Storm Darragh : Fri 6th /Sat 7th Dec 2024
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Well, ECM 12Z is gone the other extreme now and really ramped up the wind speeds. The charts only come out in 3 hr'ly frames so have to fill in the speeds but looking very windy on this one and can see how tight that gradient is. Clare and North Kerry on this run in the highest Orange or Red warning level. Luckily going through fairly quickly but sometimes these kind of rapidly deepening storms with quick forward momentum pack the biggest winds and often hear of jet streaks accompanying them. It has the look of being a fairly damaging storm and as others mentioned these are very strong winds from the NW so will test trees and electricity supply not to mind some buildings. I have the feeling that there will be big outages from this. A bit to go yet to get the final picture but I could see most counties in Orange warning level for some time however short.
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Just looking back at Storm Darwin and comparing these two storms. Storm Darwin was much deeper at around 955hPa and approaching roughly at the same position even though they had a slightly different track and producing NW to W'ly winds , this storm deepening as it transits the country at about 979Hpa after deepening rapidly on approach , much bigger core in this storm, Darwin was much more compact. Both have almost the same position on the left exit of a very fast Jet but tomorrows storm is coming off an even faster jet and an arc of an extremely fast jet following, the storm is positioned in what looks like an upturned horseshoe arc of the Jet stream . Both storms have somewhat similar mid level 850hPa temperatures. Big discussions after Darwin about Jet streaks and the very noticeable band of damage that was so evident. Even though this storm is not projected to produce winds as strong as Darwin I am wondering will it produce some type of similar damage paths from possible Jet streaks.
This storm if somewhat less strong has the close appearance of the wind field that Darwin produced, and looking at the gradient I remember it was almost like you flicked a switch, it went from relatively calm to full on storm in minutes and the strongest winds only lasted about an hour or so around here in Kerry. A few more runs yet to go😀
Link to Met Eireanns report about Strom Darwin.
HARMONIE 18Z just rolling out
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I do think we will see much of the country upgraded to a orange warning tomorrow morning as this is looking very strong nationwide. A few red warnings may also be issued potentially across some northwestern and southeastern areas if some models are correct. I think some of the models are finding it hard to forecast this. Especially when you look yesterday evening at Met Eireanns Harmonie model and ensembles showing this system much further south. I think a few more upgrades can be expected tonight and tomorrow morning closer to the time. UKV showing very strong gusts nationwide.
As Meteorite mentioned above it will be interesting to see if more models pick up on these jet streaks as they are a real danger in storms like this.
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Met Eireann's new ensembles came out and they updated the hourly forecast. Very much at odds with a lot of the model output. The models are showing high orange to red level gusts in my area but by Met Eireann it's barely scraping yellow. Their modelling is showing something we're not seeing.
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Aperge isn’t out in full view for Ireland but another upgrade. Latest one has rarely seen exceptional gusts for parts of the midlands.
Below is 12z
Below most recent 18z, I think that’s a pocket of 140-149km/h gusts for parts of the midlands. While that isn’t widespread above I think you have to go back to the 60/70s to see something comparable to that around mullingar
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AROME 18Z stronger than earlier runs———→ only going one way …up.
AROME at this range getting into its own, a model I would say that almost never overdoes it. That is a strong chart for AROME.
Siobhan Ryan on the Met Eireann forecast tonight after the news saying that upgrades possible tomorrow, stressed a number of times how this could be damaging.
Earlier run this morning
AROME18Z just out
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