FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

that’s a streamer screamer !!

Yes it can take 2 to 4 weeks to have an effect here ,not getting hopes up yet not till at least next weekend

Next weekend is set to be largely dry with temperatures at or, perhaps, slightly below average levels for the time of year.

Widespread overnight frost with fog in places will become a feature of our weather in the second half of the week owing to generally slacker winds and high pressure anchored to our east and south.

With the exception of Monday night and Wednesday night, winds will be generally light to gentle.Atlantic coastal counties will experience the highest precipitation totals, most of which will come from Sunday and Monday night/Tuesday morning's frontal systems.

Totals will be much lower further east over the next week.The below chart shows some of the main weather models for Saturday afternoon. The other graphs show the GFS 12z ensembles for precipitation and air temps. the white line signifies the average (mean) of all 30 members of the model. The green line is what was depicted on the operational run.

A pity, if it happens, it wasn't a month ago.

Seems to be a bit of a race against the clock now. I suppose it's something to follow.

late Feb into early March 2018 proved that severe cold is just as potent late in the season. My own county Clare had its biggest ever snowfall (46cm) on April 1st 1917. Late winter to early spring snowfall tends to be more disruptive too due to higher moisture content of snow.

me too, Oiche.

Sadly, a perfect match of what we want and what we get weatherwise in Ireland is as rare as a politician who can lay straight in the bed 😜

I guess this kind of answers my question but just the ramifications at ground level. Below is an extract from a post by Catacol on Netweather who I would deem pretty knowledgeable poster over there.

"The good news in this situation is that the potential timing of an SSW(still a big if)  is in harmony with the pacific impacts or +EAMT and spiking angular momentum, while the MJO also heads back towards the pacific and phase 7. Those impacts would encourage tropospheric ridging to higher latitudes even without an SSW.Put the two together and the impacts of an SSW will be both magnified and faster than might otherwise be the case as a strat split and pacific forcing act in unison" 

So the timeing of both might expediate its effects. Mights buts and maybes but we still cling on in hope.

I would like to see one snow flake that doesnt look like it got blow torched on the way down this year. Nothing but slop so far. Fingers crossed.

Our weather will turn more settled and cooler after Tuesday as high pressure builds to our south and east keeping Atlantic systems at bay.

There are signs of a strong block to our east and northeast for later next week. However, any easterly or southeasterly component to our weather does not necessarily mean severe cold for Ireland due to the absence of a deep cold airmass to tap into, at least for next weekend.

There will be excellent drying conditions due to the drier SE/E winds from later Tuesday to Saturday, which will come as good news for gardeners and farmers as soils are currently saturated or waterlogged.

How cold will it get later next week?

At present, temperatures will be around average or slightly below for the time of year. Night-time frosts will become more prevalent. Some mixed wintry showers are likely on eastern and southern coasts due to convective activity as colder air passes over the warmer Irish and Celtic seas.

The operational run (green line) of the GFS model continues to over-emphasise the extent of how cold it will get later next week in comparison to the ensembles mean (white line). It is, however, run at a higher resolution so we may see a movement toward it over the coming days (see ensembles output in first image).

That said, it will be mid-month and beyond before a deeper source of cold is potentially in place (see side by side graphic).

Beyond mid-month?

The Polar Vortex remains strong, which is associated with a northward shifted jet stream that is serving to corral the coldest air over the pole.

Warming of the polar stratosphere (10km and 50km above the North Pole) is expected to disrupt the Polar Vortex around mid-month. The extent of any PV disruption has yet to be determined but it is likely that cold air will flood south into the mid-latitudes in the second half of February.

A minor Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is favoured but a major SSW is showing increased support compared to 48 hours ago. The extended range forecast for mean zonal wind in the polar stratosphere is depicted in the below image. Below 0 m/s indicates a reversal of westerly winds over the North Pole i.e. major SSW.

A major SSW occurred before the Beast From The East in 2018. However, a SSW does not always lead to severe cold in Ireland and Britain. 25 major SSW events during the past 40 years, a relatively small number have led to a BFTE outcome in Ireland. A SSW in January 2019 had little impact on Ireland's weather, which, in fact, remained relatively mild for the rest of the meteorological winter. Another SSW in January 2021 produced cold conditions in Ireland and Britain, but it was much less severe that the 2018 outcome.

A graphic to explain the Polar Vortex is included in the final image.

The hp this coming week ,I hope to Christ it won't be another one of those cloudy highs.

pleased with the way things are progressing, get the building blocks in place first and the rest should follow .. hopefully!

ott ramping of course but a rare Feb cold spell seems imminent.