Donald Trump the Megathread part II - mod warnings in OP, Updated 18/03/25

Realistically though the only threat to the Petro dollar would be if the Euro were to displace is as the main trading currency for oil. Other's simply don't have the economic clout or trust to do so. It's also a dangerously stupid game that Trump is playing because he's only going to end up ceding US influence to the Chinese in the far east and likely Europe might end up taking the rest as the only stable governing structure.

The only way the US can ever hope to stop this is if somehow the Dems got a supermajority in the senate, impeached and removed that Orange waster and legislate major reform including restoring pre Trump structures, ending Citizens United for good and forcing major changes to the Supreme Court to root out the rot in that court as well. It's extremely unlikely to ever happen unless Trump and his cronies manage to piss off so many people that their Republicult is routed by Democrats across the board come the 2026 mid terms.

That war can never be beaten. Ridiculous to think otherwise. The demand is way too high.

If there is a demand for fentanyl or other drugs, they're going to come into the U.S. one way or the other. Drug cartels are almost endlessly resourceful and innovative in this regard.

If Trump wanted to really solve the drugs issue, he could start by sitting down with the heads of American pharmaceutical companies and telling them that the days of flinging around opiate-based pain medication end tomorrow, that doctors caught over-prescribing these will be given life sentences, as will pharma sales reps encouraging doctors to do same, then detox programs for those currently afflicted, and working on tackling the kind of poverty that is often a precursor to this kind of life.

But it's really about politics. Thousands of troops to the border will sate his followers and be a bit of a show, but it won't be much use to actually stop drugs. Might stop a few more migrants, though.

But, also, Trump's current rhetoric completely leaves out a huge part of this whole platform. He's been accusing Mexico of undercutting America in manufacturing for a long time. If he doesn't go ahead with the tariffs and maintains free trade, he's hardly likely to go up in the estimation of his rust belt voters.

Why oh why would Trump want to decimate the US ??

The scaremongering and hyperbole is off the scale.

For his billionaire buddies to short the markets and make even more money.

Delusion alert.

The tariffs aren’t gone, they are postponed. Canada won’t “fold” either, it will negotiate with Trump. All this hyperbolic language is so bizarre, Trump is the all powerful and all seeing. You are falling for this illusion of smarts and power.

If you think the EU will give any concessions, you don’t know much about how the EU operates.

Zero wins for Trump so far, zero.

Another great win for President Trump. Let's see what happens with China and Canada next.

Rather than Canada imposing tariffs, why don't they stop exporting to the USA parts needed to make the Tesla? That would make a bigger impact imo.

Why oh why did Trump put tariffs on soybeans?

How did that work out to anyone's benefit in the US?

The Trump administration gave more taxpayer dollars to farmers harmed by the administration’s trade policies than the federal government spends each year building ships for the Navy or maintaining America’s nuclear arsenal, according to a new report. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/01/21/trump-tariff-aid-to-farmers-cost-more-than-us-nuclear-forces/

Remind us again how Trump isn't a "vindictive" man (as you claimed on this forum after Trump's election win) as he strips his political opponents of their security and appears set to fire and demonise FBI officers who merely did their duty.

Yeah, that was patent nonsense at the time and Trump has made an absolute mockery of it.

The levels of denial are "off the scale".

No it's not, and Canada may not back down judging by the rhetoric coming from their government there. This negotiating tactic of Trump calling tariffs temporary and only for negotiations is the wrong approach. He should be given a timeline and not backing down, that's the only way investment and factories will return, companies won't return based on bluff from the President. It needs to be clearly set out and then they will be racing back, as the US has a huge domestic market. Trying to figure out if he serious or not defeats the purpose and no one will invest on that basis.

Trump should also realise that tariffs are his only option to achieve his policy goals as nothing will get through Congress as everyone there is in the pockets of MNCs big tech/pharma. He needs to be ruthless to execute his mandate otherwise in four years time he will achieve nothing.

We know what is going to hapoen with China. He tried it last time and failed.

Why do you think it will be different this time?

Same wurh Canada. He made a massive deal about forcing changes to the trade dwal and announced the changes a massive win for him. And now he is tearing up his deal becuase, according to him, its awful.

Yet people somehow think that he will be able to sort anything out! It makes ni sense.

I think they are locked into using US weapons for a while to come (possibly decades), even if they decided a new policy from today.

Countries in the EU that are almost completely reliant on US weapons (and of course the UK also) and must now be wishing they had given heed to those French arguments a bit more, even if some of it was possibly made with eye on promoting the French weapons industry.

Poland for example has recently bought (afair) US tanks, helicopters, missile defence systems, artillery, aircraft…(and a load of artillery and tanks and aircraft from South Korea, which is looking like being the far less problematic choice!…).

If the US wished, they could hobble a good portion of the Polish military with the stroke of a pen. Unthinkable pre Trump II of course, but one has to take the unthinkable into account now, even if still unlikely.

I wonder what the Polish govt. thinks of it all? 🤷‍♀️ Given the threat they face from Russia, the weapons can provide a giant lever to this US admin. to bully, extort and control them. I wouldn't be 100 % confident of the US "MIC" succeeding in talking sense into ilk of Trump/Musk and their mush-brained lackies and stopping them from ever yanking on that lever.

Back tracks on his bluster as predicted, gets schooled on economics by an educated, intelligent woman and the cult are calling it a win 😂

It's not just Trump. European Union already has the groundwork laid for a trade war through its tariff scheme known as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and EU sustainability due diligence law. US president Trump hitting the ground running and "shaking the box" has forced Ursula Von Der Leyen (EU) and Cristine Lagarde (ECB) to push out a response faster than they intended.

See the recent A Competitiveness Compass for the EU (Von Der Leyen) and Europe has strengths it can build on (Lagarde - ECB).

To add to all that there is a real war underway and pursuing an expensive energy policy that cannot technically deliver.

• Europe is fighting a war on it's doorstep with Russia and Belarus. European states no longer have easy access to Russian hydrocarbons. Russian ability to produce oil is being degraded.
• Qatar has fired a warning shot over EUs due diligence law and threatened to halt LNG shipments.
• Germany has been destabilized with the pursuit of its energiewende policy being one of the major factors in its economic decline.
• Norwegian government has collapsed over domestic electricity prices being driven up by exports. This is another part of the trade war, this time via inter-connectors. In 2021 France threatened to cut electricity to the Channel Islands, not the first time inter-connectors have been used in trade disputes. Ireland mostly exports electricity to the UK over the course of the year, the UK needs imports to keep it's grid functioning at times of peak demand accompanied by failure of intermittent generation. High energy prices are already an issue for Irish consumers and companies.
• The United States is the swing producer for LNG and probably oil as well.
• A global trade war could take down German banks due to shipping loans, setting off another banking crisis in Europe.
• Seeing as the United States is pursing an aggressive policy, Chinese government could review it's diplomatic efforts and take a more hard-line approach, they signaled they were not happy with CBAM from the outset.