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Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed. **Threadbans lifted - see OP**

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    You mentioned a number of times that the DNA was found on the body, they're the cases you are referring to when a high percentage of the time the culprit is the person who left the DNA.

    The DNA found in this case was on Sophie's boot, not on her body. The DNA could and most likely was transferred at a different time to the night she was killed. The DNA is important but it most likely it will only rule someone out as they weren't in Cork.

    As I said, you're putting far too much weight into the DNA. There's no indication that it was related to the case. It's important to find out for certain one way or another though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 558 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    "You are putting far too much weight into the DNA", said no investigative detective ever, in the history of cold cases…

    It is the only DNA of any type that was not the victim found in any location near the body. None on the briars, the gate, the clothes, the house, the ground. This makes it even more important, not less important.

    "The DNA is important", these are your words, its not even a leap to understand why, and that the person who left it is the chief suspect, until such time that they can offer a reasonable explanation for it being there. Unknown DNA in any other case would be the most important piece of evidence. It is in this case also. It massively weakens the gardai case if it is left unexplained, but perhaps even still it is more comfortable for them to leave it so, rather than to open up the pandoras box.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    For some reason you think the DNA on Sophie's boot was left there on the night of the murder. I don't know what has led you to that conclusion but it has not been backed up with any evidence at all.

    The truth is, there more than likely was DNA left elsewhere at the scene but the botched investigation means that we haven't been left with any of it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,838 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    It does seem to be an intractable problem without a clear solution



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 558 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    The evidence that backs it up is that it was found on her dead body. Unknown DNA found on a dead body. What do you want, a selfie of the perpetrator dropping the block on her head?

    It is physical evidence at the scene of a crime. It demands investigation. This is basic stuff, like fundamental rule 1 in investigative practices. Until such time that it can be dismissed (and perhaps it can), the person who left the DNA is the chief suspect. Physical evidence is way more important than circumstantial.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,228 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    So it’s only your opinion then - it’s based on absolutely nothing. At least the posters who are saying it “might” be relevant aren’t placing any further speculation on it either way - they’re stating fact nothing more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    It wasn't found on her body, you keep repeating that. If it was found on her body, that would indicate that it had to come from the murderer. It was found on her boot, it wasn't semen or blood. You've convinced yourself it came from the murderer but the reality is, the DNA could have come from a huge number of people.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,228 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    that’s totally my take on it too- however qualified this head shrinker is he’s not one bit qualified to make the leap that Bailey killed Sophie - it’s plain to you and its plain to me - this is simply 2+2=5



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    Yes, the original investigation was a shambles. I've always thought that since then, we'd need a confession of some sort to find the murderer.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    What are you talking about? Of course it's only my opinion, this whole thread is only opinion. You don't think we're actually investigating the murder or have any impact whatsoever on anything do you?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,228 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    Ah don’t be putting us all down - we’re published too - everytime we post here 😀



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 460 ✭✭Rooks


    Gasp, you mean I'm also a published expert? 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 558 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    I haven't convinced myself of anything. It is totally logical for someone to think that DNA from an unknown person found on a victim is likely to be from the perpetrator. Is it as damning evidence as hypothetical, blood or semen, no. But it's all we have to go on in terms of DNA, we don't have the luxury or perfect evidence. In my opinion it is more damning than the circumstantial evidence. It is your choice to disagree with that, totally fine, but it is very reasonable doubt of Bailey's guilt. I would push it into the more likely than not of his innocence, it seems that you wouldn't go that far, which is fine, but it seems that you also dismiss it, and focus solely on Bailey, which in my opinion is not fine, given this evidence.

    In addition it is demonstrative that there is more DNA evidence to be found. Whether it came from the perpetrator, or the priest, the fact that it was found at all, indicates more could be found too, in fact I would say it likely would be found, if they looked.

    Its exceedingly better to have physical evidence that you must work to exclude, than to not look at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,453 ✭✭✭Gadgetman496


    Sophie Tuscan du Plantier's father has died in hospital with his family at his bedside aged 98.

    "Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 668 ✭✭✭highpitcheric


    If you want to call a science taught in universities worldwide snake oil then ok.

    A separate study by a psychiatrist and (iirc) a different psychologist had similar findings.

    Bailey had a borderline personality" based on "narcissism, psycho-rigidity, violence, impulsiveness, egocentricity with an intolerance to frustration and a great need for recognition".

    • Psychiatrist Jean Michel Masson and psychologist Katy Lorenzo-Regreny


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 668 ✭✭✭highpitcheric


    An emotional connection may refer to a one directional connection.

    Say for example Mark David Chapmans emotional connection to John Lennon.

    Or my own emotional connection to a certain mod.

    Bailey had a borderline personality" based on "narcissism, psycho-rigidity, violence, impulsiveness, egocentricity with an intolerance to frustration and a great need for recognition".

    • Psychiatrist Jean Michel Masson and psychologist Katy Lorenzo-Regreny


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    No, it's not logical in my view. The DNA is far more likely to be completely incidental. Think about it, this was a very violent murder with a lot of injuries to the victims head. You seem to believe the only DNA transfer was to the victims boots. There is no damning evidence there at all. Hopefully they find the source of the DNA but it's likely it will be just to rule someone out and if they had more DNA samples, I'm sure they would be looking into them. I don't think there is.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,717 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    This quote

    "Ian Bailey was a man with “narcissistic and megalomaniac traits” and a “sexual inclination” who most likely killed Sophie Tuscan Du Plantier"

    simply beggars belief.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,717 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    What separate study found that he was the most likely killer based in certain personality traits?

    What was the basis for these diagnoses anyway given they never met him? His Garda statements?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 668 ✭✭✭highpitcheric


    Why.

    Thats his opinion. Its worth at least as much as yours, mine, or that of any one else in here.

    It beggars belief that some f … people in here are now fighting the findings of established experts, and probably an entire scientific litertature.

    Just accept that Bailey was glaringly suspect in psychological terms. Overwhelmingly so. Flashing red arrow over his head level.

    If you cant do that, then youre at flat earth level denial.

    Mod: Warned for being uncivil

    Bailey had a borderline personality" based on "narcissism, psycho-rigidity, violence, impulsiveness, egocentricity with an intolerance to frustration and a great need for recognition".

    • Psychiatrist Jean Michel Masson and psychologist Katy Lorenzo-Regreny


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 668 ✭✭✭highpitcheric


    A team of 1 psychiatrist and 1 psychologist (iirc) assessed him based on his diary writings, criminal history and other records and testimony.

    A search finds:

    "Bailey had a ‘borderline personality’ based on ‘narcissism, psycho-rigidity, violence, impulsiveness, egocentricity with an intolerance to frustration and a great need for recognition.’

    The words were written by psychiatrist Jean Michel Masson and psychologist Katy Lorenzo-Regreny, who both concluded that there was ‘no reason why Bailey could not have committed a criminal act."

    Bailey had a borderline personality" based on "narcissism, psycho-rigidity, violence, impulsiveness, egocentricity with an intolerance to frustration and a great need for recognition".

    • Psychiatrist Jean Michel Masson and psychologist Katy Lorenzo-Regreny


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,366 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    "no reason why Bailey could not have committed a criminal act."

    What absolutely desperate levels of weasel words.

    How many people in Ireland do you think these two clowns could say that about?

    Hundreds of thousands?

    Millions?

    The sort of academic nonsense that gives academics a bad name. Utterly self discrediting drivel.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 460 ✭✭Rooks


    It's absolute nonsensical pseudoscience. Babble like this gives good psychology a bad name.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,717 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    That conclusion is a far far cry from

    "Ian Bailey was a man with “narcissistic and megalomaniac traits” and a “sexual inclination” who most likely killed Sophie Tuscan Du Plantier"

    and is far more along the lines of what I would expect from psychiatry professionals.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,717 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    So in the other study you mention they concluded that

    ‘no reason why Bailey could not have committed a criminal act."

    Do you regard that very non commital conclusion as a flashing red arrow so?

    Or "overwhelmingly suspect". You are all over the place mate.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 460 ✭✭Rooks


    They read his diary and concluded:

    "there was ‘no reason why Bailey could not have committed a criminal act.""

    Which means absolutely nothing and is impossible to prove in a justice system that values things like reasonable doubt. What country did this assessment take place in again? Oh. 🤔

    How could anyone look at this analysis and take it seriously?



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 20,606 Mod ✭✭✭✭Leg End Reject


    Mod: highpitcheric can't come to the thread right now, please don't quote them and try to move on in a civil manner.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 558 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    If it was incidental that would be easily established by the gardai.

    The indisputable fact (not circumstantial, not speculation) of which there are few in this case is that this is the only DNA found at the scene of the crime not coming from the victim. There is no other incidental DNA, anywhere else, there is no perpatrator DNA found anywhere else. Your argument may be logical if there was other DNA found, but there is not. This is an extremely important piece of evidence, until it can be explained, as it would be in any other murder case if looked at objectively.

    The only two people at the scene that are known to have touched Sophie, were herself and the perpetrator. There were only 2 pieces of DNA found. It's logical to conclude that the DNA likely came from the perpetrator. I agree it is possible that it is incidental. I'm not 100% convinced it's from the perpetrator, but I'm more than 50% convinced. I think it is more damning than the circumstantial evidence against Bailey, continue to dismiss it all you like.

    I also think more DNA would be found if they looked.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    We're back to the question I asked you before. Do you think it's possible the DNA on the boots could have been transferred at another occasion apart from the night of the murder?

    You may not answer that but I can tell you that of course it could have transferred at another time and it could have been transferred by a large number of people. In all probability, it was incidental.

    It's not the smoking gun you think it is, no matter how much you repeat it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,228 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    Yep-If we go on that basis then odyssey06 is a shoe-in for this murder based on their deflection posts - oscar_madison too 😀



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