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Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed. **Threadbans lifted - see OP**

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 558 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    This has to be around your 10th time at least to fail to counteract any evidence raised against Bailey. It's obviously not as easy as you claim to rule him out as the leading suspect.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    Well first of all, where have I ever dismissed it? And again you failed to answer, could the list you created actually have nothing to do with Sophie's murder?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    You're not getting confused, you're just accusing everyone of ignoring evidence when noone has done that. Then you're arguing against them because they have ignored the evidence. This is called a strawman argument.

    Could the DNA found on the boot have nothing to do with the murder of Sophie? I've asked you that multiple times now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,231 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN



    Just reflecting on this case considering the anniversary that’s just past and the fact a new year is about to begin.

    We know more about Bailey, an alleged murderer than we do about most other suspects accused but not convicted of a crime.

    This “familiarity” over nearly 30 long years, has I think, bred an attitude similar to “well if he’s still the main suspect he must have done it”.

    Does anyone feel at this point, the the Gardai should put all their cards on the table- own up to their short comings early in the investigation, acknowledge that good practice police investigation protocols and procedures weren’t adhered to, admit that for certain other “suspects” , it’s impossible to rule them out due to maybe their death early or late on in the investigation- that certain lines of enquiry that could have proved fruitful were blocked such as investigation into certain French individuals or indeed their inaction in pursuing other more local lines of enquiry?

    While I acknowledge that Bailey remaining a suspect is probably the correct course of action, simply because of his history of violence against women coupled with his unclear movements on the night in question, it’s very obvious that he’s the “chief suspect” simply because very early on in the investigation pretty much all resources were devoted to ensuring he would be found to be the killer.

    In general I think trust in Gardai in 2024 is fairly good- certainly better than 30 years ago. But for me to have total faith in this investigation I’m expecting as a taxpayer and Irish citizen that they’re fully held to account and that they acknowledge and take responsibility for all faults and failings of this investigation.

    Someone murdered Sophie- the Gardai haven’t caught the killer and may well have placed a completely innocent man at the heart of their investigation and let the real killer go free. I think the public deserve answers at this stage - we’re paying for it through our taxes - and with resources still devoted to this case other crimes remain unsolved. It’s about time the spotlight moved to Gardai for a while and away from Bailey.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 558 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    It is possible that it is just coincidental of course, but I believe that the list of items, and in particular the DNA evidence has everything to do with her murder. Whoever left it has to explain themselves in my opinion, and their alibi (if they have one) would have to be scrutinised further, and they could be questioned, and probably arrested under that evidence alone.

    It would be up to a jury to decide if the physical evidence left at the scene of the murder is sufficient to warrant a conviction of the person that left it there.

    In an actual trial of this suspect, any of the hearsay evidence against Bailey would be ruled inadmissible, however in a trial against Bailey, physical evidence of another potential perpetrator would have been permitted, as it is stronger evidence. The DNA alone would have thrown massive doubt on the case, especially if the gardai had not bothered to investigate it.

    It doesn't completely rule out Bailey as a suspect either, but in my opinion it is stronger, and far more damning than circumstantial evidence, and rules in a more likely suspect than Bailey, if the gards bothered to investigate it further. Doesn't fully rule him out though, he would still be a suspect, just not the prime suspect, and that's what a proper investigation is supposed to do, instead of the shambles we got.

    Let me be concise. DNA evidence which has not been explained, or investigated further, is stronger evidence than anything against Bailey.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 558 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    One can't even apologise around here…., my answer is above



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,838 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    It is possible that there are innocent explanations for the DNA on Sophie's boot, the unidentified tyre marks, boot prints, fingermarks and finger prints.

    It is equally possible thre are innocent explanations for the circumstantial evidence you list against Ian Bailey. Even more than possible since two different DPPs on at least three separate occasions have expressed the view that there was not evidence to support prosecuting Ian Bailey.

    It would appear there are far too many loose ends and too little (if any) direct evidence to even approach the 'beyond reasonable doubt' threshold.

    Until then, almost anyone could be a suspect.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 558 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    "It’s about time the spotlight moved to Gardai for a while and away from Bailey."

    Unfortunately, whilst I completely agree with you, and feel that justice would require such an investigation, the chances of the gardai investigating themselves, and finding any wrongdoing are pretty much nil. There have already been many such cases in the public eye, and we never hear almost anything about individual gardai shortcomings, except an 'apology' (Kerry babies is the most glaring example). It would require an independent investigation, likely from media, probably from outside the state (France or England) to make any progress on this front.

    In addition it is unlikely that the gardai will turn up anything which could be used for a conviction against anyone, including perhaps even DNA, as contamination (bags open), missing evidence, and coercing witnesses, will probably bring reasonable doubt to any case. It should not prevent them from investigating however, and if further DNA is found, that person, or persons should be questioned thoroughly.

    I just don't think there is much will to do things properly, given the above, and where there is no will, there is no way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 460 ✭✭Rooks


    "evidence raised against Bailey"

    There is none. You constantly repeating this and spamming your pointless list doesn't change the fact.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 460 ✭✭Rooks


    Yep, you're probably right, the incentive for the Gardai is to circle the wagons and show they were right all along. Even though they couldn't prove it while their prime suspect was alive. Funny, that.

    The methodology of this cold case is as likely to be as rigorous as a French murder trial.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 460 ✭✭Rooks


    A completely reasonable take. Sadly wasted on certain people.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    The DNA on the boot could have been transferred in France, the boots were old. It's more likely that it has nothing to do with the murder at all. You're putting far too much importance in it. Just to be clear, that doesn't mean I'm ruling it out in case you start strawmanning again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,231 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    In terms of questioning others I think the boat has long sailed on that one - most if not all people mentioned in this and other discussions on the case have long since deceased - if the report to the DPP in 2025 doesn’t differ considerably to the report submitted in the early 2000s then this has been a complete waste of time money and effort- and if they’re still banging on about Bailey submitting essentially hearsay as “evidence” then they’ve a hell of a lot of questions to answer to justify this complete waste of taxpayers money.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    I said nothing about beyond a reasonable doubt, I just said that Bailey is rightfully the leading suspect and that's true. These innocent explanations are far too high in number. The violent turkey and Christmas tree, he was too drunk so that's why he lied about his whereabouts on the night of the murder yet wrote an article for the paper, the fire where potential evidence was found, the bleach, him admitting he killed her was a joke he kept repeating but it's all the other people's fault for not knowing he was joking and most despicably, he wasn't violent towards women, Jules caused him to beat her to a pulp.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    There is and the cold case team are looking into this and more it seems. Putting your fingers in your ears and going la la la won't make it disappear.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 460 ✭✭Rooks


    Strange how they couldn't use this magical evidence to secure a trial and conviction while the defendant was alive. They had nearly 30 years.

    But now that the defendant is dead all of sudden the Gardai are making leaps and bounds.

    Laughable. 😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 558 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    A reasonable take, however it warrants further investigation to establish this, and until that investigation is carried out the DNA is the strongest piece of evidence in the case.

    In addition, I believe there is almost certainly more DNA to be found, given how advanced techniques have become and the plethora of samples available to test. This would include potential evidence against Bailey by the way.

    The fact that everyone cannot simply agree (even if you consider people pro-or-anti Bailey) that further investigation of DNA is the first, and most important step, in any cold case review is extremely disheartening in the search for justice.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    Surely this snake oil nonsense didn't form part of the prosecution?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,231 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    “It's more likely that it has nothing to do with the murder at all.”


    Where is the evidence for that statement?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 460 ✭✭Rooks


    It's the French justice system, you don't need pesky things like hard evidence, reasonable doubt, etc. You don't even need a defendant or defense team present!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    Everyone thinks it's an important step, what are you talking about? But remember, this investigation was botched from the start. This means that potential evidence was not gathered or destroyed. So there is not many samples to test and what they do have may have the possibility to be tested once more. Waiting until DNA analysis is at an even more developed stage may be the tactic.

    People pointing out the evidence against Bailey does not mean they 100% think it was him, it just means he's the most likely culprit given everything we know.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    In the same place that there's evidence that the sample was related to the murder.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,231 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    This snake oil evidence as you call it also went on to say the following:

    “His analysis suggests the manner in which Sophie was bludgeoned to death, “particularly and relentlessly directed to the victim’s face, might suggest an emotional connection between the perpetrator and victim”.

    He submits that the “targeted destructive rage may also suggest repressed and unexpressed sexual motivation enhancing the perpetrator’s frustration and hence his rage.”


    Considering no clear connection between Bailey and Sophie has ever been established, no less an emotional one, that one hell if a fcking jump 😀

    https://www.thesun.ie/news/12042438/ian-bailey-report-sophie-tuscan-du-plantier-murder/amp/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    Did you read the story in relation to the French journalist that Bailey formed an obsession over? The emotional connection may have only been in Bailey's head.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,296 ✭✭✭chooseusername


    Reverse profiling- Here's the murder. Here's the killer. Here's everything the Gardaí have given us on the killer, now make it fit.

    However

    "And he suggested the alleged admissions he made about Sophie’s death were “attempts to create confusion and cloud the issue”….

    Dr Gatherias wrote: “They are not to be taken as confessions as such ………"

    He's probably right about that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 460 ✭✭Rooks


    He was a "published expert" too. We are mere internet people. Who are we to argue?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    🤣 He's talking complete and utter rubbish I tells ya. Except for the part that is pro Bailey.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 558 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    In any normal investigation, the person who left the DNA and the boot print is the most likely culprit (i.e. greater than 50% imo). Almost all cold cases are solved by DNA.

    Bailey is on the list for sure, but I don't think he's most likely given all of the evidence. We can agree to disagree on this point, but I don't see how you can on the one hand say everyone thinks DNA is an important step, and then not look at the DNA profile that is already available, and say who owns that, perhaps they could have done it?

    What percentage likelihood would you give to the unknown DNA, out of interest. Bailey may be most likely in your opinion, how likely, what are the odds you would give 90%, 75%?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,370 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Given that Bailey has been investigated by fair means and foul with a spotlight, and all that was drummed up was 'very weak  circumstantial evidence'
    … And a senior Guard said that considering the now discredited Marie Farrell's evidence of a sighting on the night of the murder as reliable…

    The most likely suspect is person or person(s) unknown.

    The entire "leading suspect" angle is meaningless nonsense. The amount of very weak evidence the Guards put together against Bailey is a function of him being suspected and investigated by them. Even to the extent of rolling out such dodgy witnesses as Marie Farrell and Bill Fuller. It is circular logic.

    The DNA on the boot may have nothing to do with the murder, but if people are prepared to argue that for DNA, then the same standard needs to be applied for so much of the debatable or possibly innocent 'evidence' against Bailey, such as scratches,
    That's circumstantial evidence for you.

    And there are many other points that suggest a time for the murder towards morning which would make Bailey an even less likely suspect. Also use of a vehicle. The foot prints. The tire tracks.
    Supposedly scratched at the scene yet zero forensics.
    How many of those have to be "explained away"?

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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