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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    God just go out and talk to 100 random people and ask them about their experience for housing, a GP, using a hospital, or how many kids have to drop a subject in school due to not having the correct teacher for it the likes of Woodwork and Science are seeing a real drop off for specialist teachers. I can tell you that you will hear it for yourself. Do I have to go and get you numbers like

    Hospital wait times.

    People waiting to get the kids diagnosed for autism.

    Access to services/operations.

    Access to housing.

    Patients on hospital trolly lists

    Homeless list going up.

    Crime rate up

    stats such as no of Gards vs population no of Nurses vs population have all gone backward.

    The likes of SVP having more and more people relying on them for food and other essentials.

    Our spend as a country has ballooned up to support more and more people coming in and this at at a time when our birth rates have significantly slowed.

    Now do yourself a favor (as you have to do a bit of work yourself if you don't believe it) so go out and ask 100 randomers their experience about all of the above you may get 10 people happy with their lot but I reckon 90 out of the 100 will have an issue with one of multiple of the above and also google the items I have listed that is more than enough proof that our public services are faltering due to over subscription. You can stick you head in the sand like our politicians but with Trump already aiming a missile at our corpo taxes (ye know the tax that has us the only country in Europe in a surplus) we could find ourselves in a similar scenario to 2008 when stamp duty hit the skids.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Why is trump a con man you have this wrong the con artists are the lads we vote in - Trump got elected due to what he said he was going to do and he is actually going about doing it which is why there was such a shock that a politician or the top politician in a country actually started getting to work on what they said they were going to do.

    Watch Meehole Martan sit there and after being elected on their strategies on things like housing, infrastructure, cost of living, carers being helped more and a hole plethera of other promises - watch this stick of a man and the rest of con artists in the Dail dilly dally and double speak out of both sides of their mouth without making much of a commitment it will be wording like "we will review" or "we will get that started" yada yada and another government term will come and go without much been done bar maybe the OPW being allowed make it rain again with their spend on the important items like their security huts and their curtains or allowing their buddies in RTE run roughshod over us - if I commit fraud the fraud squad would be all over me - RTE do it and they are given more money. Not to mention the man the government used to broker a deal with the independants Mr. Lowry step up and take a bow. I find it hilarious that most politicians were spouting about the Monk running and not a word about Mr. Lowry.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29 Help_to_


    I always laugh at the "our healthcare, hospitality etc. would collapse without migration".

    Who worked these jobs 30 years ago?

    Maybe we wouldn't need so many migrants working in our hospitals if there wasn't as many migrants living here putting strain on the services and Irish people could afford to rent or buy a home and be happy working these jobs?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,920 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    So no actual empirical evidence to show that migration is killing our ability to function correctly as a society, just more anecdotes, thank you for clarifying.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,073 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Captain contradicto here is bemoaning managers on 70k or 80k while simultaneously saying immigrants working low paid jobs are somehow shutting him out.

    You also mention needing to save 70k for a 'bottom of the market matchbox apartment'. Where are you finding a matchbox apartment for 700k? I have seen nice apartments in Blackrock, Co. Dublin for under 400k.

    The point about HTB is you do not need to have the entire deposit up front.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    I told you to google all of the list I outlined anyone on here who wants to know can google them and the figures speak for themselves if you not prepared to search for yourself then there is no point arguing with you, you have your mind made up even with the proof needed accessible via a simple google search. The phrase you can bring a horse to water comes to mind when dealing with people like yourself.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Is that all you're going to say? He's given you a list of demonstrable issues afflicting Ireland today, all of which may be connected to immigration, and you just call them anecdotes in a rather condescending manner? I think you need to try a bit harder if you want to rebut an argument.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,920 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    You were the one who made the outrageous statement, I asked for your proof for this, it is up to you to provide the evidence to back up your opinion, as without actual evidence, that's all it is, an opinion, not a fact.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Sorry all are connected to our migration policy. Our birth rate has been dropping since 2009 and our increase in population has gone through the roof in the same period so it has to be people coming in via migration that is saturating our services.

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-plfp/populationandlabourforceprojections2023-2057/fertilityassumptions/#:~:text=The%20number%20of%20births%20each,60%2C580%20births%20recorded%20in%202021.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29 Help_to_


    Your figures make no sense.

    I said I am a single buyer.

    I'm not bemoaning managers on 70k or 80k. I'm bemoaning the fact they get a free 30k from HTB when they don't need it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,920 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    They have given a list of issues that they believes are to do with migration, with no actual evidence to back this opinion up.

    I can't argue against empty sentiment with no actual evidence provided to prove that migration has caused the issues they are speaking about.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Welcome to the discussion. IIRC one of the biggest criticisms from a report into effects and efficacy of HTB was exactly your point - the vast majority of those who availed of it did not actually need it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    I have also said anyone who wants the facts can simply google any or all items on the list. If you don't want to do it Gary then don't and even if I took the time to put up links to the numbers its not going to change your mind so why should I bother. Anyone else who isn't too lazy to do some simple internet searching on the list I put the facts are damning about what immigration is doing to our services. Now do I want all immigration stopped - NO I would rather put the onus on our knob ends in government to build, hire, recruit and train to keep pace but until we get those numbers we need to look at the tidle wave of people coming in and bringing it to a standstill until we let our services catch up to the current numbers. God forbid our gombeens in power actually start proactively planning for the future, having said that in fairness when their shelf live is that of a term in office they only see the short term and their own interests. They will invariably kick the can down the road and let the next knob ends who are elected deal with it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    I'd just rather we didn't allow immigration to the point that it adds 80k or so people to the population each year.



  • Administrators Posts: 56,219 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Sorry, but I think you're leaving in dreamworld, or maybe just fundamentally misunderstanding the impact HTB has on the market.

    You are under the impression that getting rid of HTB will allow you to jump the queue ahead of higher earners? I think you're going to have to show your working out here as this makes pretty much no sense at all.

    Crap rolls down hill, if HTB goes then the higher earners simply move down the ladder. When they move down the ladder, guess who gets kicked off the bottom?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Well if the turned the tap off until we caught up and actually built up some reserves in our public services this is how I would go. The issue is our birth rate is dropping - due to a lot of issues like cost of living and how expensive it is to have a kid and work and do it the right way of course our left leaning nature means we have many who have made a career out of being a mum and getting the state to be baby daddy and of course those who cant afford a kid will have to contribute to this via taxation. With that in mind having a strategic migration system like that of Australia where they will only give you a long term visa if you are someone who will be contributing to the tax take and less likely to be gaining from the system. We have way to many welfare tourists and English learning students here and we should be stopping that to begin with and looking at bringing over more skilled workers as they are needed in the short to medium term and it could be longer term if our government persist with things like encouraging all kids to go to college instead of looking at incentivizing lads to go into a trade like plumbing etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    I have put up list to the facts that you can google for yourself or for anyone to google. You are refusing to look at it so no point in arguing with you. So if you want continue saying its my opinion let me flip this argument on its head show me facts that our immigration policy is not damaging to our current levels of public service or even put up a simple list like I did and I will take the time to review it. Good man Gary keep the head in the sand and I looking forward to this list?



  • Administrators Posts: 56,219 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,920 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    Lads this topic is about Irish Property Market, while justifiably it's fine to discuss the impact of immigration on the housing market but you have gone on to talk about societal impact, gp waiting lists, crime stats, the levels of immigration that are acceptable to you etc.

    I don't care that I'll be warned for back seat modding, but go and discuss your opinions on immigration in the dedicated thread and let people who want to discuss the property sector discuss it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29 Help_to_


    Think you need to read my post again.

    I never said I want to jump ahead of anyone. My issue is that high earners who would purchase in any case, are getting free money for no reason.

    I think you are the one deluded if you think a couple on 150k combined will decide to purchase a second hand house for 450k just because they don't get 30k HTB. These high earners have the money sitting in their accounts. If they didn't get HTB they'd just use their savings.

    Just go look at a new estate and see the cars outside them. Are you telling me that these people are stuck for money and would never be able to buy new without the 30k help to buy?

    I think the vast majority of people in this country will agree that if you can afford to get a mortgage on a new build, you don't need help to purchase the new build.

    Saying someone needs HTB to afford a new build is like saying I would need 6 months free tax to afford a 4.0 litre petrol audi A6.

    The fact I would purchase an 4.0 litre petrol Audi A6 is clear evidence I don't need any help to purchase it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    I think we should encourage native population growth. If we got the birthrate to the magical number of 2.1, we would have a steady population, with room to accommodate a small number of upstanding immigrants each year. A fairly stable population would be of benefit for future planning and for the environment, for there would be no need to build tens of thousands of houses each year nor deal with the systemic cost of huge population increases.

    Of course, this would not deliver perpetual GDP growth…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Once again your the one who brought this off topic and making an issue out of a post which has a direct correlation to our mismanaged and dysfunctional property market. You are refusing to look at the information or will not provide your own information to back up your opinion and now your going off on a whinge about getting back to topic. FACT IS - our immigration policy is a large part of the reason why our property market is not functioning correctly. I take it from your lack of a list that you accept the list I put up is in fact/proof of what I was saying.

    In order to heal a patient you have to first look at why the patient is sick and you try and stop the issue at its source instead of tinkering around with their symptoms.

    So applying that to our property sector. One of the main reasons our property market is sick is because of our immigration policy (we simply have not got enough housing to deal with the numbers coming in) and it needs to be tackled along with other issues in order to get the market back to regular base line.

    Post edited by fliball123 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29 Help_to_


    If I can afford to buy a mobile phone for 2,000 euro, then I don't need a 200 euro grant to buy it.

    The fact I would be in the market for a 2,000 euro phone is evidence enough that my earnings are enough so that I can save up the 200 euro myself.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,920 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    A list of opinions is not fact.

    I'm not willing to engage in further discussion immigration and your perceived negative impact it has on society on a property forum.



  • Administrators Posts: 56,219 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    I think the vast majority of people in this country will agree that if you can afford to get a mortgage on a new build, you don't need help to purchase the new build.

    Er, no. Again, I think you don't understand the scheme or why it exists. I am also not sure why you keep talking about new builds as if buying a new build is indicative of incredible wealth. Where on earth have you got this notion?

    As we saw pre-HTB, there were loads of buyers who could easily afford a mortgage on a new build but could not get the deposits together due to high rents.

    The impact of this was these people were stuck renting, driving rent up further. This has a knock on effect on lower earners like yourself, it makes it more difficult for you as well.

    They are not getting free money for no reason. Firstly, it's a tax rebate, so they can only get back what they have contributed. Secondly, as we saw in the past, it is absolutely not for no reason.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    So you wont google the list I put up for facts that back up what I am sayin and this is you engaging in the discussion - REALLY ..

    The list is there for anyone who has the cop on to search for the facts. I wont be engaging with yourself either I could put up endless links supporting my opinions as fact but you will not be swayed and you wont engage by looking for yourself. Good luck



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29 Help_to_


    If HTB was so great, then why did the central bank increase lending limits?

    HTB just increases property prices. And rent is a function of property prices, so HTB is increasing rents too.

    We get it, you're a homeowner who got a free 20 or 30k back to use as a deposit and are sitting pretty with 30% house price increases in the last few years feeling good about yourself that you got in at a good time.

    It says a lot that the vast majority of potential first time buyers think HTB is a bad idea. Increasing supply of money for the same number of housing is inflationary.

    Prices literally jumped overnight when HTB was introduced/increased and will do so again if they increase it.



  • Administrators Posts: 56,219 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    This is a really bad analogy that does not translate to the housing market, phones are not a finite resource.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29 Help_to_


    If you think HTB was introduced to help renters buy, then please answer this question.

    • Why is HTB not available on second hand properties?

    If HTB was extended to 2nd hand properties, I'd get a free 30k and in your view, prices would not increase. Therefore I'd be laughing.

    But I don't want HTB for 2nd hand properties. Because if you put yourself in the shoes of a seller, if the people I'm selling to got an extra 30k overnight to spend, would I….keep my asking price the same? Or would I increase the asking price by 30k?



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  • Administrators Posts: 56,219 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    HTB is not available on second hand properties because it would not increase supply. That is not a difficult question to answer.

    Again, I think you are misguided on what this scheme is intended to do. You keep bringing up "but HTB increased prices" despite it being explained multiple times in the past few pages how this is not significant.



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