Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

How would you deliver a balanced immigration policy, considering the number of open job vacancies in the country?

We clearly need more workers to provide essential services.

I am not pushing any bias, just asking what kind of policies we could implement to bring in the workers and not the non-workers.

With regard to employment, we went from one extreme to the other. Back in the 80's there was high unemployment but if you did have a job, you could afford accommodation. Now we have full employment and even labour shortages, but most of those jobs don't get you a decent place to live. I would say this is also a bad situation.

Now no one is saying we go back to the 80's but a case can be made for some sort of balance in the economy.

It starts with asking ourselves exactly what the benefit is to society of a lot of these jobs. For example, it is a lot easier to get takeaways of various types delivered to your door and the variety is much greater than in the past, but how much does society benefit from this service, particularly given that the delivery people, the cooks and and associated workers need a place to live and there's a chronic housing shortage. Maybe we can do without some of these in return for cheaper and more widely available housing?

Another example might be office cleaners. Sure, if we were to reduce unskilled immigration into the country, there would be fewer people willing to do these jobs and wages might have to rise to attract people. This would mean that corporations would have to pay more for their cleaning services, relatively speaking. But these costs are negligible compared with their other costs such as marketing and product development.

And even the large multinational corporations that have moved here. I'm not suggesting we get rid of them but I would question whether increasing their presence would be good for the country. Increasing their presence would put further pressure on housing and services and may not be to the overall benefit of the people. Yes it would increase GDP and the Government's tax take and those are good things but I think the mistake we've been making is thinking they are the only consideration.

The sort of immigration we should perhaps be looking at is people who will benefit society as a whole. For example, we might be short of medical expertise in a particular area and consequently people have to travel abroad to get proper treatment for certain illnesses. Here, it would be beneficial to society to have a consultant with that particular expertise brought in.

Another example might be people expert in the quick and cheap assembly of modular housing that has been manufactured abroad. Again, an immediate benefit to society.

Again, I am not taking about doing away with all other types of immigration but I think gradually our policies need to start changing direction. Just because the market can take more people at minimum wage level does not mean it should.

Diecouraging MNCs and the employment they bring would be the last thing we should be doing.

If those jobs go, they are very difficult to get back. Our best educated youth will then follow those jobs out of the door and wont be quick in coming back to Ireland.

We have done the hard part by attracting and retaining the MNCs; accommodating the employees should be the easy part.

We need to build more homes! That should be the focus: Not focussing on cutting employment opportunities for irish citizens, simply because we havent built enough houses to accommodate the population.

Here's a solution, maintenance free. Factory built, highly insulated... crane it in, hook up to services , done...

https://www.donedeal.ie/gardensheds-for-sale/garden-room-portable-cabin-portable-office/33944179

https://www.donedeal.ie/gardensheds-for-sale/garden-room-portable-cabin-portable-office/37032336

https://www.donedeal.ie/gardensheds-for-sale/garden-room-portable-cabin-portable-office/37032336

The article isn't saying completions will fall in 2025 or 2026, it is saying commencements will slow this year and next because of the large uptick in commencements at the end of 2024, brought on by a tax incentive deadline in December 2024.

Completions this year should top 40k for the first time since the tiger days and then increase further in 2026.

Also note that one of the challenges faced by the construction industry, according to CIF, is labour shortage.

We continue to see labour shortages in almost all industries, despite the levels of immigration into the country.

How do we ensure we increase employment in the construction industry, as well as other essential public services, during periods of net immigration?

Not all of these vacancies are "skilled" roles. We need more people to fill all skill level jobs, not just degree/third level employment.

2nd and 3rd on the list are a food processing company and a care facility.

Proves the point again that employment from overseas is not just about high skilled roles.

If companies cant fill their jobs with Irish/EU citizens, they do need to look globally for staff.

This applies to all skill level roles.

I don’t work in the sector but from the outside I’d heard a lot of doom and gloom around the IT sector here in 2024.

This paints a very a positive picture if permits are up 2023.

It depends on where the permits are going. I think people assume IT, but 2nd and 3rd on that list are a food processing plant and a care home.

Both of those businesses issued more permits than Google, Intel, Microsoft or Meta...

Do we know if jobs in I.T. grew or rather the skills gap grew.

These units are allowed in the US and Australia, no doubt in far more countries, but I came across those countries when I was researching it on youtube. Read about the huge numbers of benefits they bring. But they have one collossal downside. You would put a serious dent in demand and allow people to house themselves for next to nothing… That is why they wont permit them here. There is no money in it for the big boys…

A good question. Other European countries have already done this though limiting illegal immigration. Whilst is only a small amount of the total number of immigrants arriving here, it would be a good start. Beyond that, and working within the law, I'm sure that a lot could be done to limit or actively discourage immigration from non-EU nationals.

I'll fully admit that I'm not an expert on what is or isn't legally possible in this regard, but I do not accept the premise that 150k* people will arrive here from overseas each year and that nothing can be done to limit this number.

*this is the total figure that comprises all legal and illegal immigration, including returning Irish citizens. To avoid a repeat of a recent misunderstanding, I am not suggesting barring Irish citizens from entering or indeed anything that breaks the law.

Agreed that there are some forces at play that dont want to see large scale modular homes built.

However, modular developments on the outskirts of towns; or even new, smaller, modular settlements, away from existing towns, should be achievable.

There will be a two tier housing market. Modular homes will not cost or resell at the same level standard homes in established areas do, but they could certianly help alleviate the housing crisis.

Approx 65k europeans (including irish citizens) arrived, but approx 48k of the same grouping left.

There is only a net increase of approx 17k amongst this cohort, for the entire country.

Approx 21k non EU nationals & IPAs/Ukranians also left during the 12 months to April 2024, which offsets the approx 85k that arrived down to a net increase of approx 65k.

The other approx 20k increase is natural, births vs deaths.

We can see that the largest net increase comes from the non-eu narionals and IPAs, but it is difficult to find a comparison that shows the composition of that 65k increase.

How many work permit holders left, vs the 40k that arrived, for example.

How many Ukranians left and how many arrived?

How many IPAs left vs the 20k that arrived?

I cant find any of those comparisons.

I didnt say that.

I said the 105k returning irish, europeans and work permit holders will be broadly welcomed, because they are delivering employment and services to the country.

This group does not constitute a net increase of 105k people anyway, since 50k - 70k of the same grouping left the country during the same period.