got married to where we are now.

Our birth rate is above the EU average which is lower than historical primarily driven because women don't want to be treated like cattle anymore.

In fairness, it's 52 years now since women were barred from the Civil Service once they got married. Any woman who experienced that injustice is now well in to her retirement years if not pushing up daisies - so, perhaps banging that worn out drum is kind of pointless today. As for 'women don't want to be treated like cattle' - there are a few 'new to the parish' cultures that are growing in numbers in Ireland today and perhaps that label should be pinned where it really belongs.

Edit: Forgot to add, there has been no (zero) increase in Children's Allowance in near fifteen years.