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Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed. **Threadbans lifted - see OP**

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    Give me a break - it was obvious the so called “expert” was assuming they knew each other - the scenario you’re describing there is a complete loner who will have very obvious psychological issues that will prevent them from interacting in normal day to day life - Bailey got a law degree post Sophie’s murder - you don’t get one of those being a complete loo-lah



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 558 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    If you bothered to read my replies you would have already got your answer, including the one you are responding to:

    "I'm not 100% convinced it's from the perpetrator, but I'm more than 50% convinced."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,861 ✭✭✭Day Lewin


    It would be criminally irresponsible to rule out the importance of unidentified male DNA found on the clothing of a murder victim.

    DNA on a shoe?

    I'm looking at my old runners right now, and trying to imagine how any male fluid of any kind could have got onto them.

    Lying beside my husband's shoes inside the back door? Possibly at the gym where somebody's sweat might have….no, I'm sure that never happened, I'm never that near to a sweaty exerciser.

    On the plane and the passenger beside her coughed all over them?

    But these were Sophie's old shoes that were left at the cottage and used as impromptu casual footwear, according to someone who stayed there, if I recall. Not likely to have been coughed or sneezed on by anyone. Her husband, boyfriend and family have been ruled out - this DNA is unidentified.

    Possibly someone who was AT the cottage had reason to handle them - say, a fellow mending the pipes might have had to pick them up to move them out of the way (imagining wildly here)

    Oh yes. This DNA really does need to be amplified and if at all possible, identified.

    Irrelevant? I think not.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    Given the vast databases of DNA- this persons distant relatives at least are known at this stage



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 42,843 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    I don't think anyone is saying that it's a smoking gun but it still remains a key piece of evidence that needs explanation.

    As it remains the only non-Sophie DNA found at a crime scene, it would be criminal not to follow up on it. It may, as you say, be an innocent trace but then again it may be the only actual clue to identifying the murderer that exists.

    I'd also suggest that given how well worn the boots are, it would be surprising if that sample (circled below) was an old one...

    17356875221975656596755209083475.jpg

    Edit: including a link to Phil Mathers article on the testing of the DNA sample

    https://www.reddit.com/r/MurderAtTheCottage/comments/vraf9q/forensic_tests_on_the_body_exhibits_and_crime/



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,861 ✭✭✭Day Lewin


    Now that was a very fascinating and relevant read. Thank you @Seth Brundle!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    A test will be administered later today - 75% pass mark 😀

    Yeah it was good alright - maybe I missed it but is there anyway for them to determine more about the “male” sample - potential nationality for example?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 460 ✭✭Rooks


    I went down the rabbit hole with that sub Reddit. The more I look into it, the less plausible it seems that Bailey did it, despite how suspicious his behaviour was. If he just kept his head down and his mouth shut during the whole thing it would have just blown over for him. He only has himself to blame for that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 962 ✭✭✭flanna01


    Bailey couldn't resist the limelight.

    Assuming that he was innocent of the crime, and knew 100% there was nothing ever going to link him to the crime sceme.. I suggest that Bailey played on this gift from the Gods, and milked it for every last drop he could get..

    1. Suddenly, Bailey is hot property in the world of media reporting, he is the go to man at the crime scene (No more gutting fish and doing handy man garden chores for beer money)
    2. Bailey knows he is innocent - he knows he cant be tied to the murder (simply wasn't him) - Hence he strides around town with his head held high, and pounding the bodhran at night to the amazment of onlookers.
    3. The national & international news agency's are all over the place - His name is resounding across Europe and further afield. This is his ticket to the big time.
    4. As popular opinion started to ramp up Bailey as the chief suspect, Bailey seen this as an insurance policy. Once his name had been tarnished by enough news agency's, he'd pull the trigger and sue the lot of them.
    5. With nothing but weak circumstantial shananigans against him, and the patsy Marie Farrell being groomed by the Gards, Bailey had to keep himself relevant to the investigation - Hence always stirring up the pot with his soundbytes .etc..

    Bailey was a nasty piece of work. i suggest that he felt a lot of self hatred towards himself? He seen himself as a rising journalist that was going places, instead he was doing mundane jobs for the locals for some beer money.

    However, Bailey was clever, he wasn't going to miss an opportunity like this. At the time of the murder, Detective Dyer was the main man, a man not blessed with brains by any standard.. And I have no doubt Bailey could play him like a violin, and did so accordingly.

    Bailey stayed around because he could smell the money. And being a nasty piece of work, it didn't matter if it was made off the back of a dead french mother.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭Gussie Scrotch




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,861 ✭✭✭Day Lewin


    There are many who think that journalism is a squalid trade. They make a living from news, often bad news: people seem to be willing to pay more for gory details!

    Then again, if you're a hack journo who finds yourself right next door to the scene of a murder, who could resist writing about it? You'd hurry over there, notebook and camera at the ready.

    "Our man on the spot"…it was a sweet spot indeed, for a few short weeks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,296 ✭✭✭chooseusername


    Paul Dettmann, AKA "The Crime Guy", has done a review of "The Blow-in" by Ger Comisky. I haven't read the book, but it sounds like a fairly balanced view. Bailey is obviously the Blow-in in the title, so needless to say it's mostly about him.

    https://www.crimeguy.com/p/review-the-blow-in?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-restack-comment&r=jud2b&triedRedirect=true



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 856 ✭✭✭csirl


    Pschology opinions are not evidence and are not used in Irish courts. A psychologist is also NOT a psychiatrist and so cannot diagnose someone as having a pscyhiatric condition. Anyway, how could this guy even give an opinion without ever meeting Bailey?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 42,843 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    I was wondering this earlier - presumably his opinion was based on what details AGS gave him 🙄



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    I would have thought such knowledge is very useful in terms of creating a profile of the killer when unknown- but that’s where it ends - neither a psychologist nor psychiatrist can make the leap from a potential psychological profile of a killer to the realm of “the profile matches, ergo Bailey is the killer”- but that’s what appears to be happening here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,321 ✭✭✭Field east


    I am no detective but everything points to it having been a ‘ local job’ for whatever reason. I assume that Sophia’s visiting schedule to her West Cork bolthold has always been unpredictable - including not visiting the place every Christmas . So:-

    (1)Her house seems to be very secluded and not easy to find - up a bohereen, windy and longish.

    (2) she would have told very, very few people that she was visiting West Cork at that time

    (3) it is highly, highly unlikely that it was a botched ‘event’ carried out by someone from Belgium, Belfast Dunlop Dublin, Wexford. Or from wherever - given it wring West Cork, the area being very secluded , away off the byroad serving it, Sophia’ s unannounced and infrequent visits to the house.

    (4) most opportunists that want to steal from / ransack a house ,steer clear of one that’s occupied/a car outside/ with CCTV,etc


    So all of the above points to someone that had all of the above knowledge available to them and they would have to be local to be familiar with all of them OR they may be living away from the area - even from ,eg, France- but they would have to be extremely ‘briefed’ on all of the above and would have spent some time in the area - scouting it



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    I would tend to agree it’s a local too - while Bailey should remain a suspect I do think the person who committed suicide a few months later having said he did a “terrible thing” or words to that effect is, in my mind, someone who should have been front and center for investigation. He’s still totally innocent in the eyes of the law and indeed the public, but it’s such a strange thing to happen it has to be properly and fully investigated.

    I’m not convinced it was a neighbour and a row over a gate being left open - the level of violence was just too great - an assault yes, but not murder.

    whilst it could be some druggie dealer caught rapid, again such people would generally not wish to stick around and I don’t think they would kill a member of the public so viciously -maybe today they would but I don’t think so in this case.

    I’ve never gone for the massive conspiracies of a contract killing etc - but the husband not appearing in Ireland to bring home his wife’s remains, especially considering his wealth, does justifiably in my view, leave him open to scrutiny .

    What I don’t want to see is a “it was probably Bailey” outcome for this review - I treasure our justice system bad and all as it can be sometimes, but all concerned deserve better than that after nearly 30 years



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    And it’s why “it’s probably Bailey” is just not good enough at this stage



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,640 ✭✭✭Xander10


    I often wonder what conversations the Gardai had with the family that made them 100% convinced it was him. It can't have just been the circumstantial evidence that is in the public domain



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 460 ✭✭Rooks


    But that's what AGS will do. They will only serve their own interests as usual. It's not about justice for them, it's about politics.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,296 ✭✭✭chooseusername


    Most of the letter could be to an unknown killer, but this part would appear to be directed at Bailey-

    “And today you live in peace, free, without regrets. There’s an arrogant, contemptuous look in your eyes, the look of a predator looking forward to his next victim. Your whole life has been one of cowardice and perversity."

    But it could also be directed at Daniel or Bruno. Georges Bouniol was less vociferous than the rest of the family when it came to Ian Bailey.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    I don’t know so I’ll bow to your better knowledge of him - but it’s probably immaterial - essentially he’s addressing the killer of his daughter - as a father, he’d obviously be listening carefully to what the official policing body of a European country has to say - - in this case Ireland and the Gardai- I guess we’d do similar if in that position - but speaking personally, no matter how reassured I might be with their words to me, if the evidence didn’t stack up I’d always have some doubt that they had the right person



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 558 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    Who actually did converse with the family. Did they have a political handler from the Irish side, or did they meet with an individual Garda handler etc., or was it just a French political intermediary?

    Obviously in the very early days, they would have had to get briefings about progress from someone, but once the gards honed in on Bailey, from then on whatever way they got their information, it appeared to be only that which pointed to Bailey.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,270 ✭✭✭Wompa1


    To be fair, even without listening to the Gardaí it had been reported that he confessed/bragged about murdering her while drunk on multiple occasions and played it off as dark humor. The family thinking it was him is not surprising or even misguided. The prick kept himself in the frame the entire time. He may not have been guilty of the murder but he was far from innocent. People thinking or saying he did it, is seemingly in keeping with what he wanted.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 668 ✭✭✭highpitcheric


    We're not in court. We're on a website.

    Of course a psychologist is not a psychiatrist, thats already obvious, thats why they have 2 different titles.

    A psychologist may diagnose a mental disorder.

    A psychiatrist may also diagnose a mental disorder.

    If two psychologists and a psychiatrist, working in two separate teams, on two separate occasions reach a similar conclusion then its probably going to be a good indicator of whats going on.

    If the individual in question displays classic symptoms of that same condition its also an indicator.

    Baileys rather graphic diaries (including references to his bisexuality, drug use and prior desire to kill his wife) along with his criminal history and police records and his public interviews were used.

    And yes I know, this is not conclusive proof of anything other than the fact itself, and its not meant to be.

    Its not meant to be taken as conclusive proof. Its meant to put some focus on a pertinent fact, which was a bit neglected til now. In psychological terms Bailey was a rare individual and an incredibly good fit for a crime like this. Thats a fact. Anyone who considers themselves logical will either have good reason to dispute this fact, or will simply accept it.

    Bailey had a borderline personality" based on "narcissism, psycho-rigidity, violence, impulsiveness, egocentricity with an intolerance to frustration and a great need for recognition".

    • Psychiatrist Jean Michel Masson and psychologist Katy Lorenzo-Regreny


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 460 ✭✭Rooks


    Who cares what a couple of people playing speculative psychology think? It gets us no closer to answering the question who who killed Sophie. It's a load of speculative nonsense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 668 ✭✭✭highpitcheric


    It may come as a shock but you're not actually going to get conclusive proof for this famous unsolved case in a forum.

    What you can do is keep going around in circles, bringing up this or that, and then having someone chime in with 'but its not proof'. Of course its not proof. If we had actual proof there would be no thread, or we'd have details about how gardai had closed the case.

    Rather than go around in a circle you can just go deeper into relevant aspects, without thinking you're going to solve anything (because youre not going to), and simply discuss the known facts. Maybe bring up any facts which others havent yet mentioned. That is at least informative, entertaining. Which is the best youre going to get.

    This is a place for speculation, is it not?

    Bailey had a borderline personality" based on "narcissism, psycho-rigidity, violence, impulsiveness, egocentricity with an intolerance to frustration and a great need for recognition".

    • Psychiatrist Jean Michel Masson and psychologist Katy Lorenzo-Regreny


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 558 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    interesting that you use his private diaries as some sort of indication of guilt, when it would have been the perfect opportunity for him to actually just have written about the crime itself.

    We don’t need a certified psychologist/psychiatrist to get an understanding of his nature. He was arrested for beating the crap out of Jules, even before the murder, he could have killed her if a punch landed in the wrong place, or she fell awkward etc. This is the reality of the prick that was Ian Bailey. This is the reality that one needs to consider when looking at the case as a whole.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 668 ✭✭✭highpitcheric


    no, ive never used the word "guilt" in any connection to anyone in the case.

    indeed you don't need a psychologist to understand he was an essentially violent abusive man.

    but if you have a basic understanding of narcissistic disorder you will see things in bailey which may not be immediately apparent. Certain signs of that disorder, and knowing that disorder you'll know that it is dangerous, and that it appears often in murders, that it is associated with increased proclivity to violence, and rage.

    and when professionals confirm that disorder you may see the case differently. You can call him a prick, but why not question what kind of prick.

    certain parts of bailey fit well with malignant narcissism, and certain parts of sophie fit very well with the profile of a victim of a malignant narcissist.

    none of this is proof, its not meant to be, its just facts which you can take or leave. for me they illustrate very well what could have happened. they show an interesting pattern. and they clarify what could well have happened.

    edit: had bailey kept his head rightly hung in shame for his prior violence towards his wife he wouldn't have peaked my interest even half as much as he did.

    Bailey had a borderline personality" based on "narcissism, psycho-rigidity, violence, impulsiveness, egocentricity with an intolerance to frustration and a great need for recognition".

    • Psychiatrist Jean Michel Masson and psychologist Katy Lorenzo-Regreny


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