Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

If you want to be accurate to 1000 houses fine, maybe you need the year and every recorded year since. In reality its trivia. We know we need 35-40,000 homes per year just to stop the gap opening wider on average. We have then had 10 years of 10-20,000 short, so the gap is at least 100,0000 homes, the state can watch the average people per house reduce from 2.8 to 2.2, and average age people leave return to early 20s not 30s, and that will define when to slow down.

As such knowing if the shortage started in 1990 or 2012 is sort of irrelevant in the scheme of things, we are so far away from fine tuning the supply!

Oh, and I blocked hometruths a while back. So I've no idea what you're saying buddy.

3 work colleagues and there families from a small group received notice to quit over the last 18 months.

Maybe the landlords were smart and took advantage of the tenant in situ scheme and sold the rpz restricted apartment and purchased an unaffected one and potentially doubled the rent

A more likely reason is that tax rental credits has flushed out non compliant landlords

Extending the first home scheme to used properties potentially maxs the price achieved at a time when rents are stabilising in some areas. Landlords exiting in such an environment might be wise

Further exodous? I'm starting to ask the opposite question of why there are any that haven't already bolted..

Over half of renters receive state subsidies. If the subsidies were removed overnight, alot of people would find themselves homeless. This is why the subsidies cannot be removed.

There are plenty of people capable of paying current market rents that cannot find a property to rent.

If the subsidies were removed, these people would move in & pay the market rate.

In other words, without a significant uptick in building, removing subsidies wont matetially descrease rents; but it would turbo charge homelessness.

And so it cannot happen.

No housing units would spontaneously evaporate if subsidies were removed

Remove the subsidies but implement a temporary eviction ban (as was done during covid, so is entirely possible) to give time to let the market reset.

The state can buy the properties of any landlord "exodus" from the market for social housing, if one actually happens, instead of block buying expensive new build properties as its doing at present.

Rents would drop drastically to a more rational rental market, and the state would save a fortune on rental supports (iirc heading towards €1bn a year at present?) at the same time.

As long as there are enough people in the private rental market to pay the current rent prices, the rent prices wont come down.

There are plenty of potential renters that are living at home or house sharing that can't find property to rent. Remove the subsidies and those folks will step in & pay the rents.

And when they do, where do you put all the subsidised renters that are now homeless?

Yes Dublin city centre, Georgian Dublin used to have lots of tenants living 2 or 3rd floow now above 2nd floor pigeons are living in them.

The area should be properly developed for people to live in.

Almost every new apartment scheme in Dublin goes to the rental market and they all rent out at those high prices. There are plenty of folks in Dublin that can afford them and there is pent up demand.

Taxes are being used to pay rent subsidies because the govt doesnt have enough housing stock to house those that cannot afford market rents.

That is not the fault of the landlord, it is the fault of the govt.

The govt provides the subsidy in order to secure the property from the private market.

If they did not do this, the property would rent on the open market anyway (at least in Dublin) and would rent for the going rate.

The local councils housing list however, well that would grow ever longer. .

Could they be referring to people who can afford rent but can't actually find homes to rent? (Such as people in their 20s/30s living in their parents box rooms?)

100% of tenants are not going to stop paying rent because of a tempory eviction ban. We literally have a real world example of the state doing just this during covid - and nothing terrible happened, everything functioned just fine during and afterwards.

The idea that we were able to do it in 2022, but if we did the exact same thing now it would be cataclysmic, is just very clearly not rational or logical, or based on real world evidence.

100% of landlords are also not going to sell their homes. There has been talk of a landlord "exodus" when every new measure was brought in like RPZs and it turns out our numbers of landlords are actually going up.