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Storm Darragh : Fri 6th /Sat 7th Dec 2024

Meteorite58

The main models have really ramped up the possibility of very windy or stormy weather with impactful conditions later Friday into Saturday. There is a big spread even at this stage in track , strength, duration and rainfall totals but I would be siding with the global models in the main at the moment , I don't think the Hi Res models are anywhere near this yet. The difficulty with this system is that it is arriving and deepening rapidly along a very fast Jet as it transits the country. Some models showing going through quickly but with a punch and others very strong and stalling the strong winds for a long duration from later Friday into Saturday.

Much to be resolved and needing a close watch and monitoring . Always a different type of storm when it is actually deepening and crossing the country, must have a look to see if there is a possibility of Low level Jet winds.

UKMO strongest as often is at the lead up and prone to moderating quite a bit over a few runs ( long duration ), GFS and GEM quite strong with yellows and orange warning levels currently quite widespread with long duration, ECM quick and very windy passage in a number of hours, yellow and orange perhaps, ACCESS G very strong widespread storm but a bit to go to steady down, ICON quite windy yellows and orange warnings, strongest winds not lasting as long as the GFS and GEM but longer lasting than the ECM.

Rainfall totals highest in Western and Northern counties, not overly high totals but quite wet being on top of the rain to fall over the coming days.

Colder weather set to follow later Fri into Sat, windy with blustery wintry showers of rain and sleet, hail could be fairly prominent due to the unstable airmass with thunderstorms possible especially along Atlantic coastal counties. Showers set to retreat to coastal counites during the day .Cold with a Windchill.

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JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122927451#Comment_122927451

It is alright. Nationwide Orange looks more than likely. Will some areas see red, I don't think they should do that but it is a possibility

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122927436#Comment_122927436

Yeah it is actually derived from ARPEGE to a finer resolution from 5km to 1.3km, see below

That is showing up around 140km/h gusts around Longford all right , very strong on windaward coasts up to 130 km/h and very strong in the SE and parts of the E.

https://www.umr-cnrm.fr/spip.php?article120&lang=en#:~:text=The%20model%20is%20initialized%20from,to%20the%20AROME%20finer%20resolution.

Donegal Ken

Yeah its a big upgrade on the ARPEGE tonight. Here is a better view for Ireland from it. Widespread severe & Damaging gusts.

Gonzo

I have to say these are the scariest looking wind charts I've seen posted here in a long time on a nationwide scale.

.Donegal.

Worth remembering the direction of wind as well, a gust from the N/NW will overall do more damage than a gust of the same speed from the SW/W.

Oscar Bravo

Knock Airport TAF goes from gusts of just 25 knots at 9pm to gusts of 62 knots after 10pm. Anyone reading this thread secure anything loose tomorrow.

Meteorite58

Some of the projected highest gusts on this run, bit hard to see but showing the SE straying into Red territory now gusting over 130km/h and parts of the midlands and possibly Kerry and Clare and parts of the NE like Sligo and maybe Donegal. All counties at orange initially at this stage, couldn't leave a county out ,those strong gusts could show up anywhere, lucky it is blowing through fairly quickly and clearing early morning with no school runs giving time to clear up. Lots of power outages.

Could have thunderstorms also along coastal counites into the early hours with huge showers of rain and hail ,gusty day with squally showers to follow especially along Atlantic coastal counties.

Meteorite58

The American models, GFS and WRF , look a bit underwhelming tonight, could be outliers like ECM earlier today, will see on the next run.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122927441#Comment_122927441

True. This pressure chart from the GFS for early Saturday morning shows this nicely. From the east of Co. Down to SW Kerry there's a pressure differential of nearly 30 millibars. That's a lot for a small country like Ireland.

Ros4Sam24

I would expect this event should be making headlines. Storms are being named and ramped far too easily these days and people are paying less heed, certainly not helped by the like of Galway Beo. Scary charts certainly

Meteorite58

I must say that the UKMO doesn't look that way ahead now. Looking quite similar to the French models.

Would still think a bit ahead in the highest gusts in the NE and midlands, a bit ahead of the pack yet as it is inclined to do.

UKMO 18Z latest output.

Dazler97

YE personally all of Ireland in orange warning , what tipped me off that the storm was gonna be bad was northern Ireland going orange, maybe 6 to 9 counties going red for a time , i have to say I've never seen charts like that ever showing inland gusts well into orange warning territory and I've been following weather the last 14 years , I've stocked up on candles and have batteries and gas at the ready , I think I spoke to soon yesterday I said I wanted this storm one to remember as it's named after me so now ,any damage to property foot the bill to me

Sammy2012

Really hoping this will downgrade a little bit. I HATE the wind! Have since I was a child. It brings so much damage and hardship to people at this time of year. N

Meteorite58

ECM 18Z with some close ups of areas getting the highest gusts. Look at Clare, ouch!

xx_model-en-324-0_modezrpd_2024120518_36_949_93 (1).png

sdanseo

Nationwide Orange, and Red for all western counties from Donegal to Cork if that ECM is to be believed (as well as Wicklow, if for nothing else but to keep people off the mountains on Saturday AM).

As pointed out earlier, we'll let MÉ be the experts as they may be seeing something we're not but over-reliance on their model is a perilous route to take. Damned if they do and damned if they don't though really.

nacho libre

Gusts of over a 100mph off the Clare Coast. We have not seen that too often in recent times.

I usually look forward to storms but I have mixed feelings about this one as it now looks like a potentially very damaging storm for much of the country-usually the ones that move through quickly and deepen as they do so tend to be the worst.

I know its a party night for many later tonight but I would avoid it( if you can)

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122927549#Comment_122927549

Same as that, fear of it as a kid drove me to want to know all about it as an adult but it doesn't help with the anxiety levels with these kinds of events.

I've been in my house for 6 years now and the worst storm we've had impact-wise was Barra, almost 3 years ago to the day from this storm. We had no structural damage here from that but it was a long storm and we had no power for 4 days after it. I remember looking out the window at some gusts bending the trees and being quite scared of it, and that was a southerly wind too. This storm makes Barra look like a strong breeze in comparison, I'm genuinely quite concerned about some of the gusts showing for my part of Wicklow there.

Meteorite58

Starting to take shape

aisling86

I nearly hope cork does go red so places will close - it’s going to be a massive night in the city, myself included due to go to the opera house at 10pm coming out after midnight. Thousands of people full of pints in that weather won’t be good!

M.T. Cranium

Red alert would certainly be justified by some guidance in Clare (evening), and coastal Connacht, Donegal (towards midnight). Sudden onset will be a big factor, dangerous conditions will follow near-calm within an hour or less.

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1864923970941636898

🌀🌀🌀🌀

CirrusBusiness

Bad gut feeling with this one. Getting Darwin vibes and this one is going to hit with NW'ly winds. Better charge up the banks.

DOCARCH

Looking at all the charts I would not be surprised to see Wicklow (and possibly Dublin) go Red warning for a period overnight/early tomorow morning.

Not made with hands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122927758#Comment_122927758

If they cancel the toy show and it turns out to be a damp squid met eireann will never hear the end of it.

Reckless Abandonment

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122927758#Comment_122927758

Yeah was thinking orange definitely. For dublin, especially the mountains/foothills the wind direction will hit them hard

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122927770#Comment_122927770

Given strongest winds due to hit Dublin early tommorow morning, I think the Toy Show is safe!

Condor24

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122927770#Comment_122927770

I think the damp squid will be fairly well blow dried by the gales tomorrow. The worst may be after midnight toward dawn so I'd say they'll not cancel. But depends on warnings.

Meteorite58

Models very much the same more or less, HARMONIE is that bit stronger, GFS/ WRF bit stronger but European models now firmly the strongest. Very strong winds up to 130km/h overland in parts see charts below, possible counties in Red for a time. Windy , blustery day to follow Saturday with squally showers.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122927786#Comment_122927786

what counties look like getting the worst of it inland? My very basic knowledge shows east Kerry north cork getting a good bashing? Or am I totally off!

Not made with hands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122927774#Comment_122927774

I see on met eireann now strongest winds not until 4am. If the squid is out he won't be out during the late late show.