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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,619 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    1hr each way though common, it is not "a bit of travel to work".

    2hrs of your day 5 days a week is a significant amount of time. You would want to be getting paid more to justify the commute



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,298 ✭✭✭Blut2


    10 hours a week of commuting is approaching 10% of a weekly waking life (only about 110hrs a week).

    Going to complete waste - you're not doing something you enjoy, you're not doing something healthy, and you're not getting paid for it. Its just costing you time, effort and money.

    That would be quite bad somewhere like NYC or London, but even more-so in a "relatively small city". Thats not a commute anyone should be doing in a small city with any sort of functioning housing market.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,153 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    We mean govt subsidies, not subsidies from the employer themselves.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Very good point. I used to spend 90 mins a day in the car to and from work. I used the time to listen to podcasts and things that would be useful, but there's only so much that can be done.

    These days, I work from home most of the time. However, that presents its own issues as I spend all day alone in the house, which is not good for the head. There are a lot of people who are in very unhealthy working situations due to the housing/population problem.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭Villa05


    An 18 month old IDA client assesment of Ireland. An interesting template for a government with Ireland's best interests as a priority where they might get ideas for competiveness improvement.

    Time for government to at least stop being a major part of the problem in planning, hosing availability and affordability

    20250103_004407.jpg

    https://x.com/GTCost/status/1874912505572839482?t=DuAsqNrBlfDYcmQUBHMM-Q&s=19



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    "The only real way out is to build…"

    With respect, I think that this line is simply years out of date. There are building sites up and down the country, and just trying to get a builder to do a job is very difficult. In spite of this, only around 30-40k houses are built each year. It would seem to me that this is simply the limit that can be delivered.

    I don't like to keep saying the same thing, but to me, the only viable way to improve the housing situation is to address immigration, and that probably isn't enough anymore.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,298 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Incentives could also be used to re-route some construction capacity from office and other commercial projects to housing, if the government were so inclined. And the same for re-routing capacity from home improvement construction work to house building.

    And the planning (and particularly objections) process could and should be streamlined ASAP.

    That combined could probably increase housing numbers by 25-35% or so anyway, and get us up to about 50k per year very quickly.

    But beyond that yeah, reducing demand by reducing our out of control rapid population growth is the only (comparatively) easy solution that could be done that would have a near instant, and significant, impact on the housing crisis. While also not costing a cent (actually saving billions of tax payer euros..), as a bonus.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,206 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    Quite right to point to immigration as something that needs addressing but the poster, I think, is correct in suggesting more efficient building methods and tax incentives to assemble modular homes in Ireland. A balanced approach is what is needed, imo.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,153 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    How would you address immigration though? What policies would we bring in to give us a balanced immigration level?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,153 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    We should see those 2 things happen this year, as commercial construction has flatlined and there will be a diversion of resource to residential.

    This is one of the reasons the govt are confident of breaking the 40k new homes mark this year.

    The new planning act also comes into effect, which will make judicial reviews much more difficult to implement and will help shut down a lot of nimby protests about new homes being built.

    We stil need immigration to provide services, maintain MNC jobs and so forth; so limiting it is a balancing act.

    We are at full employment with job vacancies everywhere. We need workers.

    BusConnects, as an example, looks like being delayed yet again because we dont have enough drivers and we havent had enough drivers for literally years.

    Every bar, cafe, hospital, retail store in Dublin is crying out for staff.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,153 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    How would you deliver a balanced immigration policy, considering the number of open job vacancies in the country?

    We clearly need more workers to provide essential services.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,298 ✭✭✭Blut2


    We need qualified, skilled, workers who will actually work.

    Unqualified immigrants, some of whom don't even speak English, are not helping the housing crisis by sitting in housing, at great cost to the state and Irish tax payers, not working.

    Its completely possible to tailor immigration to maximise the former, and minimize the latter.

    You still tying to equate all immigration as being the same, and all as needed, is either you being deliberately obtuse or pushing a very damaging bias.

    ie for example:

    employment123.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,153 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    I am not pushing any bias, just asking what kind of policies we could implement to bring in the workers and not the non-workers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,298 ✭✭✭Blut2


    You've been told that repeatedly in this thread - copy Denmark's asylum policies to reduce the numbers of asylum seekers arriving by 90%, reduce the numbers of non-EU lower income / less skilled / less essential work visas issued (the starting point for them currently is €33k pa, barely above minimum wage), and reduce the numbers of non-EU student visas greatly for a start.

    It would be possible to shave off 30k-50k a year arrivals with very minimal negative economic impact (quite the opposite in fact..), and none whatsoever on housing sector building capacity. That would effectively be adding tens of thousands of housing units a year to our output.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,206 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    With regard to employment, we went from one extreme to the other. Back in the 80's there was high unemployment but if you did have a job, you could afford accommodation. Now we have full employment and even labour shortages, but most of those jobs don't get you a decent place to live. I would say this is also a bad situation.

    Now no one is saying we go back to the 80's but a case can be made for some sort of balance in the economy.

    It starts with asking ourselves exactly what the benefit is to society of a lot of these jobs. For example, it is a lot easier to get takeaways of various types delivered to your door and the variety is much greater than in the past, but how much does society benefit from this service, particularly given that the delivery people, the cooks and and associated workers need a place to live and there's a chronic housing shortage. Maybe we can do without some of these in return for cheaper and more widely available housing?

    Another example might be office cleaners. Sure, if we were to reduce unskilled immigration into the country, there would be fewer people willing to do these jobs and wages might have to rise to attract people. This would mean that corporations would have to pay more for their cleaning services, relatively speaking. But these costs are negligible compared with their other costs such as marketing and product development.

    And even the large multinational corporations that have moved here. I'm not suggesting we get rid of them but I would question whether increasing their presence would be good for the country. Increasing their presence would put further pressure on housing and services and may not be to the overall benefit of the people. Yes it would increase GDP and the Government's tax take and those are good things but I think the mistake we've been making is thinking they are the only consideration.

    The sort of immigration we should perhaps be looking at is people who will benefit society as a whole. For example, we might be short of medical expertise in a particular area and consequently people have to travel abroad to get proper treatment for certain illnesses. Here, it would be beneficial to society to have a consultant with that particular expertise brought in.

    Another example might be people expert in the quick and cheap assembly of modular housing that has been manufactured abroad. Again, an immediate benefit to society.

    Again, I am not taking about doing away with all other types of immigration but I think gradually our policies need to start changing direction. Just because the market can take more people at minimum wage level does not mean it should.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,153 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Asylum seekers are less than 20k of the 150k immigrants that arrive each year, but lets say the tougher conditions mean we only get 10k.

    Low skilled jobs doesnt mean low value. If nobody from the EU is filling jobs in hospitals, retail, hospitality and care, then we need people from outside the EU.

    We could reduce the numbers of non EU students, but how many are there and what impact would it have on the overall immigration numbers?

    Maybe we could reduce immigration by 30k annually with the above approach. My main concern would be the low skilled jobs going unfilled and the impact to public services.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,153 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Diecouraging MNCs and the employment they bring would be the last thing we should be doing.

    If those jobs go, they are very difficult to get back. Our best educated youth will then follow those jobs out of the door and wont be quick in coming back to Ireland.

    We have done the hard part by attracting and retaining the MNCs; accommodating the employees should be the easy part.

    We need to build more homes! That should be the focus: Not focussing on cutting employment opportunities for irish citizens, simply because we havent built enough houses to accommodate the population.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,557 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    I believe housing completions, unbelievably, are to fall... this housing emergency for some, is get a richer scheme for those in power, that's why it will get worse for some and better for others. Prices are still rising at an alarming rate... at this stage your best bet, is to get yourself on the housing list as soon as you can if you're young and get as good as free housing, or pay e2400 a month for your one bed apartment in certain areas of Dublin, that are as good as free if you're in social housing …

    If they were serious about housing, they would actually put a freeze on commercial development, for at least 2 years, no more data centers, divert available resources to housing and hotel etc.

    If they wanted to increase supply, here you go, for example , you crane one of these or a larger one, onto an existing site, that is serviced, the definition of sustainable, won't happen though, no money in it to gouge out of working people for decades...

    Post edited by Idbatterim on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,557 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Here's a solution, maintenance free. Factory built, highly insulated... crane it in, hook up to services , done...

    https://www.donedeal.ie/gardensheds-for-sale/garden-room-portable-cabin-portable-office/33944179

    https://www.donedeal.ie/gardensheds-for-sale/garden-room-portable-cabin-portable-office/37032336

    https://www.donedeal.ie/gardensheds-for-sale/garden-room-portable-cabin-portable-office/37032336



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭Villa05




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,153 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The article isn't saying completions will fall in 2025 or 2026, it is saying commencements will slow this year and next because of the large uptick in commencements at the end of 2024, brought on by a tax incentive deadline in December 2024.

    Completions this year should top 40k for the first time since the tiger days and then increase further in 2026.

    Also note that one of the challenges faced by the construction industry, according to CIF, is labour shortage.

    We continue to see labour shortages in almost all industries, despite the levels of immigration into the country.

    How do we ensure we increase employment in the construction industry, as well as other essential public services, during periods of net immigration?

    Not all of these vacancies are "skilled" roles. We need more people to fill all skill level jobs, not just degree/third level employment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,153 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Modular homes could well be part of the solution. Is planning an issue with these?

    The govt have touted similar solutions for IPAS for a few years now, but I dont think many have actually been delivered. Why not?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,153 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    2nd and 3rd on the list are a food processing company and a care facility.

    Proves the point again that employment from overseas is not just about high skilled roles.

    If companies cant fill their jobs with Irish/EU citizens, they do need to look globally for staff.

    This applies to all skill level roles.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,557 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    If You put up one of these on your land, max 25 square metre without PP, you're not meant to live in them. I.e they shouldn't have a bathroom and kitchen. Worst case, you get inspected and they tell you to take out bathroom or kitchen. What are they going to do, put a guard outside every night, to make sure it's not going to be lived in? Lol...

    Those scum, create a depraved situation and then tell you what they will and won't permit. You dont ask in this country, you do. Several of my mates have these up on their parents property in Dublin. Ten thousand saved a year minimum in south Dublin, to live in a **** house share. They can be craned in and out and sold at any time, used as garden room , gym, rented out.. they are a brilliant investment...

    These modern small homes are luxury compared to many of the **** hole rooms in rented houses... I should know, I am frequently in these dumps as part of my job.

    But look, don't listen to me, go put, spend hundreds of thousands in rent from your early twenties on, into your late 30's /40' s etc.. be a walking poverty case and bow to your government overlords...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,578 ✭✭✭DataDude


    I don’t work in the sector but from the outside I’d heard a lot of doom and gloom around the IT sector here in 2024.

    This paints a very a positive picture if permits are up 2023.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,126 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    This is really bad advice, and shouldn't be allowed here as it will cost someone alot of money, if you're going to build a shed in your back yard to live in you will require planning permission.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,153 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    It depends on where the permits are going. I think people assume IT, but 2nd and 3rd on that list are a food processing plant and a care home.

    Both of those businesses issued more permits than Google, Intel, Microsoft or Meta...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,153 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Having a legal pathway for modular homes to be accepted and pass planning requirements is the key, if we want modular to be part of the national housing solution.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Do we know if jobs in I.T. grew or rather the skills gap grew.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,557 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    a shed is what you store your lawnmower it etc… It will amaze you, but these structures, low and behold, are built from steel, timber, they use the exact same building materials, that are used in houses… believe it or not, they dont create special "shed" materials…

    What is your advice, given you reject this? Live at home long into adulthood? house share in a kip for a fortune, blowing through tens of thousands before you realise, "oh ****, this is actually a serious probem that I should have considered much sooner?"…emigrate?live in a tent?



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