Ireland - now considered one of most vulnerable countries in the EU (defense wise)

First time I had heard of this case

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/14/high-court-to-hear-claim-of-secret-ireland-uk-terrorism-defence-pact

Spending just 0.2 of its GDP on defence, Ireland’s defence budget is proportionally the lowest in Europe and far short of similar-sized countries such as Portugal, which spends 1.5% on defence with a goal of increasing that to 2%.

Given the events of the moment and narrative around defense spending can definitely see it becoming more of an issue for us having such low spending and as the article above showed with Michael Martin's recent comments.

Regardless of whether we 10x our defense spending to 2%, the fact that at the moment we currently have 22% fewer army personnel than our agreed strength is a joke. Should be a big push to increase that back up and get it over 10,000.

In 2021/22 the Government formed a Commission on Defence, involving defence chiefs, academics, organisational change practitioners and others from Ireland and all over Europe. Importantly it included retired senior Generals from Scandinavia, where at the time of course, Sweden and Finland were neutral.

They were given a brief to develop a framework for reform of Ireland's Military, to equip it to adequately protect our territory, oceans, resources, infrastructure, cyber, data and people in the geopolitical reality in which we find ourself. They were instructed to frame it around Ireland remaining militarily neutral for the foreseeable.

And so they produced a 200 page suite of recommendations, namely; Level of Ambition 1, present day, do nothing. Level of Ambition 2, reform the command structures, stand up three services of equal status, Army, Navy, Air Force with a detailed plan to enhance personnel numbers to fit enlarged services and new specialist roles, and a strong emphasis on a military cyber command to defend all of the entities in the State.

Level of Ambition 3 was shaped as a full bells and whistles defence structure for 2040; a full armoured mechanised division as the Army, an ocean going Navy of up to 20 ships with full anti-air, anti-ship and anti-submarine capability, and an Air Force with up to two dozen advanced fighter jets, helicopter airlift and troop transports, drones for surveillance and battlefield support and a fully coverage air defence detection and interception capability. LoA 3 also includes vastly increased special operations forces for Land and Maritime, with the name Army Ranger Wing being dropped and Special Ops Force Ireland - Land and Special Ops Force Ireland - Maritime (under Navy command) being adopted.

LoA2 requires a budget of 150% that of 2022 at 2022 prices, LoA3 requires a budget of 250 to 300% of 2022 at 2022 prices.

The government immediately adopted the report at a level they called LoA 2.5, (all of 2 and some of 3) and had the Department of Defence appoint a civilian Transformation Officer to come up with an implementation plan.

So far, the focus has been on initiatives go get current DF numbers up to established strength and to enhance the attractiveness of the career and also the purchase of new equipment, while legislation to fully modernise the Defence Chain of Command is also due shortly.

Already purchased or awaiting delivery; 2 new Airbus C295 Maritime Patrol Planes, 1 new Airbus C295 tactical transport plane, 4 new Airbus H145M Light utility / attack helicopters, 2 Inshore Patrol Ships (ex Royal New Zealand Navy), 4 Navy Reserve armed launches for Port and Public Event security, a new recruit training facility in Meath and a multi-domain broad spectrum air, sea and land primary military radar for about €350 million.

About to be ordered are; 120 armoured infantry fighting vehicles to replace the 80 No. 20 year-old fleet; A new multi-role Frigate/command/support ship as Flag Ship for the Navy and a bunch of other bits in the works such as planning to replace Air Corps light attack/trainers, drones, new national military medical centre, a new Army Headquarters site outside of Dublin, new battlefield uniforms, new IT and lots more besides

The world has changed. And not for the better. We have entered a period of great upheaval for Europe and the old order of things seems to be collapsing.

Europe needs to stand on its own two feet. America is no longer reliable and is quite possibly dangerous to our interests.

We in Ireland need a serious dose of cop the fcuk on and commit to a serious investment in defence and strategic planning.

We don't need battleships or tanks. But drone carriers vessels, light fast moving vehicles, portable weapons (basically the stuff that's worked in Ukraine against Russia). But we really need some primary radar and ocean going vessels that are capable of actually securing our territory.

As recommended by the Commission on Defence report BEFORE the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Level of Attainment 3 was costed at around .08% of GDP. Of course the government decided to reduce the recommendation downwards to LO2.5 & continue to hide their heads in the sand even after the Russia Ukraine war started. Despite undoubted pressure from other European governments over the past 3 years there has been no serious consideration of actually achieving LO3 at a much earlier date & no intention at all to speed the whole process at a faster pace.

Now with events in the last week, the shite has really hit the fan, the pressure will be relentless from European governments & international fellow democratic nations.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=IE

Looks to me it's time for Ireland to go back to it's historical Cold War levels of defence expenditure, which maxed out at around 1.7%. Even with this level of expenditure Ireland would still lag way behind the present European average & way behind the latest NATO recommended defence spending recommendations. I don't know how this all works out as GNI (formerly GNP) is often suggested as a better benchmark for analysing Irish wealth. The country was poor up until the 1990's & became very rich in the years afterwards, yet managed to reduce it's defence budget since year by year, in real terms, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis.

If the country could afford it up until the early 1990's it can certainly afford it now. Failure to act will impact on the country's reputation & put it's future in severe jeopardy.

1.67% of GDP (€560million Defence spending 1980) adjusted for inflation 2023 is €1.84billion. 1.67% of 2023 GNI is €8.7billion. I'd speculate that European & other partner nations would be demanding a very substantial budget increase, over a much shorter time period given recent developments.

It looks like Trump could well have a nasty surprise for Micheál Martin in Washington in a few weeks time on St Patricks Day.

So what timeframe commitment have the government given to attaining L2.5? Even though that’s way behind what we should be spending.

Here's hoping Trump forgoes the niceties on Patty's Day to give Martin a right earful with regard our pompous and hypothetical foreign and defense policies.

Yeah we really need to loosen the purse strings but also make sure we get value for money.
For example (and I am by no means an expert!) I’d imagine we should be putting a lot of money into drone capabilities for air superiority vs getting a fleet of jets and training pilots? (Not that we can’t do both)

Also

I’d imagine we should be prioritising military radar and sonar plus unmanned reconnaissance drone subs to patrol our waters vs building/purchasing battle ships?

What about setting up an indigenous arms making industry- like Sweden?

Edit. Wrong thread. Apologies.

yeah all good points.
Will we be getting extensive drone capabilities do you think or is that just an extra over what we should have compared to navy, airforce and army?

about to order a frigate? That is quite a step change over what we currently have.
the Arrowhead 140 that the UK’s type 32 is based on seems to be quite a popular platform and would give not only UAV capabilities but also use bays to carry both manned and unmanned small craft and unmanned submersibles, which seem to be what the navy needs. I wonder if the visit of a RN Admiral is connected?

A few jet fighters wouldn't go astray, as currently I think I'm correct in saying we only have a few old propeller planes to "patrol" the skies. We really need jets, and we also also need some (armed) naval vessels that are capable of going out to sea to escort any Rusky naval vessels out of Irish waters.

No good us always relying on the RAF & Royal Navy to somehow protect us in some unwritten verbal "agreement" leftover from WWII.

We're constantly told just how wealthy Ireland now is, rolling in wealth, with the government coffers overflowing with cash, so why can't we buy half a dozen decent 2nd hand F16s or Tornados? plus a Naval destroyer kitted out with at least one operational gun.

Same goes for radar and our dependency on next door to tell us what's going on in the skies above and in the sea off our N/S Western coast. Maybe one deep sea submarine too? so as to keep an eye on the vulnerable underwater cables connecting Ireland, Britain & Europe to the North America.

I think Ireland can remain neutral whilst showing a little bit of muscle, so that it's not taken as a given that Ireland is Europe's undefended and open backdoor.

I dont know about this theory of the back door.

Russians sail a flotilla from the west, roll up in Galway. Is that the assumption in here?

It could work, if it was 1940, if there werent technologies which instantly ruin such plans from the get go.

And whats the strategy, Ireland first, and then the UK, and then Paris. I think that would be assuming a lot from the Russians. In both quantity and quality. I think if you manage to take our resource scarce island, then what? G.Britain? A nation of 65m+. Versus an expeditionary force.

The space and aviation and intelligence resources of dozens of countries know where Russias ships are at any given time.

And Russia is the most infiltrated country in history. If there were some plan to use Ireland as a back door, in an act of unprecedented strategic cunning, then we're going to know about it long in advance. As would Brussels.

A simple phone call would then destroy such a plan. Just let them know Irelands an eu member, and thus part of eu common security. Heres the location of every one of your vessels. Is there a torpedo pointing at the lead ship now? Want to risk it?

And Brussels aside, any such approach constitutes a hazard to N.Ire, which guarantees a UK response.

With all that aside, how many troops can Rus even move and land, theyd have to group up in Murmansk 4500kms away, eliminating many smaller vessels. They wont have usual levels of air support given our location. And humble as our forces are they can still expect to fight around 10,000 men on home ground, with advance warning. And supported by the people.

It would make no sense in any way.

I dont think this red scare is a reason for upgrading the defence forces.

Although there are others.

and then what?

steal the book of kells?

its bonkers. what are you going to do with captured Ireland? run it better?

ahh maybe its a stepping stone to the UK. well that would work if it was half the US navy.

if you think the russians are invading us then you havent fully thought things out.

its a pointless endevour.

i could steal my neighbors car. ok and what then.

1)steal ireland. *with shipping container full of spetznas.

2)???

3)victory.