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Storm Darragh : Fri 6th /Sat 7th Dec 2024

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,384 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    It is alright. Nationwide Orange looks more than likely. Will some areas see red, I don't think they should do that but it is a possibility



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,645 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yeah it is actually derived from ARPEGE to a finer resolution from 5km to 1.3km, see below

    That is showing up around 140km/h gusts around Longford all right , very strong on windaward coasts up to 130 km/h and very strong in the SE and parts of the E.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 518 ✭✭✭Donegal Ken


    Yeah its a big upgrade on the ARPEGE tonight. Here is a better view for Ireland from it. Widespread severe & Damaging gusts.

    gustkph_20241205_18_029 (1).jpg gustkph_20241205_18_030.jpg gustkph_20241205_18_031 (1).jpg gustkph_20241205_18_032.jpg gustkph_20241205_18_033 (1).jpg gustkph_20241205_18_035.jpg


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,403 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I have to say these are the scariest looking wind charts I've seen posted here in a long time on a nationwide scale.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,830 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Worth remembering the direction of wind as well, a gust from the N/NW will overall do more damage than a gust of the same speed from the SW/W.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,415 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Knock Airport TAF goes from gusts of just 25 knots at 9pm to gusts of 62 knots after 10pm. Anyone reading this thread secure anything loose tomorrow.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,645 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Some of the projected highest gusts on this run, bit hard to see but showing the SE straying into Red territory now gusting over 130km/h and parts of the midlands and possibly Kerry and Clare and parts of the NE like Sligo and maybe Donegal. All counties at orange initially at this stage, couldn't leave a county out ,those strong gusts could show up anywhere, lucky it is blowing through fairly quickly and clearing early morning with no school runs giving time to clear up. Lots of power outages.

    Could have thunderstorms also along coastal counites into the early hours with huge showers of rain and hail ,gusty day with squally showers to follow especially along Atlantic coastal counties.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,645 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The American models, GFS and WRF , look a bit underwhelming tonight, could be outliers like ECM earlier today, will see on the next run.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 188 ✭✭Rain from the West


    True. This pressure chart from the GFS for early Saturday morning shows this nicely. From the east of Co. Down to SW Kerry there's a pressure differential of nearly 30 millibars. That's a lot for a small country like Ireland.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 247 ✭✭Ros4Sam24


    I would expect this event should be making headlines. Storms are being named and ramped far too easily these days and people are paying less heed, certainly not helped by the like of Galway Beo. Scary charts certainly



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,645 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    I must say that the UKMO doesn't look that way ahead now. Looking quite similar to the French models.

    Would still think a bit ahead in the highest gusts in the NE and midlands, a bit ahead of the pack yet as it is inclined to do.

    UKMO 18Z latest output.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,288 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    YE personally all of Ireland in orange warning , what tipped me off that the storm was gonna be bad was northern Ireland going orange, maybe 6 to 9 counties going red for a time , i have to say I've never seen charts like that ever showing inland gusts well into orange warning territory and I've been following weather the last 14 years , I've stocked up on candles and have batteries and gas at the ready , I think I spoke to soon yesterday I said I wanted this storm one to remember as it's named after me so now ,any damage to property foot the bill to me



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,317 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    Really hoping this will downgrade a little bit. I HATE the wind! Have since I was a child. It brings so much damage and hardship to people at this time of year. N



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,645 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 18Z with some close ups of areas getting the highest gusts. Look at Clare, ouch!

    xx_model-en-324-0_modezrpd_2024120518_27_949_93.png

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    xx_model-en-324-0_modezrpd_2024120518_27_4866_93.png xx_model-en-324-0_modezrpd_2024120518_30_4866_93.png

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,276 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Nationwide Orange, and Red for all western counties from Donegal to Cork if that ECM is to be believed (as well as Wicklow, if for nothing else but to keep people off the mountains on Saturday AM).

    As pointed out earlier, we'll let MÉ be the experts as they may be seeing something we're not but over-reliance on their model is a perilous route to take. Damned if they do and damned if they don't though really.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,604 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Gusts of over a 100mph off the Clare Coast. We have not seen that too often in recent times.

    I usually look forward to storms but I have mixed feelings about this one as it now looks like a potentially very damaging storm for much of the country-usually the ones that move through quickly and deepen as they do so tend to be the worst.

    I know its a party night for many later tonight but I would avoid it( if you can)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,137 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    Same as that, fear of it as a kid drove me to want to know all about it as an adult but it doesn't help with the anxiety levels with these kinds of events.

    I've been in my house for 6 years now and the worst storm we've had impact-wise was Barra, almost 3 years ago to the day from this storm. We had no structural damage here from that but it was a long storm and we had no power for 4 days after it. I remember looking out the window at some gusts bending the trees and being quite scared of it, and that was a southerly wind too. This storm makes Barra look like a strong breeze in comparison, I'm genuinely quite concerned about some of the gusts showing for my part of Wicklow there.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,645 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Starting to take shape

    71968448.gif image.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 606 ✭✭✭aisling86


    I nearly hope cork does go red so places will close - it’s going to be a massive night in the city, myself included due to go to the opera house at 10pm coming out after midnight. Thousands of people full of pints in that weather won’t be good!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,993 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Red alert would certainly be justified by some guidance in Clare (evening), and coastal Connacht, Donegal (towards midnight). Sudden onset will be a big factor, dangerous conditions will follow near-calm within an hour or less.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,383 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 219 ✭✭CirrusBusiness


    Bad gut feeling with this one. Getting Darwin vibes and this one is going to hit with NW'ly winds. Better charge up the banks.

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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,870 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Looking at all the charts I would not be surprised to see Wicklow (and possibly Dublin) go Red warning for a period overnight/early tomorow morning.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 672 ✭✭✭Not made with hands


    If they cancel the toy show and it turns out to be a damp squid met eireann will never hear the end of it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Yeah was thinking orange definitely. For dublin, especially the mountains/foothills the wind direction will hit them hard



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,870 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Given strongest winds due to hit Dublin early tommorow morning, I think the Toy Show is safe!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 250 ✭✭Condor24


    I think the damp squid will be fairly well blow dried by the gales tomorrow. The worst may be after midnight toward dawn so I'd say they'll not cancel. But depends on warnings.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,645 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models very much the same more or less, HARMONIE is that bit stronger, GFS/ WRF bit stronger but European models now firmly the strongest. Very strong winds up to 130km/h overland in parts see charts below, possible counties in Red for a time. Windy , blustery day to follow Saturday with squally showers.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,419 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    what counties look like getting the worst of it inland? My very basic knowledge shows east Kerry north cork getting a good bashing? Or am I totally off!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 672 ✭✭✭Not made with hands


    I see on met eireann now strongest winds not until 4am. If the squid is out he won't be out during the late late show.



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