Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

Heneghan and Harkin would be far more willing to support FF/FG.

Nolan might be willing to work with SF these days, Stanley though…

Indeed , but not SFs kind of change.

More like 51%, was the FF/FG combo not just 2 seats away from a majority? It's even less when you factor in the former FG independents and the likes of the Healy-Rae's who are essentially FF.

Also that 51% are very fractured in terms of what they do want. Split across the parties of the left who can't find a common platform to assemble a government.

If anything the electorate have given the FF/FG combo more of a mandate than 5 years ago. They now won't need a 3rd party like the Greens to help them govern if they so choose. That choice wasn't available in 2020.

It will be an even stronger government than the last one IMO as they will only have to pander to local independents issues, rather than play to a third parties ideology here and there to keep them happy.

The truth is SF don't have the mandate that gives the right to form a government in the ROI. The majority in Ireland are not comfortable with SF in government in the ROI for a myriad of reasons. The electorate have given that mandate to FF/FG and likely a few independents.

The reality is Ireland has achieved a level of stability and prosperity that even many European countries would love to achieve. All while having a more central role and great soft power in the EU. While also being the only native English speaking country in the EU.

The majority of the electorate are smart enough to know that voting SF into government would either disrupt or destroy this. In reality SF are a very insular, local type party, who is Euroskeptic at best, and more focused on symbolism at worst. The only international type issue SF is vocal on is the pro-Palestine narrative which their hardcore erroneously equate to "Na Sé Chontae" as they call it.

I think opposition will suit SF they need to gradually move to the centre, while not alienating their hardcore the usual stereotypes on the border regions, and the working class in Dublin who are anti-immigrant etc.

SF are really in catch 22 - FF won't go in bed with them, because of SF's previous dubious choice of partners. And SF going more centrist to court the middle class vote, in the ROI can alienate their hardcore "traditional" vote.

"Change" was such a weak strategy for SF. It's been done to death already. There was no compelling vision to go with the cliché.

Also,Eoin O Broins much vaunted plan was a muddled, fatally flawed mess. He deserves a huge slice of the blame for the big decline in SF votes. A bluffer.

Here's a thing that probably needs to eb recognised.

Did sinn fein have a good campaign (by which I mean the 3 weeks of the official campaign)? Yes. Mary Lou is a fierce campaigner, she stopped the rot of the previous months and clawed back support.

Did sinn fein have a good period in opposition? Not really. They spiked too early and once it got into the period when an election was approaching their support dropped like a stone. They've stopped that drop, but will it grow back up to the mid to high 20s or beyond? Hard to say, especially with a resuegent labour and a surging Soc Dems (assuming both stay in opposition).

It can also be said that, while Harris and FG had a very poor campaign, he's been good for the party since he took over. Imagine where the FG numbers would be if it was Leo who led them into the election? The question for Simon Harris is whether the bounce in support he got when he took over was just a short term thing? Or whether he can keep that growth going while in government. It's possible that people will see them in government and make them more popular again, forgetting the campaign.

Political parties need to be able to campaign well, and also perform well across the whole of the Dail term. This is something sinn fein suffer with (more with the dail term than the campaigning), it's also something fine gael suffer with (they have never had a good election campaign apart from the tap in that was 2011).

It would be foolish to think MLMD has any serious hopes that FF will respond to her. I'd credit her with more political wit tbh. She's making it clear that MM is making a 'choice' in order to use that against him further down the line.
It was a theme of the opposition campaign, 'it is the choices you make - who to tax, who to govern with, who to ignore and who to look after, that defines you.
That will continue.

that was a great election for SF

More rubbish, the boy has every entitlement to support who he likes and feels most aligned with his ideals.

What happened here was that those who can evaluate things, said firmly and clearly that they didn't want to

be governed from Connolly House. Others cast their votes for people like Gerard Hutch.

"Going after" people as MLMD promised is not the way to operate, trying to shoehorn United Ireland into things right now

is also a bad outlook.

If SF maybe copped themselves on and actually really saw what the electorate wanted they might do better.