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General Election 2024 - Predict the Result

  • 01-11-2024 01:56PM
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,335 ✭✭✭✭


    So it looks like the election will be on Friday 29th November as per O'Gorman's wishes. Possibly a week later but unlikely.

    Please provide a prediction to your expected result.

    The results in 2020 were as follows:

    FF: 38
    SF: 37
    FG: 35
    Greens: 12
    Lab: 6
    SDs: 6
    S-PBP: 5
    Aontu: 1
    Independents: 20
    Total = 160

    The new Dail will have even more seats ⇒ 174 TDs

    The template is as follows:

    Fianna Fail:

    Sinn Fein:

    Fine Gael:

    Greens:

    Labour:

    Social Democrats:

    S-PBP:

    Aontu:

    Independent Ireland:

    Independents:

    Note: I will do my own prediction later.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?

    Post edited by Necro on


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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,001 ✭✭✭scottser


    I have never lived under a government that I actually voted for, and I imagine this time will be no different. Another FG/FF reacharound is about all we can expect, unfortunately.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,436 ✭✭✭Hodors Appletart


    FF the largest party, with FG second largest. Indies taking a lot of seats, and the SDs topping up the FF/FG coalition bid.

    I think it's time for the SDs to get off the pot and go into gov.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,824 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Think it's time for Labour and SDs to get over it and come together to make a decent party either in opposition or government .

    (Sorry Cluedo, I know you want seat predictions . )



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,622 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    This is a more interesting poll outcome - the make up of the next government, rather than numbers of seats.

    Who would benefit from this? From previous left mergers, the whole often ends up being smaller than the sum of the parts.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,017 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    Maybe knock that first digit off the Greens from the previous result, the dildo of consequences is coming in unlubed for the GP this time.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,824 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Have to be a coalition if going into government to make any impact at all .. In opposition not much benefit I suppose I agree

    . Less leader speaking time as a negative .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭Packrat


    Hopefully. With barbs.. but there's still a gullible greenie/left group who own nothing/do nothing that is affected by the looney taxes stick, and they'll undoubtedly vote in a few of them off the bleating about the Spanish floods all the while with their hand out for more handouts.

    “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,273 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    yep us woke elite green voters don't really care about a few euro taxes on fuel anyway as we're all loaded, but it's not like these taxes will magically disappear when there are no greens in the next government.

    i don't get why people who voted green before wouldn't vote for them this time, they pretty much stuck to their manifesto.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭Packrat


    That's pretty much what I was saying. Whether by being king maker or because it suited FFG, the GP got more of their significant legislation through than either of their larger partners.

    Where I disagree with your post is on them all being loaded. Most greenies I know have more or less nothing and don't really participate in business/industry. A soft job which produces pretty much nothing of value, social housing over decades, one small newish electric car (fully grant aided) They'd be the hallmarks of the admittedly rural GP people I know. Obviously I accept that this isn't a representative sample nationally.

    “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,273 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    Generally we're portrayed as filthy rich not living in the real world of the hard pressed motorists and we vote Green to ease our consciousness or something.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,394 ✭✭✭antimatterx


    Fine Gael largest party. FG + FF majority without 3rd party support.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,019 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    I think FF will take most seats

    I do not think SF will have as good a result as last time



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭Packrat


    Well I'm sure some are, and yes I think there's definitely an urban upper middle class green voter who can afford the extra taxes and doesn't ultimately care about anyone who isn't like them. What % that is I don't know.

    As for not living in the real world, well that's a matter of opinion.

    My opinion would broadly concur with that pov.

    “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 98 ✭✭Tiger20


    FF 43

    FG 39

    SF 32

    Lab 8

    SD 8

    Greens 7

    S- PBP 6

    Aontu 4

    Independents 27



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,335 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Thanks Tiger20. You read the brief!

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,840 ✭✭✭kabakuyu


    Fianna Fail:44

    Sinn Fein:36

    Fine Gael:36

    Greens:4

    Labour:7

    Social Democrats:7

    S-PBP:5

    Aontu:2

    Independents:32



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The brief that you didn't bother with yourself. Perhaps all of the other posters are going to make their predictions later as well!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,357 ✭✭✭OneEightSeven




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,335 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,335 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Fianna Fail: 44

    Sinn Fein: 29

    Fine Gael: 34

    Greens: 3

    Labour: 9

    Social Democrats: 10

    S-PBP: 5

    Aontu: 2

    Independent Ireland: 9

    Independents: 29

    Total: 174

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,566 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    If you think the Green vote is coming from social housing you simply don't have a clue.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Shan Doras


    FF : 47

    FG : 51

    Sinn Fein: 19

    Greens: 1 (Catherine Martin)

    Labour: 5

    Social Democrats: 4

    S-PBP: 2

    Aontu: 1

    Independent Ireland: 5

    Independents & Others: 35



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭Packrat


    Try re-reading what i wrote. All my local GP activists are in social housing bar one. I did say that this wouldn't be representative.

    “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,335 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    This predicts a complete wipout for the Greens. I don't think that will happen.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,578 ✭✭✭J.O. Farmer


    Greens down to 1 is unlikely but the more interesting thing is the gap between FG and FF.

    I think they should be within a couple of seats of each other but in constituencies where there is 3 seats between 2 parties if one party gains more of those than the other the gap could get relatively large.

    It raises the question at what point is rotating Taoiseach off the table. i think in the 17 seat difference the bigger party unlikely to give it up. I think up to 10 it's on the table, more than that and it will be interesting negotiations.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 696 ✭✭✭_BAA_RAM_EWE


    ...

    Post edited by _BAA_RAM_EWE on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,482 ✭✭✭History Queen


    I find this line of logic difficult to understand... you are advocating for voting for literally anyone on the ballot who is inexperienced rather than those who are experienced. It seems unlikely this will lead to a better outcome for anyone.

    I have my own issues with sone government policies and decisions, however, if I and others do as you suggest I'd anticipate that I'd be a lot more unhappy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 696 ✭✭✭_BAA_RAM_EWE


    ...

    Post edited by _BAA_RAM_EWE on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,482 ✭✭✭History Queen


    You realise that the civil servants, the people manning each department largely don't change between elections? I disagree that every department is a **** show, but even if you think it is... would a load of inexperienced politicians likely help ?

    TDs are voted for by the people in their local areas to represent them in the Dáil.

    Government Ministers are a bit like the managers of different parts of the country. They are chosen by the Taoiseach from among the TDs. Each Minister is in charge of a particular area, like health, education, or transport. Their job is to make decisions and run their departments to make things better for the people. So, if we follow your logic, the Taoiseach would have to pick Ministers from a pool of inexperienced TDs.

    To me, that sounds like a recipie for disaster, particularly if many of those unknown faces are not aligned to larger political parties and we end up with a rainbow coalition.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,140 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    Fianna Fail: 40

    Sinn Fein: 25

    Fine Gael: 45

    Greens: 3

    Labour: 7

    Social Democrats: 10

    S-PBP: 3

    Aontu: 4

    Independent Ireland: 8

    Independents: 29

    I think the SDs and Labour will squeak over the line in some constituencies thanks to the more centrist and middle-class SF voters being disillusioned with them. My local SF TD has been totally anonymous. Peadar Toibin will hammer home the message about Aontu being the only party in the Dail to oppose the referendums this year, and peel off some seats from more socially conservative FFG voters.



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