Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

If you are concerned about me having sleepless nights worrying about this mythical united left then you can stop wasting your time and use that time to take a look around you at the real political landscape

Yesterday Ged Nash of Labour told SF that they could piss off with their coalition of the left in opposition now that they have no chance of entering government when they were actively targeting Labour during the election by not telling their supporters to transfer to Labour. Last night we had the car crash TV of Maire Sherlock on her first day as a T.D. making the decision for Labour that they were ruling out entering government and going with this SF coalition of the left in opposition.

Sinead Gibney of the SD,s on the same programme when asked about this revelation of Sherlock`s told both Labour and SF that in essence they could both piss off with this coalition of the left in opposition and if they get what they want in talks with FG & FF they would enter government.

Sherlock is green behind the ears politically, but there are older and wiser heads in both Labour, SDs and even SPBP that see this SF idea as nothing more than SF realising they have only two ways of getting their hands on power.

Move towards the center to attract more votes, as Mick Barry of SPBP believes they are which comes with a major risk as was seen by their drop from 36% in pollsO or gobble up smaller parties on the left to get them to the numbers required. Labour do not have to look far back in their history to see what that entail the last time they got involved in a similar coalition with the Workers Party, a SF offshoot, which resulted in them being gobbled up by the WP where they were then decimated.

In 2020 (based on wikipedia, so blame them if numbers are wrong) the total number of votes was 2,201,192. The total for 2024 was 2,218,295, so the total who voted did creep up a little but the likelihood is that the overall percentage is still down on last election (as if it's out by 500k now, it must have been similarly wrong then).

And yep, we'd be at 69.5% turnout if the 500k figure is accurate.

Is that SF voter maths you are displaying there? Sounds about right.

You are comparing the decline as a percentage of the total vote, not as a percentage of the parties individual vote.

The fact is that the SF FPV dive bombed by 22.5%.

More than 1 out of every 5 people that voted First Preference for SF in 2020 did not do so in 2024.

That is a vote in freefall and dropping at over 200 times the rate of FGs decline.

Soc Dems and Labour could well pass you on the way up at the next election, if the 22.5% decline is maintained.

Agreed.

If SF continue their 22.5% decline into GE 2029, Soc Dems and Labour could well have out grown and overtaken them in the seat count.

SF landing at on or below 30 seats & Soc Dems + Labour at 30- 35 seats.

The exit poll found only a marginal difference between FF and FG voters in their mutual second preferences - 30% v. 32% going to the other party. Nor did the exit poll show any advantage for FF over FG in terms of transfers from Opposition party voters but the election outcome may tell a different tale.

Here is an interesting analysis from Paul Hosford, an Examiner journalist I haven't noticed before.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-41528903.html

To claims that FG lost out because so many TDs retired, Hosford points out that

The party had 17 constituencies in which it had to win back a seat being vacated by an incumbent retiring. It did so in 13 — Carlow-Kilkenny, Cavan-Monaghan, Clare, Cork East, Cork North-West, Cork South-Central, Dublin Bay North, Dublin Rathdown, Dublin West, Galway East, Laois, Louth and Mayo. 

That leaves just four seats where FG lost out after their TD retired and I think Meath West is the only clear case that can be ascribed to an incumbent ( Damien English) not contesting the election. Of the other three lost seats, I agree with Hosford that Joe McHugh would not have beaten out the Mica candidate in Donegal while the losses in Wexford and Kerry are down to poor candidate selections rather than the retirements of Brendan Griffin and Paul Kehoe (the FG candidates in Donegal also performed poorly but that didn't affect the result).

So the "retired incumbent" theory does not explain FG's 10 seat deficit compared to FF. The real question is how FF won 48 seats with just 21.9% of the vote. In the past, only the two largest parties with >25% of the vote normally got "bonus" seats, typically by picking up a second seat in four or five seaters. FF used to be the chief beneficiary of this systemic feature (partly balancing out FF's transfer toxicity under Haughey).

So how did FF get these bonus seats with marginally more votes than FG and no greater share of transfers (according to the exit poll)?

I agree with Hosford that Simon Harris is safe for now as FG Leader but Leo was smart to jump ship and spare himself the torture of three election campaigns this year. There would be a heave underway now to ditch Leo if he had led FG to this result (i.e. playing the junior partner in an FF-led government) but the party embraced Simon's "new energy" with such gusto over the past six months, that they can't cut him loose now.

🤣 You are **** it!

Of course it is.

 Simon Harris is safe for now as FG Leader but Leo was smart to jump ship and spare himself the torture of three election campaigns this year. There would be a heave underway now to ditch Leo if he had led FG to this result (i.e. playing the junior partner in an FF-led government) but the party embraced Simon's "new energy" with such gusto over the past six months, that they can't cut him loose now.

I guess the final verdict on SH's leadership in the election just gone will hinge on the coalition deal; if there is 'parity of esteem' or something close to it then ultimately it would have made little difference if FG had finished on a similar seat total to FF and the actual disparity in seats will be ascribed to the vagaries of PR-STV and be pretty much forgotten as the new government gets into its stride…

50000 a year?

Even if it's 10000 a year it's clear they are not interested in government.

A debating society it is then.

"parity of esteem" is a good bargaining pitch for the Blueshirts/IT readers but it won't wash with Micheál.

We're not talking about the two communities in N. Ireland with a built-in majority/minority, we're talking about government formation in this democracy i.e. getting a majority in Dáil Éireann where there is a clear disparity between two parties as a result of a democratic election.

We had an experiment with a rotating Taoiseach when the two parties had equal numbers in the Dáil. It worked reasonably smoothly (at least until the referendums, then Leo jumped and the elections took hold) but that is no reason to repeat the dose now that its raison d'être is gone. FF/FG will again split Finance/DEPR and they may rotate.

In any event, FG TDs won't let Simon bargain away their share of Departments to get himself a spell as Taoiseach. Simon will be Tánaiste and get his pick of Departments. He might chose any one of them except Health (where he brought down the previous government and was sidelined in the pandemic) or Higher Ed. (where he failed again although he only had to lash out the funds). Micheál will want FF to be the first Minister for Domestic Affairs i.e. a stronger Justice Minister but otherwise I'd say FF will be flexible on Ministerial roles but rigid a majority at Cabinet. (Collective responsibility is grand in principle but numbers count behind those closed doors).

FF might give FG the next European Commission nomination. By the time Micheál McGrath finishes his (first) term, we will probably have had another general election.

Here's a thought - will the parties back a single candidate for the Áras? FG have a very poor record on Presidential elections. They might have a chance if the find someone acceptable whom FF can also back.

You are well wrong there.

I don't see anybody in FF suggesting a non rotating Taoiseach.

FF only have FG to work with.

FF have zero leverage here.

The problem with this whole idea of a collation of the left is SF.

As long as SF are the lynchpin of it with all their baggage their cannot be a realistic collation of the left.

Plus there are many who even wonder if SF are a party of the left.

If it ere a case that Labour or the SDs were the biggest party and only needed SF as some sort of a junior partner then you might be on to something.