Ireland - now considered one of most vulnerable countries in the EU (defense wise)

EU member.

Yes, but you're doing the hokey cokey pulling out the "EU member" card when the (admittedly imaginary) scenario of our big non-EU member neighbour getting a bit unfriendly is raised…

Earlier you said we have no responsibility to protect shared critical infrastructure like cables passing through our EEZ because it is not ours, and also many others in the EU (and also not in the EU) benefit from it too.

Sure we will may need a lot help with the task and can't be expected to shoulder it all alone (our EEZ is huge and we would need many years of investment to build up a navy and airforce to point it's actually capable of doing much, even if will was there) but it has long been my opinion that, as part of the EU, we do have some responsibility, and we have been neglecting it.

The recent storm has highlighted our dependence on the electric network and wifi. We need other options in an emergency like generators, gas cookers, batteries even solid fuel stoves. It was a small taste of what an attack on our infrastructure could be like.

look, certain people have entirely forgotten the realities of geopolitics in relation to the eu. especially in recent weeks, wonder why.

it may be petty but sometimes they need reminding that no you wont. unless you want to find out.

the uk should threaten…

ok all your continental trade is cut off. there, we can both do fantasy. fantasy your way out of that one.

ive seen this same act from russians, americans, brits, israelis.

'we should just (insert nonsense)' with a belief that nothing can be done in response by the eu. and theres always an obvious retaliation staring them in the face.

greenland, nukes, tariffs. whatever it may be.

edit: "Earlier you said we have no responsibility to protect shared critical infrastructure…"

no i didnt, just checked. i didnt say that at all.

Nonsense.

Eu is daily life, daily economics. Far more relevant.

The implications of damaging the eus solidarity are far bigger than the uk being booted out of nato. The UKs humiliation by the EU on the brexit border issue shows this.

They tried bullying us. The EU gave them a clip round the ear.

We are probably not as far apart on all this as it seemed (given you agree we have underinvested in defence, and now say clearly that we do have some responsibility for the protection of infrastructure in our EEZ).

We have not neglected it "completely", ok. We have not disbanded the military either, as some countries have done but the military (+ customs + police I suppose) are incapable of doing some defence/security stuff we might expect of them now due to underresourcing for years IMO.

You are right it is private infrastructure I think, and as you said alot of others use the cables and have interest in their security. Irrespective of exactly who gets most benefits, at the end of the day such infrastructure is usually protected by nation states in the stable bits of the world. We are not at the point yet in the EU where the infrastructure owners or tech. companies etc. need to pay for private armies, PMCs, or PSCs to protect "their" investments from physical sabotage and attacks, and I do hope we never get there. They should be paying for it through taxes, while the states actually provide security/protection.

The US and Chinese technology MNCs might be heavy users of these cables, or at least the damage to them will affect them anyway. They have all based themselves in this country, and we have collected large amounts of Corporation tax from them (and also the EU fines etc. because they are headquartered here) over the last decade or so.

Attacks on this sort of offshore infrastructure by vessels that have connections to Russia are getting extremely common in the Baltic sea. Will these sabotage operations stay confined to there, and never trouble us? Don't know. We will have more important infrastructure in our waters as we move towards a greener grid (so more offshore windfarms, additional electricity interconnectors with UK and with France to exchange energy with them when windfarms are producing more than we can use here ourselves, or we need a top up etc.). So if nothing changes politically in Russia, protecting this from attack could be an ongoing issue.

On the airspace, lol, well for safety's sake I do hope they go on keeping a weather eye on it for us for now, telling the air traffic controllers here what they might not be seeing on their radar.

The EU is indeed primarily a trading bloc and thanks to some countries (including Ireland) it does not have a (serious) defence ability.

Think about it - if Putin sends tanks into the Baltic States tomorrow morning, the EU has no ability to defend them, NATO does (possibly).

That means we’d need a non-EU organisation to defend our fellow EU citizens and their countries - which are part of our / Ireland’s EU market.

And if Trump does a “shrug” and declares Putin “a genius”, there wouldn’t even be an American response (and hence NATO) to such an action.

The national militaries have all the defense ability. Not nato, nato only has a filing cabinet.

Just like the EU, Nato isnt a military, its a bureaucracy which directs willing participants.

The possibility of Trump shrugging just shows that nato has jumped the shark.

And the shambolic Russian performance in Ukraine shows that the US/nato isnt particularly needed in Europe.

Are they going to try that with Finland and/or Poland?

Golf carts and north koreans. Turtle tanks and scooby doo vans.

While their economy is on eggshells. Against their only economic future hope.

Big ifs there.

Russia is a sham in any timeframe.

And Putins in his 70s.

He doesnt have the time. Will he be ready to go again in 2030? As a 77 year old. (Going to take a while for them to rebuild and prep their wee economy).

How far will they go if they do try, and how long will it take.

Well it took 3 years to get to Avdiivka, in under equipped Ukraine. Foreign donations to Ukraine at that time were undecided, recruits had to travel abroad to train. Sanctions were in early days. A lot of fumbling went on initially. People were still shocked back then.

So I wonder how might the road to Warsaw compare timewise. What age might Vlad be if he stuns the world with a successful 2nd western campaign?

I think a victory parade through Warsaw in 2035, aged 82 would be a very generous best case for Putin.

This scenario happening doesnt much worry me, in fact i cant imagine any non-nuclear scenario coming from Russia that seriously worries me.

I have some concern for the tensions which eastern member countries must endure, but anywhere west of lets say Romania will not be fighting rus military in putins lifetime.

Least of all us.

That sniper camouflage was really good. You'd never suspect a man in a suit as a sniper.

As some others on this thread (perhaps another one) We could develop our own drone industry for civillian and military use both simple and cheap and large long range types to patrol seas and air. We have the skills here.

Most Irish people have no concept of living under Japanese imperialism either.

Or Ottoman. Or fecking Egyptian.