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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 288 ✭✭Hontou


    Same in Galway. The docks in Galway include huge empty spaces. Could be used to build houses, apartments, and amenities in a prime city centre location. Bridges could be built across Lough Atalia to relieve associated excess traffic. (These should be built regardless of houses, to relieve traffic.)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,164 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    There are more private buyers that can afford to pay 600k + for a 3 bed in Dublin, than there are 3 beds in Dublin available; regardless of any govt subsidies.

    If there are 50 3 beds available and 100 buyers can afford 600k, then the sale price of the homes will be >=600k.

    That's the market in action.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,164 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Are those areas zoned for planning and have applications been approved to build there?

    It could be that the costs of construction aren't worth the return, since the sale price in Galway is lower than in Dublin.



  • Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 5,580 Mod ✭✭✭✭spockety


    That over simplifies it. Without artificial market supports, it's more likely that people who can afford to pay 600K+ for a house would be competing for 4 beds in nicer areas, not 3 beds.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,673 ✭✭✭hometruths


    And if this level of understanding of the market in action is widespread, which I suspect it might be, then we're definitely in a bubble.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,164 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    What artificial supports enable a buyer to purchase a 600k home?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,164 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    It isn't about levels of understanding, its about paying the price that secures the asset.

    Again, if 100 people can afford 600k+ and there are only 50 homes available, then its likely the homes will sell for over 600k.

    Any one of the buyers can pull out if they dont want to pay more than 600k, but there will be others that will stay in the bidding process and offer more than 600k.

    A house is worth what people are willing to pay for it.

    With record houshold wealth, a growing population and more demand than supply, of course prices will increase, regardless of what the ESRI or anyone else says is the "market" value.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,297 ✭✭✭Allinall


    Parents that sold a second property/ traded down in 2000- 2007 and are sitting on piles of cash.

    There’s a lot of huge, gifted deposits in the housing market these days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,425 ✭✭✭almostover


    There is one major winner from the current situation, the banks. Buyers are borrowing more money than ever to buy homes due to the rising prices. And the same buyers can now borrow more multiples of their salary to chase the same scare hosuing stock. Banks will make far more interest over a longer mortgage term. People are buying homes at an older age with longer mortgage terms. Forget about the pension crises because those in the mid to late 30s buying in Dublin right now won't be able to afford to retire until they're about 75!

    Government decisions have been beyond stupid over the last 5-10 years. Every single decision has driven up house prices. Help to buy, rose house prices. Central bank allowing people to borrow 4.5 times salary, rose house prices. Not putting sensible limits on immigration, more people competing for the same housing stock, rose house prices. Populist rent control measures, rose both rental costs and house prices. The government would be better off doing nothing. Every single measure they have implemented has resulted in rising prices.

    We're looking at a lost generation as a result.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    "Government decisions have been beyond stupid over the last 5-10 years. Every single decision has driven up house prices"

    The policies of the state were not stupid. They were aimed at doing precisely what they have done; driving up property and rent prices. Be under no illusion that any of this was an accident. A system is what it does, not what it's said to do.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,558 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    One hundred percent! Lets look at some of the big advantages of immigration, from a government perspective… Look like they are doing the morally right thing? CHECK! bringing in cheap labour ? CHECK Driving up property prices? CHECK Creating 1.8 billion euro for their mates in high places… CHECK

    "Earlier this year, a Business Post investigation found that more than 800 companies and businesses were paid €1.8 billion by the government to provide accommodation and other services to Ukrainians and those in Ipas…"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,558 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Get your 3rd level education or trade here, live abroad, for several reasons, have a bit of a laugh, then get the head down, earn far higher salaries than you would here and pay far less tax, as a mid to high earner. If you do want to settle, you come back to the banana republic and simply buy a place outright…

    I was out on saturday chatting to my mates younger brother, (going to hopefully graduate this summer) he gets E14 an hour, thats for a 12 hour shift, including working saturdays… If he stays living in dublin, lets say E800 rent for houseshare, E200 bills… OR you go to mini ireland in the sun, have a phenomenal life experience, earn far more money and have a far higher standard of living and life…

    You know exactly what you are getting if you stay in Ireland… dont act shocked..



  • Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 5,580 Mod ✭✭✭✭spockety


    Hmm, I'm not sure if you're being funny or not.

    You do realize that the kind of supports that allow someone who can only afford a 250k home to in fact buy a home for 350k has a knock on impact the entire way up the market?

    It's not that it enables a buyer to buy a 600k property, it's that it distorts what 600k would buy you.

    Post edited by spockety on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,164 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    That isn't an artificial support. It's money passed to younger generations by those that worked and earnt it.

    Nothing wrong with supporting your family.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,164 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The bank lending caps are 4 x salary for first time buyers and 3.5 for 2nd buyers.

    Not unreasonable lending levels in fairness.

    House prices are impacted by the net wealth of the nation, which has never been higher and now stands at over a trillion euro.

    The number of households earning 100k or more doubled in 2 years, from 2022 to 2024 and will be approaching 400 thousand households now.

    A lot of people have a lot of spending power.

    Couple this with low housing supply & strong job creation and of course you will see house prices rise in desirable areas.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,164 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    So the subsidy does not enable the buyer to purchase the 600k home then.

    It might push the price of said home from 500k to 600k, but it does not help the purchaser buy the property; meaning they can afford to pay it anyway.



  • Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 5,580 Mod ✭✭✭✭spockety


    I'm not sure what point you're making.

    If you can't see that market interference in one segment of the market impacts what happens in a different segment of the same market in a slightly different way, then I don't know what to say.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,164 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    If HTB and other subsidies didnt exist lower down the market, the asking price for the 600k home would probably be a little cheaper; lets say 500k to 550k.

    However, there are still only 50 3 beds in the area and there are still 100 buyers wanting to move to the area and they are all still capable of paying 600k+.

    The removal of subsidies lower down the chain doesnt impact the 100 buyers budget in the slightest.

    The 500k home is still going to sell for near 600k, potentially even higher, regardless of the reduded asking price, because thats what the market can afford to pay.

    We see plenty examples of houses going 100k plus above asking and these buyers are receiving no govt supports.

    If you want to bring prices down and in the absence of reduced demand, increased supply is the only answer.

    In our example, if there were 100 homes for the 100 buyers and the homes were priced at 500k to 550k, they would be much more likely to sell at that price, not the 600k we see when there are only 50 homes available for purchase.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,164 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Old KBC headquarters in D2 is also being turned into IPA accommodation it seems.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 703 ✭✭✭GalwayGaillimh


    I see in the new program for government the Shared Equity Scheme is going to be expanded to second hand homes surely surely this will make prices for second hand apartments and homes jump , should be called the help to outbid scheme…

    Si Deus Nobiscum Qui Contra Nos



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd




  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,673 ✭✭✭hometruths


    But no doubt you'll still get plenty of people arguing that these schemes are not inflationary, not least the housing minister.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,578 ✭✭✭DataDude


    I have argued that the existing buyer supports have minimal inflationary impact (indeed any reasonable analysis of the numbers would almost guarantee this).

    I think this will undoubtedly be inflationary simply as it will be possible to apply to a vastly higher proportion of houses than any of the existing schemes. I’m on the fence on the schemes to date, probably marginally in favour of them in the round (particularly HTB, more neutral on FHS)…even I think this decision is a bad one!



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,673 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I wasn't targeting you with the comment, despite our disagreement on the point! There are plenty of people who argue the supports are not inflationary. Importantly, IMO, both Central Bank and ESRI have published analysis that the existing supports are inflationary, so I'd disagree with the statement "any reasonable analysis" would guarantee they are not inflationary.

    Over and above that arguement to date, these extensions perfectly illustrate my problem with the supports from day one - the initial introduction of 30k HTB was just the the thin end of the wedge. Once govt starts supporting the market, it is next to impossible to wean the market off the support.

    Hence extending HTB instead of credit for tax paid to credit for rent paid etc, and FHS to second hand homes.

    And the extensions will continue, as the more they are extended, the more inflationary they become, and the more support that is required. It is a vicious circle.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Why not keep going and say that someone on the dole is paying tax every time they buy something in the economy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 629 ✭✭✭Ozvaldo


    Immigration has resulted in prices going through the roof and the hopes of lots of local people are gone aswell as social cohesion-thanks to the government



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,164 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Someone working for an MNC is working and paying income tax.

    Someone on the dole is not working and paying no income tax.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,164 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    We need more housing for everyone, which is happening slowly, as we see the number of new homes built increase.

    We also need more workers to fill the jobs and there is nothing stopping local people upskilling and getting a higher paid job to move themselves onto the housing ladder.

    Its not as it the opportunites arent there for people. Funding for education is available as well.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,673 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I think this will undoubtedly be inflationary simply as it will be possible to apply to a vastly higher proportion of houses than any of the existing schemes.

    Thinking about this a little further I suspect it may not be a case of blanket extension across all second hand homes in same price brackets as existing scheme. It may be phased in for more recent builds or transactions.

    Eg - it applies to any property built since 2019.

    From governments point of view this can achieve the main objective of ensuring prices paid since 2019 are supported somewhat and also allows some argument that the scheme is not inflationary.

    It also provides further room to expand scheme as and when required.

    Will certainly be interesting to see the details.



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