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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,601 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Once again your the one who brought this off topic and making an issue out of a post which has a direct correlation to our mismanaged and dysfunctional property market. You are refusing to look at the information or will not provide your own information to back up your opinion and now your going off on a whinge about getting back to topic. FACT IS - our immigration policy is a large part of the reason why our property market is not functioning correctly. I take it from your lack of a list that you accept the list I put up is in fact/proof of what I was saying.

    In order to heal a patient you have to first look at why the patient is sick and you try and stop the issue at its source instead of tinkering around with their symptoms.

    So applying that to our property sector. One of the main reasons our property market is sick is because of our immigration policy (we simply have not got enough housing to deal with the numbers coming in) and it needs to be tackled along with other issues in order to get the market back to regular base line.

    Post edited by fliball123 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29 Help_to_


    If I can afford to buy a mobile phone for 2,000 euro, then I don't need a 200 euro grant to buy it.

    The fact I would be in the market for a 2,000 euro phone is evidence enough that my earnings are enough so that I can save up the 200 euro myself.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    A list of opinions is not fact.

    I'm not willing to engage in further discussion immigration and your perceived negative impact it has on society on a property forum.



  • Administrators Posts: 55,064 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    I think the vast majority of people in this country will agree that if you can afford to get a mortgage on a new build, you don't need help to purchase the new build.

    Er, no. Again, I think you don't understand the scheme or why it exists. I am also not sure why you keep talking about new builds as if buying a new build is indicative of incredible wealth. Where on earth have you got this notion?

    As we saw pre-HTB, there were loads of buyers who could easily afford a mortgage on a new build but could not get the deposits together due to high rents.

    The impact of this was these people were stuck renting, driving rent up further. This has a knock on effect on lower earners like yourself, it makes it more difficult for you as well.

    They are not getting free money for no reason. Firstly, it's a tax rebate, so they can only get back what they have contributed. Secondly, as we saw in the past, it is absolutely not for no reason.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,601 ✭✭✭fliball123


    So you wont google the list I put up for facts that back up what I am sayin and this is you engaging in the discussion - REALLY ..

    The list is there for anyone who has the cop on to search for the facts. I wont be engaging with yourself either I could put up endless links supporting my opinions as fact but you will not be swayed and you wont engage by looking for yourself. Good luck



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29 Help_to_


    If HTB was so great, then why did the central bank increase lending limits?

    HTB just increases property prices. And rent is a function of property prices, so HTB is increasing rents too.

    We get it, you're a homeowner who got a free 20 or 30k back to use as a deposit and are sitting pretty with 30% house price increases in the last few years feeling good about yourself that you got in at a good time.

    It says a lot that the vast majority of potential first time buyers think HTB is a bad idea. Increasing supply of money for the same number of housing is inflationary.

    Prices literally jumped overnight when HTB was introduced/increased and will do so again if they increase it.



  • Administrators Posts: 55,064 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    This is a really bad analogy that does not translate to the housing market, phones are not a finite resource.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29 Help_to_


    If you think HTB was introduced to help renters buy, then please answer this question.

    • Why is HTB not available on second hand properties?

    If HTB was extended to 2nd hand properties, I'd get a free 30k and in your view, prices would not increase. Therefore I'd be laughing.

    But I don't want HTB for 2nd hand properties. Because if you put yourself in the shoes of a seller, if the people I'm selling to got an extra 30k overnight to spend, would I….keep my asking price the same? Or would I increase the asking price by 30k?



  • Administrators Posts: 55,064 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    HTB is not available on second hand properties because it would not increase supply. That is not a difficult question to answer.

    Again, I think you are misguided on what this scheme is intended to do. You keep bringing up "but HTB increased prices" despite it being explained multiple times in the past few pages how this is not significant.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29 Help_to_


    You said HTB was introduced to help renters who could not save a deposit for a property.

    If HTB doesn't increase the price of new builds, why would it increase the price of second hand properties?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,601 ✭✭✭fliball123


    The government could help our supply and demand and cost issues here by doing the following with regards to property

    1:) Stop vultures from bulk buying

    2:) Put a temporary stoppage on people buying more than one property - 10 years

    3:) Allow a 5 - 10 year period where people can sell their non resident property without paying CGT

    4:) Stem the amount of people coming here for the next 5 - 10 years with the caveat of people who are in certain trades and who will contribute be allowed in like the Australian system.

    5:) Ramp up modular homes and let those who are currently at refugee status and/or those looking for a gaff from the welfare system use these and allow the properties they were in come back onto the market.

    6:) The government should stop bulk buying and competing the same market as those who are just looking to get on the ladder.

    7:) After this put a higher tax on rents received and if a person has additional property they should be encouraged to sell with a sweetener at number 3 on the list here.

    8:) Take away all subsidies for First time buyers - This has had an inflationary effect and property would fall if they were taken away

    9:) Use it or lose it for developers - people who have property for planning should be forced to build or sell by upping the tax on vacant land with planning. 50% tax would see them get into line. No more carrot for these guys who are playing the violin when they are making a decent profit.

    10:) Incentivize over seas workers in the building game by allowing come here work in the building game for 5 years without paying tax if they want to stay after that they start paying. If they stop working in the building game they pay tax.

    11:) More focus on the building trades in secondary schools and within further education after an individual has done the leaving/junior cert)

    12:) All current and future housing that are state owned - should remain there no more giving out cheap or freebies to anyone. When a person who needed to be housed is dead or no longer needs the social house - it should be given to the next person on the list and not remain in the family for ever more or sold to them on the cheap.

    Some of this would be hard to swallow and some will take years to see the benefit but we do have a crisis on our hands and we need some real out of the box thinking before we see our best and brightest head off to other countries as Ireland is simply too expensive for the majority of those living here under 30s to buy or rent.



  • Administrators Posts: 55,064 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Sigh.

    From my very first post on this topic:

    HTB was introduced to combat the problem of people being able to afford a mortgage but being unable to gather the deposit required because of rent. It loaded up the deposit for you, and in the amount you pay was higher, but over the lifetime of a mortgage this is a relatively insignificant amount.

    The deposit advance was the carrot for buyers. The increased price was the carrot for developers.

    From my second post:

    HTB really has little impact on affordability. You are trying to suggest that without HTB prices would be lower by an amount that actually makes a difference, this is wishful thinking. Prices may be lower, but not by any significant amount. People suggest that without HTB prices wouldn't have risen like they have over the past 10-12 years, I think this is delusional thinking. 

    You are still stuck on this "increased price" thing. It is not significant.

    HTB not existing is not going to make things easier for you.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29 Help_to_


    Your original posts are what I said.

    You say HTB doesn't increase house prices.

    You also say HTB was introduced to allow people to afford to buy because high rents mean they can't save a deposit.

    So, going by that, why amn't I getting a 30k HTB so I can afford a deposit to buy a second hand property?



  • Administrators Posts: 55,064 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    You say HTB doesn't increase house prices.

    No I did not. Absolutely nobody has said this. You are arguing with yourself on this point.

    It has consistently been said on this thread that HTB increased prices but it the increase is completely insignificant. It has had pretty much zero impact on affordability.

    I think you are under the illusion that if HTB did not exist prices would be significantly lower. They absolutely would not.

    I have already answered why HTB is not available to second hand properties.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    why amn't I getting a 30k HTB so I can afford a deposit to buy a second hand property?

    Unfortunately for you because it does not increase the supply of available stock, incentivising developers in building new builds was one major reason why HTB was introduced as it made them a more attractive investment.

    Also adding HTB to the second hand market would have a much greater inflationary impact on the market as more prospective buyers have larger amounts to bid with. There is no bidding process on new homes, you can either afford it with/without HTB or you cannot.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,673 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Unfortunately for you because it does not increase the supply of available stock, incentivising developers in building new builds was one major reason why HTB was introduced as it made them a more attractive investment.

    This was the same reason the First Home Scheme was introduced. It is now being extended to second hand homes.

    Not that I'm in support of HTB being extended as well, just pointing out the flaw in the wisdom of extending the FHS.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    I don't agree with the FHS concept at all, literally the government making profits from their own flawed (perhaps intentional) policies, but disguised as helping people.

    My partner and I did look into it and gave it some consideration as our budget was just below a lot of new builds, but we agreed it wasn't a sensible option at all and purchased a second hand that in the end was below our budget.

    With the FHS extended to second hand homes it will immediately increase house prices.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,619 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    I don't think banks will allow you to borrow 90% LTV on an apartment, so the poster would need 20% deposit. On a 350k apartment that's 70k.

    It's not set by central bank but banks usually are more stringent on LTV for apartments



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,619 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The deposit advance was the carrot for buyers. The increased price was the carrot for developers.

    Schrödingers price increase - it is both significant enough to stimulate more new builds construction but also insignificant enough to ever have negative price impacts on buyers!



  • Administrators Posts: 55,064 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    The impact on the developer and the buyer is entirely different.

    The developer gets their 30k immediately, the buyer is paying an extra 30k over a term of 25-30 years.



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  • Administrators Posts: 55,064 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    It's only 20% on 1 bed apartments (or houses).

    Everything else is 10%.



  • Administrators Posts: 55,064 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    It is probably also worth pointing out that getting a 30k rebate is not a high bar.

    To get 30k back you need to have paid 30k income tax over the past 4 years. That's not a lot, it's certainly not high-earner status.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,189 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Any evidence for your assertion that the vast majority of first time buyers think HTB is a bad idea? There was a big take up of this scheme



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,619 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    An extra 30k on a 25year mortgage is much *more* impactful than a 30k lump sum, on account of that massive factor called compound interest



  • Administrators Posts: 55,064 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    You cannot budget for it like this unless you are fixing your interest rate for the entirety of the mortgage, and even then, absolutely nobody does this.

    People budget for mortgages based on the monthly cost of the mortgage and 30k over 30 years is going to have an insignificant impact on the monthly cost.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,163 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Small landlords are certainly buying properties in Dublin, I have seen them at viewings making offers and I know of at least 3 buyers in the market, 2 of which are FTBs, that were all outbid by a small landlords.

    Anecdotal examples I know, but there are landlords buying out there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,578 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Isn’t HTB different from FHS in that, even IF the price of the new build went up the full €30k (it won’t because not all potential buyers have access to the €30k, that’s the point of targeting the subsidy)…it doesn’t get added to the mortgage. It’s not a loan like the FHS.

    Perhaps you’re referring to those buying without any grant but still getting the ‘higher price’



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,104 ✭✭✭I see sheep


    I agree totally on all the Irish politicians you mentioned.

    But Trump is no better. What did he do for ordinary Americans last time?

    "a terrible war imposed by the provisional IRA"

    Our West Brit Taoiseach



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,601 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Well he didnt facilitate any new wars while he was there and was actively trying to stop conflict and that to me trumps (forgive the pun) the majority of other president's have done before him. He has already gone and put manners on both Israel and Hamas to give up the war over there…

    Don't get me wrong I don't like the guy I don't believe in some/a lot of his policies but what I do admire is that he campaigned on different issues and took a definitive side and outlined how he was going to go about bringing change and now he is actively going to try and implement them ye know like what our shower of sh1ts in government should be doing. Now can you imagine Mehole Martin coming out and taking the biggest issue that was debated in Ireland and that being the housing crisis and him taking the the approach of doing everything he can to stop the housing crisis and actively perusing a policy for building much more housing and looking at other issues which have had a devastating effect on our housing such as immigration and taking the hard decision to stop people coming in until our housing and other public services have caught up? Not a chance the only hard decisions these boyos will be taking will be how much more money they will waste on the new curtains in the Dail pub and for anything that may be hard to do or may paint them in a bad light they will have a spin of "we will review" or "we will try to build" or "we will set up a group to look into that" yada yada kick the can down the road.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29 Help_to_


    Take up doesn't reflect whether people think it was a good thing to introduce.

    Grants only increase prices of the product. It's the same everywhere with grants. Grant for EV charger installation? Price of that went up dramatically.



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