FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Same. Would be lovely to have some dry, bright, mild weather. Everywhere has that awful green tinge to it from being so wet for so long.

The UK Met Office has issued an update on the prospect of cold weather for the UK later this week and into next week.

Frank Saunders, Met Office Chief Meteorologist, said: “It’s worth being aware that despite a largely pleasant week ahead, there’s a good chance the UK will experience a dip in temperatures at the weekend and into next week. High-pressure is set to move in, bringing along with it easterly winds, low temperatures and an increasing risk of wintry hazards like snow and ice. We’ll know more as the week goes on so it’s worth keeping up-to-date with the forecast in your area.”

In its long range outlook for the week commencing Monday 10th February, the UKMO says, "...the risk of wintry showers increases with a risk of some sleet or snow falling more widely for a time, but still with some sunshine in between. Temperatures will likely be a few degrees below average with some hard frosts and the wind may make it feel much colder at times."

For Ireland, the prospects of much colder weather remain uncertain as it remains unclear how far west high pressure will extend.

More from the UK Met Office here https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast

the point is it’s been a hard winter. Just walked down out farm here. It’s absolutely sodden. We could do with a bit of mild dry weather. Especially the folks in the west without power.

Most people are fed up with the cold, wind and darkness by February and longing for some warmth and brightness, hardly a difficult concept to grasp. Plenty on here are looking forward to winter by October/November or summer in April/May for similar reasons

No signs of spring on the models at the moment really though if we get any calm sunny days we might start to feel a bit of weak warmth in the sun at least, though the easterly wind will no doubt keep it feeling cold. At least the Atlantic looks to be kept at bay for a while from midweek onwards

An easterly dries ground faster than anything else - warm or cold. A week of that coming You'll be grand.

Gfs 12z ensembles are very poor for cold. Op run a proper outlier

Ive no doubt it will come back. Then pushed out a day, then disappear until it comes back pushed out two days, until it end up in March.

nowhere near cold enough in Eastern Europe for an Easterly to work

Moscow daytime is above freezing atm

You’d need a NE feed from north of Scandinavia and east of there which is what we had circulating around and towards us in 2010

Yes at the moment, but if we can get some high-latitude blocking cold air can flood mainland Europe. Question is whether it can reach us..

18z showcases this well. From a complete lack, to an abundance of cold in 4 days. However, it fails to reach us

From experience it takes 4 to 5 days for Eastern Europe cold to reach here and that means based on those charts you’d need a perfectly orientated high in Scandy for more than a week with 4 days of that week building that cold into Europe and another 4 bringing it across

You’d have your Easterly here for the first 4 days alright but not with cold enough air

That’s the practicality of it,a big ask and why it’s rare

Regardless of what happens in the medium term, it looks like the entire country has three days of sun to look forward to in the short term from Wed to Fri.

Should hopefully put everyone in a nice mood.

And Western parts could see a nice weekend too.

we may not have a direct easterly all the way from Vladivostok but it can only come progressively colder and not milder over the next two weeks, a long way to go before we see whether we only get temperatures ‘close to average or slightly below’. I’m pleased we aren’t getting a Siberian blast as it always ends in a short cold snap, just a couple of days like Jan 1987 and the ‘BFTE’ , I think the Siberian blast at the end of Dec 1978 ended as quick as it started, again just a couple of days. Give me the gradual build up to a lengthy spell rather than a snap.

that’ll do me nicely!

No Beast, but there will be a Bite in the air

A spell of colder, drier weather is on the way for the remainder of this week and into the start of next week. Daytime temperatures will be close to normal for the time of year (6-9c) while overnight frost will become a feature of our weather. Winds will veer from southerly during Wednesday to southeasterly during Thursday, which will provide good drying conditions for waterlogged soils (and clothes on the line).

Much of today's model output suggests that the Atlantic will attempt to reassert its influence on our weather by midweek next week, but there is little indication we will see a rapid return to the very unsettled weather of the past fortnight. Equally, there is no indication that the coming week’s cooler weather will evolve into a much colder spell.

In essence, northwestern Europe will find itself in a meteorological no man’s land by early next week with Atlantic systems never too far away to our west and heights extending between Greenland and Scandinavia keeping us in a relatively slack southeasterly airflow. The outcome depends on the orientation of these areas of high pressure and the extent to which the Jetstream interacts with expected cold weather over North America.

From a cold weather perspective in Ireland and Britain, the JMA (animation) provides the most interesting output of the evening model runs as it sets up a possible colder airmass extending over northwest Europe just beyond Day 10. The KMA and CFS produce a similar outcome. The GFS (US) and GEM (Canadian) models show Atlantic systems encroaching from our southwest by or just after mid-week. The ECM (European) looks determined to keep Ireland in a meteorological no man’s land.

All model output for Day 10 is featured below. The images feature 850hPa (approx 1500m) temperatures, which provide a good indication of likely weather at the surface.

Something has got to give, and we will know more about next week’s weather prospects in the coming day or two. The Atlantic usually wins the day in this neck of the world, but the outlook can change rapidly in light of the warming going on in the Polar stratosphere as will be the case in the coming days.

This finely balanced situation is best summed up by the 12Z ECMWF EPS clusters showing a near 50/50 split between a cold SE/E airmass and a more Atlantic-influenced airmass dominating our weather. In forecasting terms, the long-range outlook for now is far from determined. To Beast or not to Beast? That is the question.

At things stand, there is plenty of drier and brighter weather to come over the 7 days or so.

No beast, maybe a terrier from the east or Jack Russell for the next 10 days🤭 A bit of a small bite.