General Election 2024 - Predict the Result

There is literally no argument for SF agreeing to go into Government with FF. And Vice Versa . If that happens they have made mugs out of the electorate like we've never seen before.

The arguement from the SF pov is to get into government and get some of their policies implemented. They're not going to have enough to dominate a government, but their choice is to go into government this time or risk further decline on the opposition benches. For some of their lead players, they won't have too many future chances of a Ministerial seat, so that brings a certain edge to the negotiations.

My prediction is an SF/FF govt, supported by some or all of Labour, SD, Green.

You are not doing the maths correctly. If the exit poll is correct 40.5% of the vote gives them 70 seats. However they are transferring exceptionally strong between each other. With the fractured amount of other parties that will give them a 20%+ seat bonus. The Sunday Independent did a second preference poll last Sunday and they were doing as well of not better than SF from Independents and other parties with the exception of PBP.

I be expecting them to hit the mid 80's on those figures. Elections in Ireland are won on transfers 86 it is

It's more or less straight maths and understanding PR as well as looking at other factors.

However a few things surprising me FG even though they will be very near FF on vote percentage are going to underperform. Some major slip ups on canditate selection in cconstituencies. Running two candidates in Cork SW, Kerry candidate selection seems an issue, Carlow Kilkenny running three candidates, Clare a 4 seater running 3 candidates, three in East Galway and it dose not end there. Even the way Simon Harris has such a high vote it could cost FG a second seat in Wicklow. The masters of PR have slipped up today.

I am surprised the way the GP has collapsed, I had taught they might have being able to stay above Lab abd SD in a couple more constituencies. But it's Lab and SD day on the center left.

Independents are surprising me as well. They are

Knew FF and FG would be a bit above 80. They might not make 86 but they will ve within two of it I say

And if you read my post above I explained that they have under performed compared to there normal PR performance.

Tremendous performance by Matt Carthy as Director of Elections. Pearce was trying to give credit to MLMD that she knocked the ball out of the park. Matt got the canditate selection action right as in the number and the area they canvassed. PD left a seat behind him in Donegal by topping the poll as much as FG did that in canditate selection the Ind seat was up for grabs. Compared that to MC in Cavan Monoghan where he managed to prevent himself from topping the poll knowing he would pick up transfers. However he was not willing to do a Garrett Fitzgerald in the late 80's where he placed himself third of the three FG canditates in a four seater to sweep three seats. He put the no hoper ahead of his stronger running mate. Leo did a MC in his constituency last time I think by having his running mate ahead of him or very near him on the first count I am not sure if he brought him in with him. Willie O Dea has had various opportunities to bring in a running mate but his ego about topping the poll has cost FF a second seat in LC numerous times.

Yes FG had a lot of new canditates but they made a hash of there canditate selection. Charlie Flanagan showed in Offally the right sort of choice. Aird might have been old but he served his time one canditate get the seat secured and look at real sucession in an election or two'⁹s time.

In '97 John O Donoghue FF created the Healy Rae dynasty to an extend. He did not want JHR suceeding John O Leary after he retired so he got JOL son selected who was not involved in politics. And as they say the rest is history

FG the masters of PR for the last 80 years have f@@ked up this time. Even FF have generally had a better canditate strategy although not as good as SF's this time or FG historically

FG replaced Charlie 68 with 64 year old poll topper Willie Aird - was that wrong.
Nolan poll topping in Offaly and Stanley likely in Laois big sting for SF

McEntee definitely gone.

Gone back to Leinster house.

FG ran one too many in Mayo

Looks entirely possible in Dublin south central that that'll return 3 SF 1 SD and 1 PBP if that transpires then that would be extraordinary vote/transfer management accidental or not.

Nearly 60 % of people didn’t vote for FF/FG is a huge number of the electorate not voting for them ie the government compared to the 70s & 80s when only 20 % of people didn’t vote for either party .

No it will not Catherine Ardagh will win a seat for FF. There will be two SF and a PBP seat. The last seat is between Lab, SD and the third SF canditate. Lab will be dependent on a strong transfer from the GP to be pushed ahead of the SD canditate. If notbits an SD seat. The Aontu transfer will be interesting as well. If Lab get ahead of SD they will benefit from FG canditate elimination as well.

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