Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

And they would have paid over 100k had they not been given the rebate.

The HTB does not achieve anything good. It is simply good optics for govt (in the eyes of FTB who don't understand market dynamics). Everyone else can see that HTB is just a demand subsidy that inflated prices for everyone.

And unlike many promises made during election cycles, I feel very, very confident that these will be upheld.

I suspect such a measure could spark a further landlord exodus particularly in rent pressure zones

Its got the 100% mortgage effect feel about it

Lots of denial and group think evident in the last few posts, all key ingredients in the last boom/bust cycle

Happy New year

Housing shortage for much of the early noughties that wasn't really addressed till 06.

Taxpayer covering the riskest 30% of the price of homes if the state extends first home scheme to used properties

Taxpayer subsidising half the rents in the country

White House will be eyeing up our corporation tax and our multi national jobs

The debt mountain from the last bust is still there, we entered the last crisis with little debt and the pension reserve fund. We are having far fewer children due to high cost of housing so we have fewer kids to throw under the bus when the next crash comes along

Significant net migration to ireland from 04 to 07

An upward trend in positive net migration can be observed up to 2007 with significantly large increases in the years 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, likely due to enlargement of the European Union. After the peak in 2007, there were huge drops in net migration up to 2010, when a return of negative net migration can be observed

"Now prices are pumped up because government is bringing forward demand with subsidies."

You are aware of the concept of compounding? Each year doesn't delete the previous year's problems. It isn't difficult to work out the driving force behind our housing market issues, both for renting and purchasing. Too many people, not enough housing.

Numbers up 5.7% in the year to end of Sept 2024. Hardly qualifies for the description "exodus"

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2024/1205/1484914-number-of-landlords-in-ireland-up-5-7-rtb-figures-show/

Why do you need to answer what year we had enough housing, totally and utterly irrelevant. We are where we are, the problem is clear, and it is at a level where major employers (with good jobs) hold it against the country when it comes to investment and expanding employment, so the issue is more critical today even if it has existed since the 1920s.

Nah, I own a house so all's good with me. 😊

"it doesn't tell us anything other than since 2015 there has been sufficient net dwelling completions to accommodate net migration."

Typo? It says the complete opposite.

😂 Ok, I finally understand why you have a problem with the chart.

All the best buddy.

Let's examine pre-2016.

The rent pressure zone regulations have been in place since 2016. In response to what? If there was sufficient or oversupply of housing there would be no pressure on rents. But the RPZ regulations were brought in during 2016. In response to what? If the supply of housing was so high then why was the price of rent rising? Why the need for government intervention in the market?

The P in RPZ stands for pressure. Why was there pressure? Not enough housing supply. Too much demand. Very simple.

This is the state of play pre 2016.

Then, after 2016, net migration goes parabolic while new dwellings struggles to keep up. Remember now, we already have undersupply. See above. Pressure. Regulation. Market intervention.

So rents continue rise sharply. And demand for house purchases increases as credit becomes available again. Demand increases further while supply doesn't keep up.

This is why rents and house prices are so high. Not enough supply. Too much demand.

The HTB stuff is just adding fuel to the fire, but the fire had been burning for years already.