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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,953 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Sorry bad cut and paste. Couldn't be bothered going back again. Yes somebody did but it was 50k my bad



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,557 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    I supported the idea of water charges initially, until half the country as usual, the ones already benefitting of a huge wealth transfer, were going to be given it for free… The Irish way… you work, you pay twice, for yourself and others…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,614 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    "Couldn't be bothered" yeah right mate jog on 😂😂🤣



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,953 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    I bothered. It was YOU that suggesting taxing OAPs out of their homes. Never bothered to do the sums on how this equity release/ reverse mortgage word work either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,614 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    That post does not come close to what you said it does - nowhere is there a suggestion of punitively taxing property owners to get equality of outcome with non property owners on similar salary. You made that part up.

    What is there to add up for equity release? You forfeit your inheritance to gain equity now. That's the tradeoff. It always works out for the OAP, it's the children who lose out on an inheritance, but given age profiles of children nowadays most would have a house by the time their inheritance comes through.

    Indeed most vacant homes (not above shop units) are 2nd homes as a result of inheritance, and they don't need lived in but people won't just sell, or they drag their heels.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,953 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    So you saw nothing about replacing income tax with wealth tax?

    If you are saying equity release is a good idea to stay in a persons home in order to remain there you could show the sums. The fact you won't and just say the same thing about inheritance instead indicates to me you don't actually believe it and you know the sums don't work out. How long is 100k going to last an OAP? Do the sums and show us otherwise it is just a wild claim.

    If you are going to claim most vacant property is inherited you will want to provide proof that contradicts the Irish Times articles about vacant property. That showed the reason was primarily down to planning issues and that they were purchased properties.

    The wild generalisations you use are way off and explain your very limited view of the population and property market. You weren't talking vacant property before as we specifically spoke about people living in the properties.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,614 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    I see our new minister for housing is off to China on his st patricks day junket.

    Any chance he'll bring back a few builders with him when he returns? Surely quite a few labourers out of work in China if stories of ghost cities are to be believed



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,614 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    This is what you claimed

    The tax being proposed was a tax on those owning property would be taxed to match up people on about 40k without a property to be matched up with somebody who owns a house

    There is nothing in this thread that backs that up.

    Wrt equity release : what are you struggling to understand? It's money that an OAP simply wouldn't have otherwise, they would be asset rich cash poor. Equity release allows them to be cash rich for their remaining year's rather than holding all this value in an asset (house) that they cannot utilise other than to give as an inheritance.

    There's nothing more to "add up"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,953 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    "Would love to shift the tax code away from income to land."

    "We need to seriously increase taxes on land to stop folk sitting on land, and take into account the privileges having a house in Dublin gives you, even a mortgaged one."

    "At the end of the day, wealth is wealth. And an expensive house in Dublin city is wealth, whether you are a doctor, tech bro, or an OAP. All 3 should be taxed equally on their wealth."

    Yeah never said

    I am saying taking out equity is a finite amount of money that would not last an OAP to deal with increasing expenses beyond their income level. You need to explain how such money would last instead of claiming it just works



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,291 ✭✭✭Blut2


    30% of the population living in Dublin does in fact confirm the majority of the population does not live in Dublin, as I said.

    The person on the dole has disposable income of 200euro a week after social housing rent - to cover all food costs, bills, clothing, transport and any sort of social life.

    And they have no prospect of a large income improvement. They're not getting a promotion.

    The full time worker on 45k has more disposable income even at exactly that income, and will have far far more in the future as their career progresses. And actually has purpose to their life.

    Again, the stats on this are really clear - if life long term on the dole was so much better than working then we'd have huge numbers of people doing just that. But instead our long term unemployment rate is 0.90%

    Which would suggest that the only people who think life is easier on the dole are those who like to moan about it online, perhaps because they've chosen careers that they don't enjoy. Because they apparently aren't bothered to actually put their theory to the test anyway.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,557 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    dont forget the 2 recent welfare bonuses Blut. Surprised they havent ramped that up, to monthly…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,614 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    If you think those posts equate to your claim of

    The tax being proposed was a tax on those owning property would be taxed to match up people on about 40k without a property to be matched up with somebody who owns a house

    Then there is no reasoning with you. The difference is stark in what you claimed Vs what was actually said.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,469 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    Continue to complain about the government that you voted for.

    If you hate everything they do, why vote for them?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,557 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Gary, please enlighten me…. Should I not have voted? given all of the options here are appalling?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,108 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Someone renting on an average salary and living in the capital city is not better off than someone on the dole who only contributes 120 euro a month for a 2.1k apartment.

    Your 45k employee, paying 2.1k a month rent, will only have 800-900 euro to spend on food, bills, clothes and socialising; the same as the person on the dole. If the 45k employee has any sort of pension, they will have even less disposal income.

    The person on the dole will get the non-contributory pension, so they dont need to worry about that; nor do they need to worry about medical costs.

    Future earnings are not guranteed and are not relevant to the 45k worker's current standard of living.

    You seem to keep ignoring the fact that someone on the dole has all their time to themselves vs the 40 hours pw, plus commuting time, that the employee has to sacrifice.

    Housing security is also much stronger for the person on the dole, not so for the person going to work and renting in the precarious private market.

    My orignal point was that the squeezed middle pay for everything and receive little in return. That point still stands.

    I dont begrudge anyone getting a good deal and social welfare being as strong as it is in this country is a good thing, but I do think the average salaried worker should be getting more back from the govt vs the effort they put in.

    Post edited by BlueSkyDreams on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,329 ✭✭✭The Student




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,469 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    If you don't agree with the previous/current government policies, yes you shouldn't have voted for them. You gave them your approval with your vote. You say "they're not fit for office" so why did you choose to put them there?

    You chose this government, grow up and stop complaining about every single thing they do.

    I voted for other parties because I disprove of the previous/current government. You chose FF/FG.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,469 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    Majority of the 45k earners don't rent a 2.1k apartment to themselves so this point isn't exactly relevant.

    I'm on that 45k salary, that you find seem to find so pitiful, and with my partner (on a similar salary) and we bought our first house last year.

    You're using extreme examples that is not indictive of the majority.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,953 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Then state what way you want a wealth tax to work

    Still not able to give details on your equity release idea so I doubt you do wither. You seem to just be angry and want everyone else to pay. The suggest people only have 2nd properties through inheritance is laughable



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,662 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Amidst all the recent grandstanding on RPZs and rent caps I've heard what seems like a sensible solution touted by a couple of sources, not least the OECD:

    One option to provide tenants with reasonable security over tenure and rent levels is a system of rent stabilisation, whereby rents can be freely adjusted for new contracts (between tenancies), but regulated during the duration of the contract (OECD, 2021a). Hence, Ireland should allow rents to be re-set between tenancies and adjusted for inflation during a residency, but care should be taken that it does not lead to unfair termination of contracts (see below).

    So basically cap any increases for the tenancy rather than the property. Makes perfect sense and there is something in it for both sides.

    I'd prefer to allow landlords to charge whatever they think the market will bear, but if not, this seems like a reasonable compromise.

    https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-surveys-ireland-2025_9a368560-en.html



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭DataDude


    The natural challenge is when the incentive to end a tenancy becomes so large that LLs start finding ways, even if it means skirting the edges of legality or taking a fine

    ‘Planning to sell it/nephew moving home…2 years later it’s back up for rent at double the price’

    You can try to regulate for that all you want but nothing will be watertight.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,662 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Sure, but that's also exactly what's happening now.

    Agreed nothing will be watertight, but can certainly reduce the instances by tougher enforcement and penalties.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,614 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    They need to limit the eviction clauses, but also streamline the process. Over holding for 12months should never be a thing, but equally evicting a tenant because my nephew's wife's cousin wants to move in is absurd.

    Imagine a commercial landlord told a tenant they wanted to end a lease early because they have a family member who wants to use the space!

    It's bonkers that it's considered OK to evict a tenant in those circumstances when it's residential.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭DataDude


    But the current ‘reward’ for getting around the eviction rules is relatively low as you can’t pump the rent up anyway (unless you materially renovate the property or leave it vacant for 2 years). This makes the reward for doing so potentially huge.

    I agree with you on both counts but can’t foresee a world where, in Ireland a landlord can’t evict a tenant to either

    1. Sell (or try to)
    2. Use it themselves

    As long as these two remain open this new system will absolutely be abused and on a much much wider scale than it currently is because the incentive becomes enormous.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,662 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Ok, fair point on current reward. Strengthens the argument for increased enforcement and penalties IMO.

    Do you think we should just leave current system in place then or have you heard any suggestions re RPZ/rent caps that you think would be an improvement?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭DataDude


    No, I would just outright remove it (along with two suggestions from timmy)

    Accept there would be absolute chaos for a while. Some real heartache stories of old people who had close to a free house for years now being faced with huge increases. But so be it, they go on the housing list like the next generation.

    I don’t believe in price interference. It creates too much distortion and huge winners and losers. RPZs have been incredible for sitting tenants and disastrous for future tenants. That is allowed/encouraged to continue because the 70 year old with cheap rent is more ‘visible’ than the 24 year old who has nowhere to rent because the hypothetical apartment was never built.

    Pain is coming eventually. It gets more painful the longer you leave it. Just not sure the government will have the stomach for it. But they’re seeing the whole system collapse with anpartment supply dropping remarkably and feel they have to act. Rock, hard place.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,662 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Totally agree, hence why I said "I'd prefer to allow landlords to charge whatever they think the market will bear, but if not, this seems like a reasonable compromise".

    Realistically it is never going to happen because as with every other measure needed to solve housing issues, govt will not risk the short term political pain for the benefit of the long term gain.

    Now's the time to take these politically painful decisions, if they're ever going to take them as they have benefit of five years to get over the fallout and see the benefits, but I won't hold my breath.

    As far as apartment supply via build to rent goes, instead of prevaricating I'd even prefer to see the government go full on Celtic Tiger on it and shoot for oversupply, remove regulations and provide huge tax breaks and subsidies and whatever else is needed to stop developers playing the poor mouth.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,953 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Pretty sure it is only immediate family but you wouldn't exaggerate would you?🙄



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Agree with all of this. I just don’t like the proposed changes as it could create absurd scenarios. Before we bought I was a renting at €2k per month. The place was worth close to €3k and I’d happily have paid it, the landlord was RPZ locked. Getting rid of me wouldn’t change that for him.

    Under the proposed changes. The landlord would overnight suddenly have had an utterly enormous incentive to remove me as a tenant. I know he would have done it too. He’d have found a way to get me out and subsequently charge €3k to a new tenant under this law.
    I’d have happily paid him €3k as well, but it would not have been allowed under this law. So this proposed change would almost certainly have gotten my family evicted.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,108 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Why dont 45k workers in Dublin rent 2.1k apartments?

    Congratulations on buying a house and I didnt call a 45k salary pitiful; it absolutley is not. Thats the whole premise of my point..



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