Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

I think it would be FG that would cop it if they go have to go back to the polls all because Harris wouldn't form a govt. unless he gets a turn as being the leader. FF have every right to have the role of Taoiseach for the full term given they have 10 more seats. Harris isn't like very much as it is, if he's seen to be petulant and throwing his toys out of the pram because he can't have a turn at Taoiseach it won't play well with voters.

They need to accept reality now as they are the junior party of any proposed coalition as they have 10 fewer seats.

It's worse than 200 times when you compare SFs 22.5% decline to FG's 0.5% gain.

FGs FPV INCREASED by 0.5% this election vs 2020.

FG on the way up, marginally. SF on the way down, heavily.

FG + 0.5%

SF - 22.5%

Massive difference between the two parties performance and really highlights the decline of SF.

In 2020, SF got 80k more first preference votes than FG.

in 2024, FG got 40k more first preference votes than SF.

SF had 4 seats in 2010. What they did in 2020 astounded me. They have solidified their position. That is a major success by any stretch of the imagination. Social Democrats are the same in that they have come from nowhere 2-6-11. The opposition is building...

Once again you are pretty much on your own with this sole Taoiseach notion.

Even watching prime time last night it wasn't suggested by anybody.

Rotating Taoiseach is here to stay.

Even watching prime time last night it wasn't suggested by anybody.

Rotating Taoiseach is here to stay.

Well it seems Primetime is not the oracle on this. OF course FF is likely to succumb to FG on this, Martin has already done this and will do whatever it takes to stay in power, but that doesn't mean all of them are happy with it.

While Fine Gael is pushing for the rotating taoiseach deal to be on the table, one Fianna Fáil TD said it should be scrapped completely, with Micheál Martin to be taoiseach for the full government term.

Fianna Fáil TDs also want the Department of Justice, and while Jim O’Callaghan and James Browne are viewed as possible picks for justice minister, the case is also being made for Darragh O’Brien, who is seen as having a “stronger presence”.

Louth TD Erin McGreehan said Fianna Fáil should be “unapologetic” in government negotiations because it is the largest party in the Dáil.

“When things are being divvied up and worked through, we must be very confident and proud of that,” she said.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael favour Independents for coalition over Labour Party | Irish Independent

I know they will give Mr Lowry another go at the trough but the Healy Raes would be a disaster for them. Too unpredictable.

So, enlighten us all then with the major policy differences between them. I'm sure many would like to hear.

But I'm the one who thinks there's no difference in their policies remember….two cheeks of the same arse and all that…so how could I possibly explain 🤣

Don't worry, I'm well aware of the history a chara. But there are many out there who view them as basically the same whether you like it or not. That's a fact.

The problem for Sinn Fein with that is that there are very many in both Labour and Social Democrats who don't want anything to do with them because of the baggage and would hold their noses and go in with Fine Gael instead. Until Sinn Fein address the Ellis/Cullinane/Ferris type legacy, they won't attract coalition partners.

The revitalised Labour and Social Democrats parties will show the tired old Sinn Fein what a real opposition can do.

So now you think opposition can achieve?

The pivoting never ends if there's a chance to have a go at the Shinners.
Lab and the Soc Dems never forced the civil war parties to tacitly merge, Lab were happy like the Greens to settle for titbits and decimation.
There'll be no Left alliance until the likes of labour and the Greens grow up and smell the roses. Looks like at least half of Lab are buying into that. The Greens…well they are dead to us for a decade at least so materially out of the next chapter in the chnaging dynamic.

How are you with a raft of parish pump politicians part steering the good ship Ireland or are you going to pivot away from your previous opinions on that too?.

Given the low standard of what you have admitted was the second worst opposition in Irish political history, I am sure that Labour and the Social Democrats can achieve an increase in their vote at the next election.

I want a stable government with a Green tinge. If that Green tinge is lost, I won't be short in criticising them for that. On the rest, the steady as she goes management of the economy and public finances will be the other most crucial aspect.